AC Milan
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
AC Milan were clear favourites.
AC Milan were the stronger side on L90 Strength (67 vs 14). Absences weigh more on AC Milan. AC Milan had 5 days of rest, Pisa 6.2 and had to travel 218 km.
Away travel218 kmRest days5 · 6.2Matches / 14d1 · 1
AC Milan76%
Draw16%
Pisa7%
AC Milan79%
Draw14%
Pisa7%
AC Milan77%
Draw16%
Pisa7%
AC Milan70%
Draw20%
Pisa10%
AC Milan78%
Draw15%
Pisa7%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 42%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Milano)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyLuca Zufferli
- Cards per match 2.9
- Penalties per match 0.21
- Matches 28
Team strength
AC Milan
Pisa
67
L90 StrengthIn forecast
14
65
Current StrengthIn forecast
12
72
AttackIn forecast
15
69
DefenceIn forecast
21
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisPisa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AC MilanPisa
1.57
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.43
0.57
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.43
1.41
xGVia Att/Def
0.83
0.81
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.53
+0.16
Goals minus xGContext
-0.40
86%
Scored inContext
29%
57%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
13.43
ShotsContext
9.29
4.29
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.80
32%
On target shareContext
22%
9.43
Shots in the boxContext
7.17
71%
Box shareContext
66%
12%
ConversionContext
5%
1.83
OffsidesContext
1.60
8.29
Shots allowedContext
16.43
3.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.57
3.00
BlocksContext
4.86
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.14
80%
Save rateContext
69%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
475
PassesContext
306
420
Accurate passesContext
236
88%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
7.01
Team ratingContext
6.72
10.00
FoulsContext
12.57
10.57
Fouls sufferedContext
12.43
1.43
Yellow cardsContext
1.29
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.14
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.43
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.43
1.43
xGVia Att/Def
0.83
0.75
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.53
+0.27
Goals minus xGContext
-0.40
90%
Scored inContext
29%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
13.70
ShotsContext
9.29
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.80
32%
On target shareContext
22%
9.50
Shots in the boxContext
7.17
72%
Box shareContext
66%
12%
ConversionContext
5%
1.71
OffsidesContext
1.60
8.80
Shots allowedContext
16.43
3.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.57
2.67
BlocksContext
4.86
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.14
75%
Save rateContext
69%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
480
PassesContext
306
427
Accurate passesContext
236
89%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
7.02
Team ratingContext
6.72
9.90
FoulsContext
12.57
10.90
Fouls sufferedContext
12.43
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.29
0.30
Red cardsContext
0.14
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
AC Milan
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Pisa
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel218 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| AC Milan |
Pisa |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5Serie A 2025-2026, 19 Oct | 6.2Serie A 2025-2026, 18 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 218 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
AC Milan
Confirmed XI
16M. Maignan(G)
31S. Pavlović
46M. Gabbia
5K. De Winter
14L. Modrić
33D. Bartesaghi
4S. Ricci
19Y. Fofana
56A. Saelemaekers
10Rafael Leão
7S. Giménez
Pisa
Confirmed XI
1A. Šemper(G)
4A. Caracciolo
39Raúl Albiol
5S. Canestrelli
94G. Bonfanti
14E. Akinsanmiro
20M. Aebischer
10M. Tramoni
15I. Touré
18M. Nzola
9H. Meister
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences AC Milan
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Pisa
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- AC Milan-1.1 pp
- Draw+0.6 pp
- Pisa+0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
AC Milan · Home
2.25points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-1
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.00
Pisa · Away
0.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | AC Milan | Pisa |
|---|---|---|
| Fiorentina | W 2–1 H | D 0–0 H |
| Napoli | W 2–1 H | L 2–3 A |
| Udinese | W 3–0 A | L 0–1 H |
| Bologna | W 1–0 H | L 0–4 A |
| Points | 12 of 12 · 3.00 per game | 1 of 12 · 0.25 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| AC Milan | Pisa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.57 | 0.43 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.57 | 1.43 | |
| Match goals | 2.14 | 1.86 | 2.99 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 43% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 29% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 29% | 42% |
| Clean sheets | 57% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 71% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| AC Milan | Pisa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.57 | 0.43 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.57 | 1.43 | |
| Match goals | 2.14 | 1.86 | 2.99 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 43% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 29% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 29% | 42% |
| Clean sheets | 57% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 71% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| AC Milan | Pisa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.20 | 3.57 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 6.29 | |
| Match total | 8.20 | 9.86 | 9.11 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 3/5 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 1/5 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 1/5 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.57 | 1.43 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.43 | |
| Match total | 3.57 | 2.86 | 3.89 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 4/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 3/7 | 14% 1/7 | |
| AC Milan | Pisa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.75 | 3.57 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.25 | 6.29 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 9.86 | 9.11 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 2/8 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 13% 1/8 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.43 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 1.43 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 2.86 | 3.89 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 14% 1/7 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Luca Zufferli Italy · 28 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.75league 3.80
Red cards0.11league 0.13
Cards 5+25%league 37%
Fouls23.8league 26.0
Penalties0.21league 0.24
Home wins61%league 37%
AC Milan1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- W27 Sep 24H · Lecce3–02
PisaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
AC Milan7 games · scored 11 · conceded 4
1
0-15
1
16-30
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
2
76-90
Pisa7 games · scored 3 · conceded 10
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
AC Milan10 games · scored 17 · conceded 8
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
4
31-45
2
4
46-60
6
1
61-75
4
1
76-90
Pisa7 games · scored 3 · conceded 10
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
