AC Milan vs Verona – 28 Dec 2025

Serie A Gameweek 17 Sun, Dec 28 · 11:30 Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milano

AC Milan 2nd · 32 pts · 15 played DWWWD

3–0Full time

Verona 18th · 12 pts · 15 played DLLWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

AC Milan were clear favourites.

AC Milan were the stronger side on L90 Strength (70 vs 24). Absences weigh more on Verona. AC Milan had 14 days of rest, Verona 13.9 and had to travel 141 km.

Away travel141 kmRest days14 · 13.9Matches / 14d1 · 1

AC Milan72%

Draw18%

Verona9%

Expected goals 2.21 – 0.67

AC Milan73%

Draw17%

Verona10%

Expected goals 2.36 – 0.76

AC Milan71%

Draw19%

Verona10%

Expected goals 2.14 – 0.67

AC Milan66%

Draw22%

Verona13%

Expected goals 1.97 – 0.75

AC Milan74%

Draw17%

Verona9%

Expected goals 2.44 – 0.75

Over 2.5 55% Both score 44% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Milano)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyMichael Fabbri

Cards per match 4.4
Penalties per match 0.11
Matches 62

Team strength

AC Milan

Verona

70 L90 StrengthIn forecast 24

66 Current StrengthIn forecast 16

72 AttackIn forecast 15

69 DefenceIn forecast 29

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

AC Milan

Attack—

Defense risk—

Verona

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

AC Milan

Verona

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.87

0.87 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.47

1.50 xGVia Att/Def 1.15

1.09 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.20

+0.10 Goals minus xGContext -0.28

93% Scored inContext 60%

47% Clean sheetsContext 20%

13.07 ShotsContext 12.00

4.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.60

35% On target shareContext 38%

8.80 Shots in the boxContext 7.33

68% Box shareContext 62%

12% ConversionContext 7%

1.93 OffsidesContext 2.31

10.87 Shots allowedContext 12.93

3.71 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.57

3.43 BlocksContext 4.27

3.15 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.14

82% Save rateContext 69%

52% PossessionIn forecast 39%

476 PassesContext 306

418 Accurate passesContext 223

88% Pass accuracyContext 73%

6.98 Team ratingContext 6.68

9.73 FoulsContext 17.20

11.73 Fouls sufferedContext 8.47

1.53 Yellow cardsContext 2.73

0.13 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 15 and 15 games

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

1.69 xGVia Att/Def 1.20

1.23 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.18

-0.19 Goals minus xGContext -0.10

90% Scored inContext 70%

40% Clean sheetsContext 20%

12.70 ShotsContext 11.40

4.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.70

36% On target shareContext 41%

8.10 Shots in the boxContext 7.60

63% Box shareContext 68%

12% ConversionContext 10%

1.89 OffsidesContext 2.50

12.00 Shots allowedContext 13.40

3.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.78

3.30 BlocksContext 4.60

3.22 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.22

85% Save rateContext 67%

52% PossessionIn forecast 40%

476 PassesContext 308

418 Accurate passesContext 222

88% Pass accuracyContext 72%

6.98 Team ratingContext 6.73

9.80 FoulsContext 17.10

12.10 Fouls sufferedContext 8.50

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 3.00

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

AC Milan

Rest14 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Verona

Rest13.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel141 km371 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	AC Milan	Verona
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	14Serie A 2025-2026, 14 Dec	13.9Serie A 2025-2026, 14 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	141 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	371 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 2	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	5.3	7.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

AC Milan Confirmed XI

3-5-2

16M. Maignan(G)

31S. Pavlović 5K. De Winter 23O. Tomori

33D. Bartesaghi 12A. Rabiot 14L. Modrić 8R. Loftus-Cheek 56A. Saelemaekers

11C. Pulišić 18C. Nkunku

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Verona Confirmed XI

3-5-1-1

1L. Montipò(G)

37A. Bella-Kotchap 15V. Nelsson 5Unai Núñez

12D. Bradarić 24A. Bernede 73Al Musrati 36C. Niasse 2D. Oyegoke

17Giovane

25D. Mosquera

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

AC Milan Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Verona Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.09 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

AC Milan+1.4 pp
Draw-0.8 pp
Verona-0.6 pp

Home / Away this season

AC Milan · Home 2.13points per game · 8 home games

W-D-L: 5-2-1
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 1.00

Verona · Away 0.75points per game · 8 away games

W-D-L: 1-3-4
Scored: 0.63
Conceded: 1.63

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 12 this season

Opponent	AC Milan	Verona
Sassuolo	D 2–2 H	L 0–1 H
Lazio	W 1–0 H	L 0–4 A
Inter	W 1–0 A	L 1–2 H
Parma	D 2–2 A	L 1–2 H
AS Roma	W 1–0 H	L 0–2 A
Atalanta	D 1–1 A	W 3–1 H
Pisa	D 2–2 H	D 0–0 A
Fiorentina	W 2–1 H	W 2–1 A
Juventus	D 0–0 A	D 1–1 H
Udinese	W 3–0 A	D 1–1 A
Lecce	W 2–0 A	D 0–0 A
Cremonese	L 1–2 H	D 0–0 H
Points	23 of 36 · 1.92 per game	11 of 36 · 0.92 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

8 AC Milan wins0 draws0 Verona wins

Goals per game2.13 – 0.75 Over 2.563% Both scored63% Clean sheets38% · 0%

15 Feb 2025AC Milan1–0Verona
20 Dec 2024Verona0–1AC Milan
17 Mar 2024Verona1–3AC Milan
23 Sep 2023AC Milan1–0Verona
4 Jun 2023AC Milan3–1Verona
16 Oct 2022Verona1–2AC Milan

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	AC Milan	Verona	Forecast
Scored per game	1.60	0.87
Conceded per game	0.87	1.47
Match goals	2.47	2.33	2.88
Over 1.5	67%	73%
Over 2.5	53%	53%	55%
Over 3.5	27%	27%
Both teams scored	53%	60%	44%
Clean sheets	47%	20%
Failed to score	7%	40%
Games	15	15

	AC Milan	Verona	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	1.10
Conceded per game	1.00	1.40
Match goals	2.50	2.50	2.88
Over 1.5	60%	70%
Over 2.5	50%	70%	55%
Over 3.5	40%	30%
Both teams scored	60%	70%	44%
Clean sheets	40%	20%
Failed to score	10%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	AC Milan	Verona	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	3.80
Corners conceded	4.62	4.47
Match total	8.62	8.27	8.83
Over 8.5	54% 7/13	47% 7/15
Over 9.5	23% 3/13	33% 5/15
Over 10.5	23% 3/13	20% 3/15
Cards
Cards	1.67	2.73
Opponent cards	2.27	1.87
Match total	3.94	4.60	4.08
Over 3.5	60% 9/15	73% 11/15
Over 4.5	40% 6/15	60% 9/15

	AC Milan	Verona	League
Corners
Corners won	3.56	4.00
Corners conceded	4.78	4.30
Match total	8.34	8.30	8.83
Over 8.5	44% 4/9	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	22% 2/9	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	22% 2/9	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	1.90	3.00
Opponent cards	2.50	2.00
Match total	4.40	5.00	4.08
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	70% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Michael Fabbri Italy · 62 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.10league 3.94

Red cards0.32league 0.17

Cards 5+35%league 40%

Fouls24.2league 26.0

Penalties0.11league 0.30

Home wins35%league 39%

AC Milan5 with this referee

Record2-3-0 Cards · opp.3.6 · 3.0 Pens for · against1 · 0 Reds2

D29 Dec 24H · AS Roma1–14
D9 Nov 24A · Cagliari3–32
W5 Nov 22H · Spezia2–16
W10 Sep 22A · Sampdoria2–12
D19 Feb 22A · Salernitana2–24

Verona6 with this referee

Record0-0-6 Cards · opp.3.3 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds3

L29 Nov 25A · Genoa1–23
L19 Jan 25H · Lazio0–36
L6 Jan 24A · Inter1–23
L14 Jan 23A · Inter0–13
L15 Aug 22H · Napoli2–52

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.