Ajax
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Ajax73.1%fair odds 1.37
Draw17.0%fair odds 5.88
NAC Breda9.9%fair odds 10.07
Expected goals2.45 – 0.80total 3.25
Likeliest score2–011.6%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
NAC Breda
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Ajax ↓ · NAC Breda → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 8.0 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.3 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.5 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 5.8 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Ajax goals, columns NAC Breda goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–011.6%8.62
- 3–09.5%10.57
- 2–19.3%10.72
- 1–09.1%11.00
- 1–18.0%12.45
- 3–17.6%13.15
- 4–05.8%17.30
- 4–14.6%21.52
- 0–04.3%23.33
- 2–23.7%26.68
Winning margin
29.7%
Ajax by 3+
fair 3.37
21.3%
Ajax by 2
fair 4.69
22.0%
Ajax by 1
fair 4.54
17.0%
Draw
fair 5.88
7.0%
NAC Breda by 1
fair 14.35
2.3%
NAC Breda by 2
fair 43.36
0.7%
NAC Breda by 3+
fair 153.06
Goal distribution
Total goals
4%0
12%1
21%2
22%3
18%4
23%5+
Ajax goals
9%0
21%1
26%2
21%3
23%4+
NAC Breda goals
45%0
36%1
14%2
4%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ajax win | 73.1% | 71.4% | +1.7 pp |
| Draw | 17.0% | 18.1% | -1.1 pp |
| NAC Breda win | 9.9% | 10.4% | -0.5 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 63.0% | 59.4% | +3.6 pp |
| Both teams score | 50.9% | 48.9% | +1.9 pp |
| Expected goals Ajax | 2.45 | 2.31 | +0.14 |
| Expected goals NAC Breda | 0.80 | 0.77 | +0.03 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Ajax win73.1%1.37
- Draw17.0%5.88
- NAC Breda win9.9%10.07
- Double chance Ajax or draw90.1%1.11
- Double chance Ajax or NAC Breda83.0%1.20
- Double chance NAC Breda or draw26.9%3.71
- Draw no bet Ajax88.0%1.14
- Draw no bet NAC Breda12.0%8.36
Goals
- Over 0.595.7%1.04
- Over 1.583.9%1.19
- Over 2.563.0%1.59
- Over 3.540.8%2.45
- Over 4.522.8%4.38
- Under 1.516.1%6.21
- Under 2.537.0%2.70
- Under 3.559.2%1.69
Both teams to score
- Yes50.9%1.97
- No49.1%2.03
- Yes and over 2.542.8%2.34
- Ajax win and yes32.6%3.07
- Draw and yes12.7%7.87
- NAC Breda win and yes5.5%18.04
Team goals
- Ajax over 0.591.3%1.09
- Ajax over 1.570.1%1.43
- Ajax over 2.544.2%2.26
- NAC Breda over 0.555.2%1.81
- NAC Breda over 1.519.3%5.19
- NAC Breda over 2.54.8%20.85
- Ajax clean sheet44.8%2.23
- NAC Breda clean sheet8.7%11.53
- Ajax win to nil40.5%2.47
- NAC Breda win to nil4.4%22.80
Handicap
- Ajax −1.551.1%1.96
- Ajax −2.529.7%3.37
- NAC Breda +1.548.9%2.04
- NAC Breda +2.570.3%1.42
- NAC Breda −1.53.0%33.79
- Ajax +1.597.0%1.03
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored55
Favourite won52.7%
Avg chance given to result43.1%
1X2 Brier0.560
Over 2.5 called right67.3%
BTTS called right58.2%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 6 | 38.1% | 16.7% |
| 40–50% | 17 | 44.1% | 35.3% |
| 50–60% | 17 | 56.1% | 58.8% |
| 60–70% | 8 | 63.5% | 75.0% |
| 70–80% | 5 | 75.6% | 80.0% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 80.7% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 33 of 55 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5631 | 0.5238 |
| Avg chance given to result | 42.6% | 45.7% |
| Favourite won | 48.5% | 60.6% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 33 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
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- ✗PSV Eindhoven 2–2 Ajax56·23·21
- ✗PEC Zwolle 0–2 GO Ahead Eagles43·26·31
- ✓NAC Breda 2–1 Heracles46·26·28
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 55 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.