Ajax
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Ajax were clear favourites.
Ajax were the stronger side on L90 Strength (57 vs 16). Ajax had 6.1 days of rest, NAC Breda 6.8 and had to travel 88 km.
Away travel88 kmRest days6.1 · 6.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Ajax73%
Draw17%
NAC Breda10%
Ajax72%
Draw18%
NAC Breda10%
Ajax73%
Draw17%
NAC Breda10%
Ajax66%
Draw20%
NAC Breda14%
Ajax71%
Draw18%
NAC Breda10%
Over 2.5 63%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Amsterdam)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsMarc Nagtegaal
- Cards per match 2.5
- Penalties per match 0.14
- Matches 35
Team strength
Ajax
NAC Breda
57
L90 StrengthIn forecast
16
53
Current StrengthIn forecast
14
66
AttackIn forecast
19
55
DefenceIn forecast
19
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNAC Breda
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AjaxNAC Breda
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.67
1.96
xGVia Att/Def
1.28
1.10
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.10
+0.04
Goals minus xGContext
-0.28
100%
Scored inContext
50%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
17.33
ShotsContext
11.17
7.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
43%
On target shareContext
34%
13.50
Shots in the boxContext
7.50
78%
Box shareContext
62%
12%
ConversionContext
9%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.25
10.83
Shots allowedContext
16.50
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.00
3.00
BlocksContext
4.00
3.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.17
75%
Save rateContext
69%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
542
PassesContext
351
477
Accurate passesContext
272
88%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
7.10
Team ratingContext
6.84
12.83
FoulsContext
12.17
12.33
Fouls sufferedContext
14.17
1.83
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.17
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.81
xGVia Att/Def
1.34
1.02
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.92
-0.21
Goals minus xGContext
-0.54
80%
Scored inContext
50%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
15.30
ShotsContext
11.10
5.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.25
37%
On target shareContext
31%
12.33
Shots in the boxContext
7.56
76%
Box shareContext
61%
11%
ConversionContext
7%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.00
10.70
Shots allowedContext
14.40
4.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.60
3.10
BlocksContext
3.30
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.70
73%
Save rateContext
66%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
535
PassesContext
405
465
Accurate passesContext
328
87%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
7.02
Team ratingContext
6.83
12.60
FoulsContext
10.70
13.50
Fouls sufferedContext
12.50
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Ajax
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km223 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
NAC Breda
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel88 km323 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Ajax |
NAC Breda |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 21 Sep | 6.8Eredivisie 2025-2026, 20 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 88 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 223 km | 323 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Ajax
Confirmed XI
1V. Jaroš(G)
5O. Wijndal
4K. Itakura
37J. Šutalo
3A. Gaaei
8K. Taylor
18D. Klaassen
11M. Godts
10O. Gloukh
17O. Edvardsen
19D. Konadu
NAC Breda
Confirmed XI
99D. Bielica(G)
4B. Kemper
22R. Hillen
12L. Greiml
2B. Lucassen
16M. Balard
90L. Holtby
14K. Sowah
10M. Nassoh
32J. Talvitie
17S. van Hooijdonk
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Ajax
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
NAC Breda
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Ajax-0.2 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- NAC Breda+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Ajax · Home
3.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-0
- Scored
- 2.33
- Conceded
- 0.33
NAC Breda · Away
0.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-2
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 2.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Ajax | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| Heracles | W 2–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Points | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Ajax wins0 draws1 NAC Breda wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.50
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 6 Apr 2025Ajax3–1NAC Breda
- 18 Aug 2024NAC Breda2–1Ajax
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Ajax | NAC Breda | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.67 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.67 | 3.25 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 67% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 50% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Ajax | NAC Breda | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.67 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.67 | 3.25 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 67% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 50% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Ajax | NAC Breda | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.67 | 3.83 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.83 | 4.33 | |
| Match total | 12.50 | 8.16 | 10.13 |
| Over 8.5 | 83% 5/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 4/6 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 4/6 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.83 | 1.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.17 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 4.17 | 3.68 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 2/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 2/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Ajax | NAC Breda | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.30 | 3.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 10.80 | 7.90 | 10.13 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 3.40 | 3.68 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Marc Nagtegaal Netherlands · 35 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.43league 3.47
Red cards0.09league 0.20
Cards 5+20%league 36%
Fouls19.3league 22.6
Penalties0.14league 0.20
Home wins54%league 47%
Ajax6 with this referee
Record4-1-1
Cards · opp.0.7 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W24 Aug 25H · Heracles2–00
- W13 Apr 25A · Willem II2–10
- W16 Feb 25H · Heracles4–00
- L8 Dec 24A · AZ Alkmaar1–22
- D21 Sep 24A · GO Ahead Eagles1–12
NAC Breda2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.3.5 · 1.0
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds1
- L4 May 25H · PEC Zwolle1–33
- L9 Aug 24A · Groningen1–44
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Ajax6 games · scored 12 · conceded 6
1
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
4
1
31-45
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
1
76-90
NAC Breda6 games · scored 6 · conceded 10
1
3
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
61-75
2
4
76-90
Ajax10 games · scored 16 · conceded 13
1
1
0-15
4
2
16-30
4
2
31-45
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
5
3
76-90
NAC Breda10 games · scored 8 · conceded 18
1
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
3
61-75
3
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
