Ajax
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel35 kmRest days7 · 7.1Matches / 14d2 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Ajax—%
Draw—%
Utrecht—%
Weather (Amsterdam)
Forecast from 21 Nov
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Ajax and Utrecht. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Ajax
+1.07
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for2.03xG against0.96
-
Trend
Utrecht
89%
Both teams scored
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Alert
Utrecht
2.4
Goals conceded away per match
Last 5 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Ajax
3.0
Goals scored per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Streak
Ajax
5
Unbeaten in a row
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Unbeaten in a row -
Insight
Utrecht
−0.27
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.38xG against1.65
Attack
-
Insight
Ajax
+1.07
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for2.03xG against0.96
-
Trend
Ajax
3.0
Goals scored per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Utrecht
89%
Both teams scored
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Streak
Ajax
9
Scoring in a row
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row -
Trend
Utrecht
1.8
Goals scored per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Defence
-
Alert
Utrecht
2.4
Goals conceded away per match
Last 5 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Utrecht
2.9
Goals conceded per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Utrecht
−0.27
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.38xG against1.65
Team strength
AjaxUtrecht
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
53
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
66
AttackIn forecast
32
55
DefenceIn forecast
31
63
Form indexContext
65
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisUtrecht
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AjaxUtrecht
3.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.78
1.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.89
2.06
xGVia Att/Def
1.31
1.12
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.72
+0.94
Goals minus xGContext
+0.47
100%
Scored inContext
89%
22%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
22.78
ShotsContext
12.89
8.11
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.33
36%
On target shareContext
34%
16.22
Shots in the boxContext
10.25
71%
Box shareContext
69%
13%
ConversionContext
14%
2.13
OffsidesContext
2.00
10.00
Shots allowedContext
18.11
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.00
2.67
BlocksContext
4.33
3.13
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
74%
Save rateContext
57%
62%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
581
PassesContext
391
516
Accurate passesContext
313
89%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.03
Team ratingContext
6.55
9.56
FoulsContext
16.33
9.89
Fouls sufferedContext
10.67
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.11
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.80
2.03
xGVia Att/Def
1.38
0.96
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.65
+0.87
Goals minus xGContext
+0.52
100%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
21.70
ShotsContext
13.70
7.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
36%
On target shareContext
33%
15.40
Shots in the boxContext
10.67
71%
Box shareContext
68%
13%
ConversionContext
14%
2.33
OffsidesContext
1.83
9.50
Shots allowedContext
17.60
3.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.80
2.60
BlocksContext
4.10
2.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.90
74%
Save rateContext
57%
62%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
576
PassesContext
388
509
Accurate passesContext
312
88%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.05
Team ratingContext
6.60
9.80
FoulsContext
15.80
10.50
Fouls sufferedContext
10.20
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Ajax
WWDDW
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km115 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 63 · 11 pts vs 9.5 for an average club · +0.9 vs expected
Utrecht
DWLWW
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel35 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 65 · 10 pts vs 8.3 for an average club · +4.2 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Ajax |
Utrecht |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Eredivisie 2026-2027, 29 Nov | 7.1Eredivisie 2026-2027, 29 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 35 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 115 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.2 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Ajax
Last XI · not confirmed
1M. ter Stegen(G)
5O. Wijndal
36D. Janse
30A. Bouwman
2Lucas Rosa
24J. Mokio
4S. Amrabat
18D. Klaassen
10O. Gloukh
38Marcos Leonardo
8J. Brandt
Utrecht
Last XI · not confirmed
22S. Padt(G)
5N. Panagiotou
3M. Didden
2S. Horemans
92A. Zagré
38O. Agougil
8J. van Overeem
23N. Vesterlund
11Ángel Alarcón
20D. de Wit
10Y. Cathline
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Ajax
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Utrecht
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Ajax · Home
1.20points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-1
- Scored
- 2.20
- Conceded
- 1.80
Utrecht · Away
1.40points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-2
- Scored
- 1.60
- Conceded
- 2.40
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | Ajax | Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| Groningen | W 5–2 A | L 1–2 A |
| Excelsior | D 2–2 H | W 2–1 A |
| Willem II | W 5–1 H | W 3–1 H |
| PSV Eindhoven | L 1–3 H | L 1–6 H |
| Points | 7 of 12 · 1.75 per game | 6 of 12 · 1.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
0 Ajax wins1 draws4 Utrecht wins
Goals per game1.40 – 2.80
Over 2.5100%
Both scored80%
Clean sheets0% · 20%
- 10 May 2026Ajax1–2Utrecht
- 9 Nov 2025Utrecht2–1Ajax
- 20 Apr 2025Utrecht4–0Ajax
- 4 Dec 2024Ajax2–2Utrecht
- 22 Oct 2023Utrecht4–3Ajax
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Ajax | Utrecht | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.00 | 1.78 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 2.89 | |
| Match goals | 4.33 | 4.67 | |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 78% | 100% | |
| Over 3.5 | 78% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 78% | 89% | |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 11% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| Ajax | Utrecht | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.70 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 2.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.90 | 4.40 | |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 3.5 | 70% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% | |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Ajax | Utrecht | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.88 | 4.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.00 | 5.25 | |
| Match total | 9.88 | 9.50 | 10.39 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.11 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.78 | 0.89 | |
| Match total | 3.78 | 3.00 | 2.77 |
| Over 3.5 | 56% 5/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 3/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Ajax | Utrecht | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.88 | 4.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.00 | 5.33 | |
| Match total | 9.88 | 10.00 | 10.39 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 0.90 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 2.80 | 2.77 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Ajax9 games · scored 27 · conceded 12
2
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
7
3
31-45
3
2
46-60
7
1
61-75
6
4
76-90
Utrecht9 games · scored 16 · conceded 26
1
4
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
4
31-45
3
7
46-60
4
2
61-75
6
7
76-90
Ajax10 games · scored 29 · conceded 12
2
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
7
3
31-45
4
2
46-60
7
1
61-75
6
4
76-90
Utrecht10 games · scored 19 · conceded 28
1
4
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
4
31-45
6
8
46-60
4
2
61-75
6
8
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
