Eredivisie Gameweek 14 Sun, Nov 29 · 13:30 Stadion Feijenoord, Rotterdam
Feyenoord 1st · 23 pts · 9 played
VS— Compare
Ajax 4th · 18 pts · 9 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel57 kmRest days4.7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Feyenoord—%
Draw—%
Ajax—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Rotterdam)

Forecast from 14 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Feyenoord and Ajax. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

FeyenoordAjax
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
59 Current StrengthIn forecast 53
76 AttackIn forecast 66
61 DefenceIn forecast 55
92 Form indexContext 63
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Feyenoord

Attack—
Defense risk—

Ajax

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

FeyenoordAjax
3.44 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 3.00
1.11 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.33
2.90 xGVia Att/Def 2.06
1.05 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.12
+0.54 Goals minus xGContext +0.94
100% Scored inContext 100%
44% Clean sheetsContext 22%
21.33 ShotsContext 22.78
8.22 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 8.11
39% On target shareContext 36%
15.00 Shots in the boxContext 16.22
70% Box shareContext 71%
16% ConversionContext 13%
1.83 OffsidesContext 2.13
11.11 Shots allowedContext 10.00
3.88 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00
3.25 BlocksContext 2.67
2.44 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.13
71% Save rateContext 74%
54% PossessionIn forecast 62%
490 PassesContext 581
428 Accurate passesContext 516
87% Pass accuracyContext 89%
7.22 Team ratingContext 7.03
8.78 FoulsContext 9.56
12.22 Fouls sufferedContext 9.89
1.22 Yellow cardsContext 2.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games
3.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.90
1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20
2.42 xGVia Att/Def 2.03
1.09 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.96
+0.98 Goals minus xGContext +0.87
100% Scored inContext 100%
30% Clean sheetsContext 30%
18.70 ShotsContext 21.70
7.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.80
40% On target shareContext 36%
12.80 Shots in the boxContext 15.40
68% Box shareContext 71%
18% ConversionContext 13%
2.71 OffsidesContext 2.33
12.50 Shots allowedContext 9.50
4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.70
3.67 BlocksContext 2.60
2.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.89
62% Save rateContext 74%
50% PossessionIn forecast 62%
473 PassesContext 576
410 Accurate passesContext 509
87% Pass accuracyContext 88%
7.06 Team ratingContext 7.05
10.20 FoulsContext 9.80
12.70 Fouls sufferedContext 10.50
1.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.90
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Feyenoord
Rest4.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 92 · 15 pts vs 8.3 for an average club · +5.2 vs expected
  • W17 OctA · Telstar4–32.1 xPts
  • W14 OctH · Como3–21.6 xPts
  • W10 OctH · AZ Alkmaar2–01.8 xPts
  • W20 SepH · Utrecht5–02.3 xPts
  • W13 SepA · PEC Zwolle7–02.0 xPts
Ajax
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel57 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 63 · 11 pts vs 9.5 for an average club · +0.9 vs expected
  • W18 OctA · Groningen5–21.4 xPts
  • D10 OctH · NEC Nijmegen1–12.1 xPts
  • D19 SepH · Excelsior2–22.1 xPts
  • W15 SepH · Willem II5–12.5 xPts
  • W12 SepA · Fortuna Sittard5–11.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Feyenoord Ajax
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match4.7UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 24 Nov7Eredivisie 2026-2027, 22 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km57 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 41 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one6.17

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Feyenoord Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Telstar (A) 4–3, 17 Oct
1T. Ernst(G)
35Mika Màrmol 24T. Kraaijeveld 4T. Watanabe 26G. Read
34C. Vanhoutte 8G. Zechiël
27G. Diarra 14S. Steijn 23A. Hadj Moussa
19Nacho Ferri
Ajax Last XI · not confirmed
4-3-3 · vs Groningen (A) 5–2, 18 Oct
1M. ter Stegen(G)
5O. Wijndal 36D. Janse 30A. Bouwman 2Lucas Rosa
24J. Mokio 4S. Amrabat 18D. Klaassen
10O. Gloukh 38Marcos Leonardo 8J. Brandt

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Feyenoord Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Ajax Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Feyenoord · Home 2.00points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
2-2-0
Scored
2.75
Conceded
1.00
Ajax · Away 3.00points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
4-0-0
Scored
4.00
Conceded
0.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

OpponentFeyenoordAjax
Telstar W 4–3 A W 4–0 A
PEC Zwolle W 7–0 A W 2–0 A
NEC Nijmegen W 3–1 A D 1–1 H
Points9 of 9 · 3.00 per game7 of 9 · 2.33 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

1 Feyenoord wins1 draws3 Ajax wins
Goals per game1.20 – 1.40 Over 2.540% Both scored40% Clean sheets20% · 40%
  • 22 Mar 2026Feyenoord1–1Ajax
  • 14 Dec 2025Ajax2–0Feyenoord
  • 2 Feb 2025Ajax2–1Feyenoord
  • 30 Oct 2024Feyenoord0–2Ajax
  • 27 Sep 2023Ajax0–4Feyenoord

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

FeyenoordAjaxForecast
Scored per game 3.443.00
Conceded per game 1.111.33
Match goals 4.564.33
Over 1.5 89%100%
Over 2.5 78%78%
Over 3.5 78%78%
Both teams scored 56%78%
Clean sheets 44%22%
Failed to score 0%0%
Games99
FeyenoordAjaxForecast
Scored per game 3.402.70
Conceded per game 1.701.20
Match goals 5.103.90
Over 1.5 100%90%
Over 2.5 90%70%
Over 3.5 90%70%
Both teams scored 70%70%
Clean sheets 30%30%
Failed to score 0%10%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

FeyenoordAjaxLeague
Corners
Corners won6.226.88
Corners conceded4.113.00
Match total10.339.8810.39
Over 8.567% 6/963% 5/8
Over 9.567% 6/950% 4/8
Over 10.567% 6/938% 3/8
Cards
Cards1.222.00
Opponent cards1.441.78
Match total2.663.782.77
Over 3.544% 4/956% 5/9
Over 4.511% 1/933% 3/9
FeyenoordAjaxLeague
Corners
Corners won5.206.88
Corners conceded3.703.00
Match total8.909.8810.39
Over 8.550% 5/1063% 5/8
Over 9.550% 5/1050% 4/8
Over 10.550% 5/1038% 3/8
Cards
Cards1.301.90
Opponent cards1.402.00
Match total2.703.902.77
Over 3.540% 4/1060% 6/10
Over 4.520% 2/1040% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Feyenoord9 games · scored 31 · conceded 10
4 1 0-15
5 1 16-30
8 1 31-45
5 2 46-60
7 3 61-75
2 2 76-90
Ajax9 games · scored 27 · conceded 12
2 1 0-15
2 1 16-30
7 3 31-45
3 2 46-60
7 1 61-75
6 4 76-90
Feyenoord10 games · scored 34 · conceded 17
4 2 0-15
6 3 16-30
7 1 31-45
6 3 46-60
7 3 61-75
4 5 76-90
Ajax10 games · scored 29 · conceded 12
2 1 0-15
3 1 16-30
7 3 31-45
4 2 46-60
7 1 61-75
6 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Eredivisie

View all fixtures →
Groningen Willem II Nov 2719:00 Excelsior Telstar Nov 2815:30 PSV Eindhoven GO Ahead Eagles Nov 2817:45 Cambuur Sparta Rotterdam Nov 2820:00 ADO Den Haag Utrecht Nov 2911:15 Fortuna Sittard Heerenveen Nov 2913:30 Feyenoord Ajax Nov 2913:30 PEC Zwolle AZ Alkmaar Nov 2915:45 NEC Nijmegen Twente Nov 2919:00