Eredivisie Gameweek 15 Sat, Dec 5 · 17:45 Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel, Rotterdam
Sparta Rotterdam 13th · 9 pts · 9 played
VS— Compare
NEC Nijmegen 12th · 10 pts · 9 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel95 kmRest days6.9 · 5.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Sparta Rotterdam—%
Draw—%
NEC Nijmegen—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Rotterdam)

Forecast from 20 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Sparta Rotterdam and NEC Nijmegen. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Sparta RotterdamNEC Nijmegen
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
18 Current StrengthIn forecast 32
32 AttackIn forecast 37
17 DefenceIn forecast 33
20 Form indexContext 18
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Sparta Rotterdam

Attack—
Defense risk—

NEC Nijmegen

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Sparta RotterdamNEC Nijmegen
1.78 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.67
2.44 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.78
2.12 xGVia Att/Def 2.16
1.86 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.48
-0.34 Goals minus xGContext -0.49
78% Scored inContext 89%
0% Clean sheetsContext 0%
14.56 ShotsContext 15.11
6.57 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.22
35% On target shareContext 28%
10.22 Shots in the boxContext 9.78
69% Box shareContext 64%
12% ConversionContext 11%
2.67 OffsidesContext 2.57
17.00 Shots allowedContext 11.56
5.44 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.44
4.78 BlocksContext 3.11
3.88 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.56
65% Save rateContext 58%
45% PossessionIn forecast 60%
380 PassesContext 488
308 Accurate passesContext 401
81% Pass accuracyContext 82%
6.70 Team ratingContext 6.59
10.11 FoulsContext 11.33
9.89 Fouls sufferedContext 12.11
1.67 Yellow cardsContext 1.33
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games
1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10
2.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.20
2.05 xGVia Att/Def 1.94
1.71 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.39
-0.25 Goals minus xGContext -0.84
80% Scored inContext 70%
0% Clean sheetsContext 0%
14.80 ShotsContext 12.00
6.25 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.80
34% On target shareContext 32%
10.50 Shots in the boxContext 7.60
70% Box shareContext 59%
12% ConversionContext 9%
2.50 OffsidesContext 2.43
16.90 Shots allowedContext 12.70
5.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.30
4.60 BlocksContext 2.80
3.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.10
62% Save rateContext 59%
46% PossessionIn forecast 52%
384 PassesContext 442
311 Accurate passesContext 358
81% Pass accuracyContext 81%
6.70 Team ratingContext 6.44
10.10 FoulsContext 11.70
10.30 Fouls sufferedContext 11.80
1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.40
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Sparta Rotterdam
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km337 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 20 · 5 pts vs 8.9 for an average club · -1.4 vs expected
  • W17 OctH · Willem II3–22.0 xPts
  • D10 OctA · GO Ahead Eagles3–30.9 xPts
  • L19 SepH · Heerenveen0–41.6 xPts
  • L13 SepA · PSV Eindhoven1–40.2 xPts
  • D4 SepH · PEC Zwolle2–21.7 xPts
NEC Nijmegen
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel95 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 18 · 4 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · -2.7 vs expected
  • D18 OctH · Fortuna Sittard2–21.9 xPts
  • D15 OctH · Levski Sofia1–11.8 xPts
  • D10 OctA · Ajax1–10.7 xPts
  • D20 SepH · GO Ahead Eagles1–11.7 xPts
  • L17 SepA · Juventus0–50.6 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Sparta Rotterdam NEC Nijmegen
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match6.9Eredivisie 2026-2027, 28 Nov5.9Eredivisie 2026-2027, 29 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km95 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways337 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 31 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one7.95

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Sparta Rotterdam Last XI · not confirmed
5-4-1 · vs Willem II (H) 3–2, 17 Oct
1M. Brouwer(G)
5B. Kuipers 4R. Martins Indi 6N. Verschuren 3M. Young 2Lushendry Edward Martes
11I. Babadi 10C. Hatenboer 8J. Toornstra 7Robin van Cruijsen
9Milan Zonneveld
NEC Nijmegen Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-2-1 · vs Fortuna Sittard (H) 2–2, 18 Oct
1G. Crettaz(G)
24D. Fonville 22A. Kaplan 21T. Storm
35Jamiro Monteiro 18D. Geiger 6D. Nejašmić 34Kevin Kers
99Clement Bischoff 20N. Lebreton
30B. Linssen

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Sparta Rotterdam Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
NEC Nijmegen Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Sparta Rotterdam · Home 1.00points per game · 5 home games
W-D-L
1-2-2
Scored
1.60
Conceded
2.40
NEC Nijmegen · Away 1.75points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
2-1-1
Scored
2.00
Conceded
1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 6 this season

OpponentSparta RotterdamNEC Nijmegen
Willem II W 3–2 H W 4–1 A
GO Ahead Eagles D 3–3 A D 1–1 H
PEC Zwolle D 2–2 H W 3–1 A
Excelsior L 1–2 A D 2–2 H
Telstar W 3–1 A L 1–2 H
Feyenoord L 0–1 H L 1–3 H
Points8 of 18 · 1.33 per game8 of 18 · 1.33 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

1 Sparta Rotterdam wins3 draws2 NEC Nijmegen wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.33 Over 2.517% Both scored67% Clean sheets17% · 17%
  • 17 Feb 2026Sparta Rotterdam1–1NEC Nijmegen
  • 29 Nov 2025NEC Nijmegen3–1Sparta Rotterdam
  • 6 Apr 2025Sparta Rotterdam2–0NEC Nijmegen
  • 15 Dec 2024NEC Nijmegen1–1Sparta Rotterdam
  • 24 Feb 2024NEC Nijmegen2–0Sparta Rotterdam
  • 1 Sep 2023Sparta Rotterdam1–1NEC Nijmegen

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Sparta RotterdamNEC NijmegenForecast
Scored per game 1.781.67
Conceded per game 2.441.78
Match goals 4.223.44
Over 1.5 89%100%
Over 2.5 89%78%
Over 3.5 78%56%
Both teams scored 78%89%
Clean sheets 0%0%
Failed to score 22%11%
Games99
Sparta RotterdamNEC NijmegenForecast
Scored per game 1.801.10
Conceded per game 2.502.20
Match goals 4.303.30
Over 1.5 90%100%
Over 2.5 90%70%
Over 3.5 80%50%
Both teams scored 80%70%
Clean sheets 0%0%
Failed to score 20%30%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Sparta RotterdamNEC NijmegenLeague
Corners
Corners won5.674.88
Corners conceded6.893.75
Match total12.568.6310.39
Over 8.589% 8/950% 4/8
Over 9.578% 7/938% 3/8
Over 10.567% 6/938% 3/8
Cards
Cards1.671.33
Opponent cards1.111.78
Match total2.783.112.77
Over 3.522% 2/956% 5/9
Over 4.511% 1/90% 0/9
Sparta RotterdamNEC NijmegenLeague
Corners
Corners won5.604.00
Corners conceded6.403.88
Match total12.007.8810.39
Over 8.580% 8/1038% 3/8
Over 9.570% 7/1025% 2/8
Over 10.560% 6/1025% 2/8
Cards
Cards1.901.50
Opponent cards1.001.40
Match total2.902.902.77
Over 3.530% 3/1040% 4/10
Over 4.510% 1/100% 0/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Sparta Rotterdam9 games · scored 16 · conceded 22
2 0-15
2 6 16-30
2 3 31-45
4 4 46-60
3 4 61-75
3 5 76-90
NEC Nijmegen9 games · scored 15 · conceded 16
3 3 0-15
3 3 16-30
1 2 31-45
2 3 46-60
2 3 61-75
4 2 76-90
Sparta Rotterdam10 games · scored 18 · conceded 25
2 1 0-15
2 6 16-30
2 3 31-45
5 5 46-60
3 5 61-75
4 5 76-90
NEC Nijmegen10 games · scored 11 · conceded 22
3 3 0-15
3 3 16-30
6 31-45
1 3 46-60
1 5 61-75
3 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Eredivisie

View all fixtures →
Telstar Groningen Dec 419:00 Willem II Feyenoord Dec 515:30 Sparta Rotterdam NEC Nijmegen Dec 517:45 AZ Alkmaar PSV Eindhoven Dec 519:00 Fortuna Sittard PEC Zwolle Dec 520:00 Heerenveen Cambuur Dec 611:15 Ajax Utrecht Dec 613:30 GO Ahead Eagles Twente Dec 613:30 ADO Den Haag Excelsior Dec 615:45