Süper Lig Gameweek 23 Sun, Feb 28 · 12:00 GAIN Park Stadium, Alanya
Alanyaspor 9th · 12 pts · 8 played
VS— Compare
Çorum FK 6th · 13 pts · 8 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel514 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Alanyaspor—%
Draw—%
Çorum FK—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Alanya)

Forecast from 13 Feb

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Alanyaspor and Çorum FK. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

AlanyasporÇorum FK
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
24 Current StrengthIn forecast 32
18 AttackIn forecast 31
24 DefenceIn forecast 36
49 Form indexContext 70
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Alanyaspor

Attack—
Defense risk—

Çorum FK

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

AlanyasporÇorum FK
1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.25
1.13 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.63
0.96 xGVia Att/Def 1.12
1.60 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.42
+0.04 Goals minus xGContext +1.13
75% Scored inContext 88%
38% Clean sheetsContext 25%
10.88 ShotsContext 12.25
3.25 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.88
30% On target shareContext 40%
6.75 Shots in the boxContext 7.00
61% Box shareContext 55%
9% ConversionContext 18%
2.14 OffsidesContext 1.86
15.00 Shots allowedContext 14.75
4.88 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.75
4.38 BlocksContext 4.50
3.88 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.57
80% Save rateContext 68%
42% PossessionIn forecast 53%
334 PassesContext 466
270 Accurate passesContext 403
81% Pass accuracyContext 87%
6.93 Team ratingContext 6.92
12.13 FoulsContext 12.88
13.38 Fouls sufferedContext 9.38
1.38 Yellow cardsContext 2.13
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.13
This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games
1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.25
1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.63
1.04 xGVia Att/Def 1.12
1.60 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.42
+0.16 Goals minus xGContext +1.13
80% Scored inContext 88%
30% Clean sheetsContext 25%
11.00 ShotsContext 12.25
3.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.88
35% On target shareContext 40%
6.50 Shots in the boxContext 7.00
58% Box shareContext 55%
11% ConversionContext 18%
2.13 OffsidesContext 1.86
14.20 Shots allowedContext 14.75
5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.75
4.10 BlocksContext 4.50
3.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.57
78% Save rateContext 68%
44% PossessionIn forecast 53%
354 PassesContext 466
291 Accurate passesContext 403
82% Pass accuracyContext 87%
6.92 Team ratingContext 6.92
12.30 FoulsContext 12.88
13.30 Fouls sufferedContext 9.38
1.30 Yellow cardsContext 2.13
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.13
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 8 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Alanyaspor
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km953 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 49 · 8 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · +2.4 vs expected
  • L17 OctA · Fenerbahce0–30.5 xPts
  • D10 OctH · Erzurumspor FK0–01.6 xPts
  • W19 SepA · Çorum FK2–11.0 xPts
  • D12 SepH · Goztepe2–21.6 xPts
  • W7 SepA · Rizespor1–01.0 xPts
Çorum FK
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel514 km1,016 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 70 · 12 pts vs 9.6 for an average club · +4.4 vs expected
  • W16 OctH · Rizespor2–11.7 xPts
  • W11 OctA · Gazişehir Gaziantep3–01.3 xPts
  • L19 SepH · Alanyaspor1–21.8 xPts
  • W12 SepA · Samsunspor5–11.1 xPts
  • W6 SepH · Eyüpspor3–01.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Alanyaspor Çorum FK
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Süper Lig 2026-2027, 21 Feb7Süper Lig 2026-2027, 21 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km514 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways953 km1,016 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 41 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Alanyaspor Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-3 · vs Fenerbahce (A) 0–3, 17 Oct
48Paulo Victor(G)
20F. Aksoy 5F. Aliti 3Nuno Lima
11Ruan 55B. Gezek 42G. Makouta 94F. Hadërgjonaj
7Ibrahim Kaya 17A. Usluoğlu 16U. Hwang
Çorum FK Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-3 · vs Rizespor (H) 2–1, 16 Oct
1Marcos Felipe(G)
6H. Smolčić 2Ç. Söyüncü 5Alexandre Penetra
24A. Borza 10M. Diomande 3B. Özdemir 11G. Sazdağı
89A. Kyziridis 19J. Ramírez 7C. Ünder

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Alanyaspor Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Çorum FK Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Alanyaspor · Home 1.67points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
1-2-0
Scored
1.00
Conceded
0.67
Çorum FK · Away 1.75points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
2-1-1
Scored
3.00
Conceded
2.25

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

OpponentAlanyasporÇorum FK
Rizespor W 1–0 A W 2–1 H
Eyüpspor L 1–2 A W 3–0 H
Besiktas W 1–0 H L 2–6 A
Gazişehir Gaziantep D 1–1 A W 3–0 A
Points7 of 12 · 1.75 per game9 of 12 · 2.25 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

1 Alanyaspor wins0 draws0 Çorum FK wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%
  • 19 Sep 2026Çorum FK1–2Alanyaspor

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

AlanyasporÇorum FKForecast
Scored per game 1.002.25
Conceded per game 1.131.63
Match goals 2.133.88
Over 1.5 63%88%
Over 2.5 50%88%
Over 3.5 13%38%
Both teams scored 50%63%
Clean sheets 38%25%
Failed to score 25%13%
Games88
AlanyasporÇorum FKForecast
Scored per game 1.202.25
Conceded per game 1.201.63
Match goals 2.403.88
Over 1.5 70%88%
Over 2.5 60%88%
Over 3.5 20%38%
Both teams scored 60%63%
Clean sheets 30%25%
Failed to score 20%13%
Games108

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

AlanyasporÇorum FKLeague
Corners
Corners won4.713.86
Corners conceded4.146.00
Match total8.859.869.12
Over 8.543% 3/771% 5/7
Over 9.543% 3/757% 4/7
Over 10.543% 3/743% 3/7
Cards
Cards1.382.25
Opponent cards2.131.38
Match total3.513.634.04
Over 3.563% 5/850% 4/8
Over 4.538% 3/813% 1/8
AlanyasporÇorum FKLeague
Corners
Corners won4.713.86
Corners conceded4.146.00
Match total8.859.869.12
Over 8.543% 3/771% 5/7
Over 9.543% 3/757% 4/7
Over 10.543% 3/743% 3/7
Cards
Cards1.302.25
Opponent cards2.001.38
Match total3.303.634.04
Over 3.560% 6/1050% 4/8
Over 4.530% 3/1013% 1/8

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Alanyaspor8 games · scored 8 · conceded 9
1 0-15
1 1 16-30
2 31-45
46-60
5 3 61-75
1 3 76-90
Çorum FK8 games · scored 18 · conceded 13
4 3 0-15
1 16-30
2 2 31-45
3 2 46-60
3 3 61-75
5 3 76-90
Alanyaspor10 games · scored 12 · conceded 12
2 1 0-15
1 1 16-30
2 2 31-45
1 46-60
6 4 61-75
1 3 76-90
Çorum FK8 games · scored 18 · conceded 13
4 3 0-15
1 16-30
2 2 31-45
3 2 46-60
3 3 61-75
5 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Süper Lig

View all fixtures →
Besiktas Amed Feb 2812:00 Konyaspor Kasimpasa Feb 2812:00 Galatasaray Trabzonspor Feb 2812:00 Alanyaspor Çorum FK Feb 2812:00 Genclerbirligi Istanbul Basaksehir Feb 2812:00 Rizespor Goztepe Feb 2812:00 Gazişehir Gaziantep Kocaelispor Feb 2812:00 Eyüpspor Fenerbahce Feb 2812:00 Samsunspor Erzurumspor FK Feb 2812:00