Samsunspor vs Erzurumspor FK

Süper Lig Gameweek 23 Sun, Feb 28 · 12:00 Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu, Samsun

Samsunspor 17th · 4 pts · 8 played LLLLL

VS— Compare

Erzurumspor FK 11th · 11 pts · 8 played WLWDW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel444 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2

Real contextStrength only

Samsunspor—%

Draw—%

Erzurumspor FK—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Samsun)

Forecast from 13 Feb

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Defence

Streaks

Team strength

Samsunspor

Erzurumspor FK

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

23 Current StrengthIn forecast 27

15 AttackIn forecast 17

18 DefenceIn forecast 38

4 Form indexContext 56

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Samsunspor

Attack—

Defense risk—

Erzurumspor FK

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Samsunspor

Erzurumspor FK

0.88 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.63

2.38 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.38

0.94 xGVia Att/Def 0.82

1.56 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.10

-0.06 Goals minus xGContext -0.19

50% Scored inContext 50%

13% Clean sheetsContext 50%

12.38 ShotsContext 9.43

3.43 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.29

24% On target shareContext 35%

7.25 Shots in the boxContext 6.29

55% Box shareContext 63%

7% ConversionContext 8%

2.20 OffsidesContext 1.50

15.50 Shots allowedContext 11.29

6.13 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.43

3.88 BlocksContext 2.20

3.88 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.50

63% Save rateContext 75%

55% PossessionIn forecast 46%

473 PassesContext 409

399 Accurate passesContext 341

84% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.61 Team ratingContext 6.67

12.75 FoulsContext 11.71

12.00 Fouls sufferedContext 9.86

1.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.38

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.63

2.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.38

0.94 xGVia Att/Def 0.82

1.81 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.10

+0.06 Goals minus xGContext -0.19

50% Scored inContext 50%

20% Clean sheetsContext 50%

12.00 ShotsContext 9.43

3.67 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.29

28% On target shareContext 35%

7.10 Shots in the boxContext 6.29

56% Box shareContext 63%

8% ConversionContext 8%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.50

16.50 Shots allowedContext 11.29

6.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.43

4.00 BlocksContext 2.20

3.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.50

65% Save rateContext 75%

56% PossessionIn forecast 46%

461 PassesContext 409

385 Accurate passesContext 341

84% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.66 Team ratingContext 6.67

12.50 FoulsContext 11.71

12.50 Fouls sufferedContext 9.86

1.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.38

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 8 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Samsunspor LLLLL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km284 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 4 · 0 pts vs 8.8 for an average club · -6.4 vs expected

L18 OctA · Kasimpasa1–41.1 xPts
L10 OctH · Trabzonspor0–31.2 xPts
L20 SepA · Erzurumspor FK0–11.1 xPts
L12 SepH · Çorum FK1–51.7 xPts
L6 SepA · Kocaelispor0–11.3 xPts

Erzurumspor FK WLWDW

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel444 km1,587 km in 14d

Schedule load11%Low

Form 56 · 10 pts vs 9.3 for an average club · +2.7 vs expected

W17 OctH · Eyüpspor2–02.2 xPts
D10 OctA · Alanyaspor0–01.1 xPts
W20 SepH · Samsunspor1–01.6 xPts
L11 SepA · Besiktas0–30.7 xPts
W5 SepH · Konyaspor1–01.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Samsunspor	Erzurumspor FK
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 11
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Süper Lig 2026-2027, 21 Feb	7Süper Lig 2026-2027, 21 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	444 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	284 km	1,587 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	7	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Samsunspor Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Kasimpasa (A) 1–4, 18 Oct

1O. Kocuk(G)

17L. Tómasson 34G. Guarino 22Y. Çift 2J. Mendes

4Elliot Watt 19O. Øhlenschlæger

11E. Kılınç 20Y. Kayan 10T. Coulibaly

18M. Bayo

Erzurumspor FK Last XI · not confirmed

5-3-2 · vs Eyüpspor (H) 2–0, 17 Oct

1M. Taşkıran(G)

15G. Giorbelidze 18N. Mujakić 22M. Yumlu 4A. Gerxhaliu 53O. Ovacıklı

65M. Rodríguez 42E. Owusu 6B. Baiye

20Miguel Cardoso 10E. Tozlu

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Samsunspor Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Erzurumspor FK Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Samsunspor · Home 0.25points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 0-1-3
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 3.25

Erzurumspor FK · Away 0.50points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 0-2-2
Scored: 0.25
Conceded: 1.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

0 Samsunspor wins0 draws1 Erzurumspor FK wins

Goals per game0.00 – 1.00 Over 2.50% Both scored0% Clean sheets0% · 100%

20 Sep 2026Erzurumspor FK1–0Samsunspor

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Samsunspor	Erzurumspor FK
Scored per game	0.88	0.63
Conceded per game	2.38	1.38
Match goals	3.25	2.00
Over 1.5	75%	63%
Over 2.5	50%	38%
Over 3.5	38%	13%
Both teams scored	38%	13%
Clean sheets	13%	50%
Failed to score	50%	50%
Games	8	8

	Samsunspor	Erzurumspor FK
Scored per game	1.00	0.63
Conceded per game	2.20	1.38
Match goals	3.20	2.00
Over 1.5	80%	63%
Over 2.5	60%	38%
Over 3.5	30%	13%
Both teams scored	30%	13%
Clean sheets	20%	50%
Failed to score	50%	50%
Games	10	8

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Samsunspor	Erzurumspor FK	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	3.43
Corners conceded	5.63	3.14
Match total	9.63	6.57	9.12
Over 8.5	63% 5/8	0% 0/7
Over 9.5	50% 4/8	0% 0/7
Over 10.5	38% 3/8	0% 0/7
Cards
Cards	1.00	1.38
Opponent cards	2.00	2.13
Match total	3.00	3.51	4.04
Over 3.5	38% 3/8	50% 4/8
Over 4.5	25% 2/8	50% 4/8

	Samsunspor	Erzurumspor FK	League
Corners
Corners won	4.11	3.43
Corners conceded	5.22	3.14
Match total	9.33	6.57	9.12
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	0% 0/7
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	0% 0/7
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	0% 0/7
Cards
Cards	1.30	1.38
Opponent cards	2.20	2.13
Match total	3.50	3.51	4.04
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	50% 4/8
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	50% 4/8

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.