La Liga Gameweek 21 Sun, Jan 24 · 16:00 Estadio de Mendizorroza, Vitoria-Gasteiz
Alaves 7th · 11 pts · 9 played
VS— Compare
Barcelona 1st · 27 pts · 9 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel430 kmRest days7 · 3.8Matches / 14d2 · 3
Real contextStrength only
Alaves—%
Draw—%
Barcelona—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Vitoria-Gasteiz)

Forecast from 9 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Alaves and Barcelona. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

AlavesBarcelona
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
48 Current StrengthIn forecast 93
48 AttackIn forecast 97
55 DefenceIn forecast 92
14 Form indexContext 96
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Alaves

Attack—
Defense risk—

Barcelona

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

AlavesBarcelona
1.44 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 4.33
1.11 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
1.24 xGVia Att/Def 3.73
1.22 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.98
+0.20 Goals minus xGContext +0.60
78% Scored inContext 100%
33% Clean sheetsContext 44%
12.78 ShotsContext 21.11
5.38 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 8.44
37% On target shareContext 40%
8.88 Shots in the boxContext 14.56
62% Box shareContext 70%
11% ConversionContext 21%
3.88 OffsidesContext 3.11
12.33 Shots allowedContext 6.78
4.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.50
4.50 BlocksContext 1.60
3.22 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.43
74% Save rateContext 68%
42% PossessionIn forecast 70%
340 PassesContext 697
270 Accurate passesContext 632
80% Pass accuracyContext 91%
6.84 Team ratingContext 7.42
13.67 FoulsContext 9.67
13.33 Fouls sufferedContext 10.22
1.67 Yellow cardsContext 1.33
0.11 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games
1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 4.30
1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10
1.28 xGVia Att/Def 3.55
1.23 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.95
+0.12 Goals minus xGContext +0.75
80% Scored inContext 100%
30% Clean sheetsContext 30%
13.40 ShotsContext 22.40
6.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 8.90
40% On target shareContext 40%
9.11 Shots in the boxContext 15.00
61% Box shareContext 67%
10% ConversionContext 19%
3.78 OffsidesContext 3.30
12.60 Shots allowedContext 6.30
4.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.44
4.22 BlocksContext 1.43
3.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.25
74% Save rateContext 64%
43% PossessionIn forecast 72%
341 PassesContext 712
271 Accurate passesContext 651
80% Pass accuracyContext 91%
6.84 Team ratingContext 7.38
13.60 FoulsContext 9.50
13.40 Fouls sufferedContext 10.20
1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.30
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Alaves
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km777 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 14 · 1 pts vs 6.0 for an average club · -6.0 vs expected
  • L18 OctA · Celta Vigo1–21.3 xPts
  • L10 OctH · Atletico Madrid1–21.2 xPts
  • D19 SepA · Athletic Club0–01.1 xPts
  • L15 SepH · Valencia0–11.9 xPts
  • L12 SepA · Racing Santander1–21.5 xPts
Barcelona
Rest3.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel430 km2,715 km in 14d
Schedule load26%Moderate
Form 96 · 15 pts vs 6.1 for an average club · +3.0 vs expected
  • W17 OctA · Real Betis5–22.1 xPts
  • W13 OctA · Galatasaray4–12.1 xPts
  • W10 OctH · Getafe3–02.7 xPts
  • W19 SepA · Sevilla3–12.3 xPts
  • W16 SepH · Racing Santander7–22.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Alaves Barcelona
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Moderate · 26
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7La Liga 2026-2027, 17 Jan3.8UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 20 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km430 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways777 km2,715 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 32 / 3 / 4
Next matchdays after this one73.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Alaves Last XI · not confirmed
5-3-2 · vs Celta Vigo (A) 1–2, 18 Oct
1Antonio Sivera(G)
21A. Rebbach 2N. Valentini 16V. Koski 17Jonny 14F. Tenaglia
10Carles Aleñá 8Antonio Blanco 19Pablo Ibáñez
15L. Boyé 11Toni Martínez
Barcelona Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Real Betis (A) 5–2, 17 Oct
1Joan García(G)
12Xavi Espart 18Gerard Martín 5Pau Cubarsí 23J. Koundé
8Pedri 16Rodri
14K. Adeyemi 7Fermín López 10Lamine Yamal
9G. de Jesus

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Alaves Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Barcelona Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Alaves · Home 1.80points per game · 5 home games
W-D-L
3-0-2
Scored
2.00
Conceded
1.00
Barcelona · Away 3.00points per game · 5 away games
W-D-L
5-0-0
Scored
4.40
Conceded
1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 5 this season

OpponentAlavesBarcelona
Athletic Club D 0–0 A W 2–0 H
Valencia L 0–1 H W 5–0 A
Racing Santander L 1–2 A W 7–2 H
Rayo Vallecano D 1–1 A W 5–2 H
Getafe W 3–0 H W 3–0 H
Points5 of 15 · 1.00 per game15 of 15 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

1 Alaves wins2 draws7 Barcelona wins
Goals per game0.70 – 2.00 Over 2.550% Both scored60% Clean sheets10% · 30%
  • 13 May 2026Alaves1–0Barcelona
  • 29 Nov 2025Barcelona3–1Alaves
  • 2 Feb 2025Barcelona1–0Alaves
  • 6 Oct 2024Alaves0–3Barcelona
  • 3 Feb 2024Alaves1–3Barcelona
  • 12 Nov 2023Barcelona2–1Alaves

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

AlavesBarcelonaForecast
Scored per game 1.444.33
Conceded per game 1.111.00
Match goals 2.565.33
Over 1.5 67%100%
Over 2.5 56%89%
Over 3.5 11%78%
Both teams scored 56%56%
Clean sheets 33%44%
Failed to score 22%0%
Games99
AlavesBarcelonaForecast
Scored per game 1.404.30
Conceded per game 1.201.10
Match goals 2.605.40
Over 1.5 70%100%
Over 2.5 60%90%
Over 3.5 10%80%
Both teams scored 60%70%
Clean sheets 30%30%
Failed to score 20%0%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

AlavesBarcelonaLeague
Corners
Corners won4.296.00
Corners conceded5.142.88
Match total9.438.889.91
Over 8.543% 3/738% 3/8
Over 9.543% 3/738% 3/8
Over 10.529% 2/738% 3/8
Cards
Cards1.781.33
Opponent cards2.331.78
Match total4.113.114.73
Over 3.556% 5/944% 4/9
Over 4.533% 3/933% 3/9
AlavesBarcelonaLeague
Corners
Corners won5.006.33
Corners conceded5.132.44
Match total10.138.779.91
Over 8.550% 4/833% 3/9
Over 9.550% 4/833% 3/9
Over 10.538% 3/833% 3/9
Cards
Cards1.901.30
Opponent cards2.401.80
Match total4.303.104.73
Over 3.560% 6/1040% 4/10
Over 4.540% 4/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Alaves9 games · scored 13 · conceded 10
0-15
2 16-30
3 2 31-45
1 4 46-60
2 2 61-75
5 2 76-90
Barcelona9 games · scored 39 · conceded 9
6 1 0-15
7 3 16-30
5 31-45
5 2 46-60
7 1 61-75
9 2 76-90
Alaves10 games · scored 14 · conceded 12
1 0-15
2 16-30
3 2 31-45
1 4 46-60
2 3 61-75
5 3 76-90
Barcelona10 games · scored 43 · conceded 11
6 1 0-15
8 4 16-30
5 31-45
8 2 46-60
6 1 61-75
10 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures La Liga

View all fixtures →
Athletic Club Levante Jan 2416:00 Valencia Sevilla Jan 2416:00 Espanyol Villarreal Jan 2416:00 Real Madrid Real Betis Jan 2416:00 Alaves Barcelona Jan 2416:00 Deportivo La Coruna Atletico Madrid Jan 2416:00 Getafe Osasuna Jan 2416:00 Real Sociedad Malaga Jan 2416:00 Elche Rayo Vallecano Jan 2416:00 Racing Santander Celta Vigo Jan 2416:00