Real Sociedad vs Malaga

La Liga Gameweek 21 Sun, Jan 24 · 16:00 Reale Arena, Donostia-San Sebastián

Real Sociedad 5th · 16 pts · 9 played WLWWW

VS— Compare

Malaga 20th · 4 pts · 9 played DLLDL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel762 kmRest days2.9 · 7Matches / 14d3 · 2

Real contextStrength only

Real Sociedad—%

Draw—%

Malaga—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Donostia-San Sebastián)

Forecast from 9 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Streak Real Sociedad 5 Scoring in a row Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row

Team strength

Real Sociedad

Malaga

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

58 Current StrengthIn forecast 41

62 AttackIn forecast 28

48 DefenceIn forecast 31

81 Form indexContext 15

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Real Sociedad

Attack—

Defense risk—

Malaga

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Real Sociedad

Malaga

1.89 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.67

1.89 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

1.36 xGVia Att/Def 0.84

1.63 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.68

+0.53 Goals minus xGContext -0.17

67% Scored inContext 56%

11% Clean sheetsContext 11%

14.11 ShotsContext 11.33

5.44 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.00

39% On target shareContext 27%

8.22 Shots in the boxContext 6.67

56% Box shareContext 62%

13% ConversionContext 6%

2.14 OffsidesContext 1.63

16.56 Shots allowedContext 14.89

6.22 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.89

4.00 BlocksContext 4.00

4.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.78

73% Save rateContext 64%

49% PossessionIn forecast 51%

467 PassesContext 481

399 Accurate passesContext 417

85% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.89 Team ratingContext 6.70

12.11 FoulsContext 11.56

9.78 Fouls sufferedContext 11.67

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.44

0.22 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games

1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.80

1.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.90

1.28 xGVia Att/Def 0.84

1.72 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.68

+0.62 Goals minus xGContext -0.04

80% Scored inContext 60%

10% Clean sheetsContext 10%

13.80 ShotsContext 11.40

5.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.20

38% On target shareContext 28%

7.80 Shots in the boxContext 7.00

55% Box shareContext 64%

14% ConversionContext 7%

1.75 OffsidesContext 1.63

15.80 Shots allowedContext 14.70

5.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.90

3.90 BlocksContext 3.70

4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.90

70% Save rateContext 66%

50% PossessionIn forecast 51%

481 PassesContext 474

410 Accurate passesContext 408

85% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.82 Team ratingContext 6.74

12.40 FoulsContext 10.90

10.70 Fouls sufferedContext 11.50

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 2.50

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Real Sociedad LWWDW

Rest2.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km858 km in 14d

Schedule load23%Moderate

Form 81 · 10 pts vs 5.9 for an average club · +4.0 vs expected

W18 OctA · Malaga5–21.3 xPts
D15 OctA · Union St. Gilloise1–10.9 xPts
W11 OctH · Deportivo La Coruna3–21.7 xPts
W20 SepA · Valencia3–21.2 xPts
L17 SepH · Bournemouth1–21.0 xPts

Malaga DLLDL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel762 km935 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 15 · 2 pts vs 6.8 for an average club · -4.7 vs expected

L18 OctH · Real Sociedad2–51.5 xPts
D9 OctH · Espanyol1–11.6 xPts
L20 SepA · Getafe0–11.2 xPts
L17 SepH · Villarreal1–31.3 xPts
D13 SepA · Celta Vigo1–11.2 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Real Sociedad	Malaga
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 23	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	2.9UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 21 Jan	7La Liga 2026-2027, 17 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	762 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	858 km	935 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	2 / 3 / 4	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	4.2	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Real Sociedad Last XI · not confirmed

4-4-2 · vs Malaga (A) 5–2, 18 Oct

1Álex Remiro(G)

3Aihen Muñoz 19M. Sarr 6Jon Martín 22Héctor Fort

7Barrenetxea 18Carlos Soler 4Jon Gorrotxategi 14T. Kubo

9O. Óskarsson 10Mikel Oyarzabal

Malaga Last XI · not confirmed

4-4-2 · vs Real Sociedad (H) 2–5, 18 Oct

1Alfonso Herrero(G)

12José Salinas 15Ángel Recio 20F. Calero Villa 31Rafita

18Pablo Martínez 8Carlos Dotor 23Izan Merino 10David Larrubia

9Chupe 21Adrián Niño

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Real Sociedad Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Malaga Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Real Sociedad · Home 1.75points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 2-1-1
Scored: 1.25
Conceded: 1.50

Malaga · Away 0.25points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 0-1-3
Scored: 0.25
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 5 this season

Opponent	Real Sociedad	Malaga
Deportivo La Coruna	W 3–2 H	D 1–1 H
Atletico Madrid	L 0–3 H	L 0–2 A
Celta Vigo	D 0–0 H	D 1–1 A
Espanyol	W 2–1 H	D 1–1 H
Real Madrid	L 1–4 A	L 0–4 A
Points	7 of 15 · 1.40 per game	3 of 15 · 0.60 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

1 Real Sociedad wins0 draws0 Malaga wins

Goals per game5.00 – 2.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%

18 Oct 2026Malaga2–5Real Sociedad

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Real Sociedad	Malaga
Scored per game	1.89	0.67
Conceded per game	1.89	2.00
Match goals	3.78	2.67
Over 1.5	78%	78%
Over 2.5	78%	33%
Over 3.5	56%	33%
Both teams scored	67%	56%
Clean sheets	11%	11%
Failed to score	33%	44%
Games	9	9

	Real Sociedad	Malaga
Scored per game	1.90	0.67
Conceded per game	1.90	2.00
Match goals	3.80	2.67
Over 1.5	90%	78%
Over 2.5	80%	33%
Over 3.5	50%	33%
Both teams scored	80%	56%
Clean sheets	10%	11%
Failed to score	20%	44%
Games	10	9

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Real Sociedad	Malaga	League
Corners
Corners won	7.00	5.56
Corners conceded	4.89	4.89
Match total	11.89	10.45	9.91
Over 8.5	100% 9/9	78% 7/9
Over 9.5	78% 7/9	67% 6/9
Over 10.5	67% 6/9	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	2.33	2.44
Opponent cards	2.56	2.33
Match total	4.89	4.77	4.73
Over 3.5	78% 7/9	67% 6/9
Over 4.5	78% 7/9	67% 6/9

	Real Sociedad	Malaga	League
Corners
Corners won	7.00	5.70
Corners conceded	4.70	5.10
Match total	11.70	10.80	9.91
Over 8.5	90% 9/10	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	80% 8/10	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	70% 7/10	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	2.20	2.60
Opponent cards	2.40	2.30
Match total	4.60	4.90	4.73
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.