UEFA Champions League Matchday 7 Wed, Jan 20 · 20:00 Estádio José Alvalade, Lisboa
Sporting CP 6th · 6 pts · 2 played
VS— Compare
Barcelona 3rd · 6 pts · 2 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel1,006 kmRest days3.2 · 3.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Sporting CP—%
Draw—%
Barcelona—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Lisboa)

Forecast from 5 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Sporting CP and Barcelona. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Sporting CPBarcelona
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
83 Current StrengthIn forecast 93
75 AttackIn forecast 97
81 DefenceIn forecast 92
83 Form indexContext 96
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Sporting CP

Attack—
Defense risk—

Barcelona

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Sporting CPBarcelona
2.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 4.50
0.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
1.74 xGVia Att/Def —
1.51 xG allowedVia Att/Def —
+0.76 Goals minus xGContext —
100% Scored inContext 100%
50% Clean sheetsContext 0%
9.50 ShotsContext 22.50
5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 10.00
53% On target shareContext 44%
6.00 Shots in the boxContext 14.50
61% Box shareContext 63%
26% ConversionContext 20%
— OffsidesContext 4.00
15.50 Shots allowedContext 4.50
4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.50
3.00 BlocksContext 1.00
4.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.50
100% Save rateContext 60%
41% PossessionIn forecast 72%
402 PassesContext 691
333 Accurate passesContext 640
83% Pass accuracyContext 93%
7.16 Team ratingContext 7.33
12.50 FoulsContext 10.00
9.50 Fouls sufferedContext 11.50
1.00 Yellow cardsContext 0.50
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games
2.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 4.30
1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10
1.71 xGVia Att/Def 3.55
1.04 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.95
+0.79 Goals minus xGContext +0.75
100% Scored inContext 100%
30% Clean sheetsContext 30%
11.90 ShotsContext 22.40
5.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 8.90
45% On target shareContext 40%
7.80 Shots in the boxContext 15.00
66% Box shareContext 67%
21% ConversionContext 19%
1.88 OffsidesContext 3.30
10.40 Shots allowedContext 6.30
3.44 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.44
2.33 BlocksContext 1.43
2.78 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.25
81% Save rateContext 64%
55% PossessionIn forecast 72%
521 PassesContext 712
457 Accurate passesContext 651
88% Pass accuracyContext 91%
7.00 Team ratingContext 7.38
11.70 FoulsContext 9.50
12.60 Fouls sufferedContext 10.20
2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.30
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Sporting CP
Rest3.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Form 83 · 11 pts vs 6.5 for an average club · +1.8 vs expected
  • W13 OctA · Lens2–01.5 xPts
  • W9 OctA · SC Braga3–11.5 xPts
  • D19 SepH · Arouca2–22.4 xPts
  • D13 SepA · Famalicao1–11.9 xPts
  • W9 SepH · Galatasaray3–11.8 xPts
Barcelona
Rest3.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel1,006 km703 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Form 96 · 15 pts vs 6.1 for an average club · +3.0 vs expected
  • W17 OctA · Real Betis5–22.1 xPts
  • W13 OctA · Galatasaray4–12.1 xPts
  • W10 OctH · Getafe3–02.7 xPts
  • W19 SepA · Sevilla3–12.3 xPts
  • W16 SepH · Racing Santander7–22.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Sporting CP Barcelona
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 8Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match3.2Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 17 Jan3.2La Liga 2026-2027, 17 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km1,006 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km703 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 31 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one3.83.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Sporting CP Last XI · not confirmed
4-3-3 · vs Lens (A) 2–0, 13 Oct
30Kaique(G)
20M. Araújo 25G. Inácio 72Eduardo Quaresma 22Iván Fresneda
77I. Doumbia 5Sergi Altimira 8João Simões
19N. Irankunda 97L. Suárez 10Geny Catamo
Barcelona Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Real Betis (A) 5–2, 17 Oct
1Joan García(G)
12Xavi Espart 18Gerard Martín 5Pau Cubarsí 23J. Koundé
8Pedri 16Rodri
14K. Adeyemi 7Fermín López 10Lamine Yamal
9G. de Jesus

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Sporting CP Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Barcelona Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Sporting CP · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
1-0-0
Scored
3.00
Conceded
1.00
Barcelona · Away 3.00points per game · 1 away games
W-D-L
1-0-0
Scored
4.00
Conceded
1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

OpponentSporting CPBarcelona
Galatasaray W 3–1 H W 4–1 A
Points3 of 3 · 3.00 per game3 of 3 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

Sporting CPBarcelonaForecast
Scored per game 2.504.50
Conceded per game 0.501.00
Match goals 3.005.50
Over 1.5 100%100%
Over 2.5 50%100%
Over 3.5 50%100%
Both teams scored 50%100%
Clean sheets 50%0%
Failed to score 0%0%
Games22
Sporting CPBarcelonaForecast
Scored per game 2.504.30
Conceded per game 1.001.10
Match goals 3.505.40
Over 1.5 100%100%
Over 2.5 70%90%
Over 3.5 70%80%
Both teams scored 70%70%
Clean sheets 30%30%
Failed to score 0%0%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Sporting CPBarcelonaLeague
Corners
Corners won2.005.00
Corners conceded5.001.00
Match total7.006.009.71
Over 8.550% 1/20% 0/2
Over 9.50% 0/20% 0/2
Over 10.50% 0/20% 0/2
Cards
Cards1.000.50
Opponent cards2.501.50
Match total3.502.003.80
Over 3.550% 1/20% 0/2
Over 4.550% 1/20% 0/2
Sporting CPBarcelonaLeague
Corners
Corners won3.226.33
Corners conceded3.672.44
Match total6.898.779.71
Over 8.522% 2/933% 3/9
Over 9.50% 0/933% 3/9
Over 10.50% 0/933% 3/9
Cards
Cards2.101.30
Opponent cards2.501.80
Match total4.603.103.80
Over 3.560% 6/1040% 4/10
Over 4.540% 4/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Sporting CP2 games · scored 5 · conceded 1
1 0-15
2 16-30
31-45
1 46-60
2 61-75
76-90
Barcelona2 games · scored 9 · conceded 2
1 0-15
1 1 16-30
1 31-45
3 46-60
1 61-75
2 1 76-90
Sporting CP10 games · scored 25 · conceded 10
4 1 0-15
6 16-30
3 1 31-45
6 46-60
4 3 61-75
2 5 76-90
Barcelona10 games · scored 43 · conceded 11
6 1 0-15
8 4 16-30
5 31-45
8 2 46-60
6 1 61-75
10 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures UEFA Champions League

View all fixtures →
Bodo/Glimt Atletico Madrid Jan 1917:45 Galatasaray Feyenoord Jan 1917:45 Aston Villa Borussia Dortmund Jan 1920:00 Lille Slovan Bratislava Jan 1920:00 VfB Stuttgart Club Brugge KV Jan 1920:00 FC Porto Slavia Praha Jan 1920:00 Inter Liverpool Jan 1920:00 Real Madrid Lask Linz Jan 1920:00 AEK Athens FC AS Roma Jan 1920:00 Fenerbahce Villarreal Jan 2017:45 Sabah FA Napoli Jan 2017:45 Manchester United Bayern München Jan 2020:00 Lens Manchester City Jan 2020:00 RB Leipzig Shakhtar Donetsk Jan 2020:00 Sporting CP Barcelona Jan 2020:00 Real Betis Arsenal Jan 2020:00 Viking PSV Eindhoven Jan 2020:00 Como Paris Saint Germain Jan 2020:00