Alaves
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Real Sociedad were the stronger side on L90 Strength (53 vs 46). Alaves had 7 days of rest, Real Sociedad 6.1 and had to travel 77 km.
Away travel77 kmRest days7 · 6.1Matches / 14d1 · 2
Alaves39%
Draw28%
Real Sociedad33%
Alaves39%
Draw27%
Real Sociedad34%
Alaves38%
Draw28%
Real Sociedad34%
Alaves32%
Draw28%
Real Sociedad40%
Alaves39%
Draw27%
Real Sociedad33%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Vitoria-Gasteiz)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainJavier Alberola Rojas
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.27
- Matches 30
Team strength
Alaves
Real Sociedad
46
L90 StrengthIn forecast
53
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
58
48
AttackIn forecast
62
55
DefenceIn forecast
48
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisReal Sociedad
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AlavesReal Sociedad
0.86
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.36
1.07
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.06
xGVia Att/Def
1.21
0.99
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.22
-0.20
Goals minus xGContext
+0.15
57%
Scored inContext
86%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
7%
11.00
ShotsContext
13.71
3.43
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.93
31%
On target shareContext
36%
7.54
Shots in the boxContext
8.43
66%
Box shareContext
64%
8%
ConversionContext
10%
3.27
OffsidesContext
2.91
10.86
Shots allowedContext
11.79
3.36
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.64
4.08
BlocksContext
3.45
2.46
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.82
70%
Save rateContext
65%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
423
PassesContext
431
342
Accurate passesContext
355
81%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.76
15.64
FoulsContext
15.07
13.50
Fouls sufferedContext
11.36
2.29
Yellow cardsContext
2.21
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.14
xGVia Att/Def
1.18
0.91
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.06
-0.34
Goals minus xGContext
+0.32
50%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.90
ShotsContext
12.20
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.90
29%
On target shareContext
40%
7.90
Shots in the boxContext
7.60
68%
Box shareContext
66%
7%
ConversionContext
12%
3.88
OffsidesContext
3.22
10.30
Shots allowedContext
11.00
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.90
4.25
BlocksContext
2.75
1.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.13
59%
Save rateContext
68%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
424
PassesContext
419
346
Accurate passesContext
338
81%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.67
Team ratingContext
6.77
15.70
FoulsContext
15.10
13.30
Fouls sufferedContext
12.40
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Alaves
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km861 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Real Sociedad
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel77 km123 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Alaves |
Real Sociedad |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7La Liga 2025-2026, 29 Nov | 6.1La Liga 2025-2026, 30 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 77 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 861 km | 123 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.2 | 6.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Alaves
Confirmed XI
1Antonio Sivera(G)
24Víctor Parada
5Jon Pacheco
14F. Tenaglia
17Jonny
6Ander Guevara
21A. Rebbach
4Denis Suárez
19Pablo Ibáñez
20Calebe
15L. Boyé
Real Sociedad
Confirmed XI
1Álex Remiro(G)
17Sergio Gómez
6Elustondo
31Jon Martín
2J. Aramburu
4Jon Gorrotxategi
11Gonçalo Guedes
18Carlos Soler
23Brais Méndez
14T. Kubo
15U. Sadiq
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Alaves
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Real Sociedad
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Alaves+0.5 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Real Sociedad-0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Alaves · Home
1.57points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-2
- Scored
- 1.29
- Conceded
- 1.00
Real Sociedad · Away
0.86points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-3
- Scored
- 1.14
- Conceded
- 1.43
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 10 this season
| Opponent | Alaves | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | L 1–3 A | L 1–2 A |
| Celta Vigo | L 0–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Espanyol | W 2–1 H | D 2–2 H |
| Rayo Vallecano | L 0–1 A | L 0–1 H |
| Valencia | D 0–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Elche | W 3–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Mallorca | L 0–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Sevilla | L 1–2 H | W 2–1 H |
| Athletic Club | W 1–0 A | W 3–2 H |
| Real Betis | L 0–1 A | L 1–3 A |
| Points | 10 of 30 · 1.00 per game | 13 of 30 · 1.30 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
2 Alaves wins3 draws3 Real Sociedad wins
Goals per game0.63 – 1.13
Over 2.525%
Both scored38%
Clean sheets25% · 50%
- 23 Apr 2025Alaves1–0Real Sociedad
- 28 Aug 2024Real Sociedad1–2Alaves
- 31 Mar 2024Alaves0–1Real Sociedad
- 2 Jan 2024Real Sociedad1–1Alaves
- 13 Mar 2022Real Sociedad1–0Alaves
- 2 Jan 2022Alaves1–1Real Sociedad
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Alaves | Real Sociedad | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.86 | 1.36 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.07 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 1.93 | 2.86 | 2.51 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 79% | |
| Over 2.5 | 36% | 57% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 14% | 36% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 79% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 7% | |
| Failed to score | 43% | 14% | |
| Games | 14 | 14 |
| Alaves | Real Sociedad | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 3.00 | 2.51 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Alaves | Real Sociedad | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.08 | 6.29 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.46 | 3.86 | |
| Match total | 9.54 | 10.15 | 9.72 |
| Over 8.5 | 54% 7/13 | 57% 8/14 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 5/13 | 57% 8/14 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 5/13 | 50% 7/14 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.36 | 2.21 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.29 | 2.57 | |
| Match total | 4.65 | 4.78 | 4.28 |
| Over 3.5 | 79% 11/14 | 64% 9/14 | |
| Over 4.5 | 57% 8/14 | 29% 4/14 | |
| Alaves | Real Sociedad | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.22 | 5.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.44 | 3.90 | |
| Match total | 9.66 | 9.30 | 9.72 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.90 | |
| Match total | 4.70 | 5.30 | 4.28 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Javier Alberola Rojas Spain · 30 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.60league 4.03
Red cards0.17league 0.28
Cards 5+30%league 45%
Fouls24.8league 24.6
Penalties0.27league 0.33
Home wins47%league 47%
Alaves1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W24 Nov 23H · Granada CF3–11
Real Sociedad1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L4 Nov 23H · Barcelona0–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Alaves14 games · scored 12 · conceded 15
3
3
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
4
3
76-90
Real Sociedad14 games · scored 19 · conceded 21
1
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
7
31-45
6
5
46-60
3
1
61-75
5
3
76-90
Alaves10 games · scored 8 · conceded 12
2
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
Real Sociedad10 games · scored 15 · conceded 15
1
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
4
31-45
4
4
46-60
1
1
61-75
5
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
