Alaves vs Villarreal – 13 Mar 2026

La Liga Gameweek 28 Fri, Mar 13 · 20:00 Estadio de Mendizorroza, Vitoria-Gasteiz

Alaves 16th · 27 pts · 27 played LDDLL

1–1Full time

Villarreal 4th · 54 pts · 27 played LWWLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Villarreal were slight favourites.

Villarreal were the stronger side on L90 Strength (68 vs 41). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Alaves. Alaves had 5 days of rest, Villarreal 5.3 and had to travel 388 km.

Away travel388 kmRest days5 · 5.3Matches / 14d2 · 2

Alaves32%

Draw27%

Villarreal41%

Expected goals 1.24 – 1.43

Alaves28%

Draw26%

Villarreal46%

Expected goals 1.15 – 1.55

Alaves31%

Draw27%

Villarreal41%

Expected goals 1.21 – 1.42

Alaves26%

Draw26%

Villarreal48%

Expected goals 1.11 – 1.61

Alaves32%

Draw26%

Villarreal42%

Expected goals 1.35 – 1.58

Over 2.5 50% Both score 55% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Vitoria-Gasteiz)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainAlejandro Quintero Gonzalez

Cards per match 5.0
Penalties per match 0.41
Matches 17

Team strength

Alaves

Villarreal

41 L90 StrengthIn forecast 68

48 Current StrengthIn forecast 65

48 AttackIn forecast 76

55 DefenceIn forecast 73

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Alaves

Attack—

Defense risk—

Villarreal

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Alaves

Villarreal

0.93 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.85

1.37 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.19

1.16 xGVia Att/Def 1.49

1.26 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.16

-0.23 Goals minus xGContext +0.36

63% Scored inContext 85%

11% Clean sheetsContext 30%

11.74 ShotsContext 11.78

4.04 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.41

33% On target shareContext 37%

7.77 Shots in the boxContext 8.11

66% Box shareContext 68%

8% ConversionContext 16%

2.50 OffsidesContext 2.95

12.52 Shots allowedContext 12.15

3.89 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.85

4.28 BlocksContext 3.96

2.58 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.68

64% Save rateContext 68%

51% PossessionIn forecast 44%

424 PassesContext 391

344 Accurate passesContext 323

81% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.75 Team ratingContext 6.88

15.04 FoulsContext 12.07

13.56 Fouls sufferedContext 11.78

2.15 Yellow cardsContext 2.33

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.07

This league season, per match · 27 and 27 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80

1.31 xGVia Att/Def 1.16

1.57 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.31

-0.21 Goals minus xGContext +0.24

70% Scored inContext 80%

0% Clean sheetsContext 10%

13.60 ShotsContext 10.30

5.44 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.90

36% On target shareContext 38%

8.60 Shots in the boxContext 7.10

65% Box shareContext 66%

8% ConversionContext 14%

1.75 OffsidesContext 1.88

14.90 Shots allowedContext 12.40

4.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.60

5.20 BlocksContext 3.00

2.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.11

61% Save rateContext 64%

52% PossessionIn forecast 42%

431 PassesContext 370

349 Accurate passesContext 301

81% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.79 Team ratingContext 6.72

14.40 FoulsContext 12.70

13.30 Fouls sufferedContext 11.60

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Alaves

Rest5 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km1,686 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Villarreal

Rest5.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel388 km499 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Alaves	Villarreal
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5La Liga 2025-2026, 8 Mar	5.3La Liga 2025-2026, 8 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	388 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,686 km	499 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	8.8	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Alaves Confirmed XI

3-5-2

1Antonio Sivera(G)

24Víctor Parada 14F. Tenaglia 17Jonny

3Youssef Lekhedim 10Carles Aleñá 8Antonio Blanco 19Pablo Ibáñez 7Ángel Pérez

11Toni Martínez 15L. Boyé

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Villarreal Confirmed XI

4-4-2

1Luíz Júnior(G)

23Sergi Cardona 4Rafa Marín 6Pau Navarro 15S. Mouriño

24A. Pedraza Sag 18P. Gueye 14Santi Comesaña 17T. Buchanan

9G. Mikautadze 19N. Pépé

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Alaves Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Villarreal Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Alaves+0.6 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Villarreal-0.3 pp

Home / Away this season

Alaves · Home 1.46points per game · 13 home games

W-D-L: 5-4-4
Scored: 1.23
Conceded: 1.15

Villarreal · Away 1.54points per game · 13 away games

W-D-L: 6-2-5
Scored: 1.46
Conceded: 1.54

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Alaves	Villarreal
Valencia	L 2–3 AD 0–0 H	W 2–1 HW 2–0 A
Levante	L 0–2 AW 2–1 H	W 1–0 A
Girona	D 2–2 HL 0–1 A	W 5–0 H
Sevilla	D 1–1 AL 1–2 H	W 2–1 A
Getafe	L 0–2 HD 1–1 A	L 1–2 AW 2–0 H
Espanyol	W 2–1 AW 2–1 H	W 4–1 HW 2–0 A
Real Betis	W 2–1 HL 0–1 A	L 0–2 AD 2–2 H
Atletico Madrid	L 0–1 AD 1–1 H	L 0–2 A
Oviedo	D 1–1 H	W 2–0 H
Osasuna	L 0–3 A	D 2–2 AW 2–1 H
Real Madrid	L 1–2 H	L 0–2 HL 1–3 A
Real Sociedad	W 1–0 H	W 3–2 A
Barcelona	L 1–3 A	L 1–4 AL 0–2 H
Celta Vigo	L 0–1 H	D 1–1 A
Rayo Vallecano	L 0–1 A	W 4–0 H
Elche	W 3–1 H	W 2–1 HW 3–1 A
Mallorca	L 0–1 A	W 2–1 H
Athletic Club	W 1–0 A	W 1–0 H
Points	27 of 78 · 1.04 per game	51 of 78 · 1.96 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

3 Alaves wins2 draws4 Villarreal wins

Goals per game1.22 – 2.00 Over 2.567% Both scored78% Clean sheets11% · 11%

10 Jan 2026Villarreal3–1Alaves
8 Mar 2025Alaves1–0Villarreal
9 Nov 2024Villarreal3–0Alaves
10 Feb 2024Alaves1–1Villarreal
22 Oct 2023Villarreal1–1Alaves
30 Apr 2022Alaves2–1Villarreal

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Alaves	Villarreal	Forecast
Scored per game	0.93	1.85
Conceded per game	1.37	1.19
Match goals	2.30	3.04	2.68
Over 1.5	67%	93%
Over 2.5	44%	59%	50%
Over 3.5	19%	37%
Both teams scored	56%	56%	55%
Clean sheets	11%	30%
Failed to score	37%	15%
Games	27	27

	Alaves	Villarreal	Forecast
Scored per game	1.10	1.60
Conceded per game	1.70	1.60
Match goals	2.80	3.20	2.68
Over 1.5	90%	90%
Over 2.5	50%	70%	50%
Over 3.5	30%	40%
Both teams scored	70%	70%	55%
Clean sheets	0%	10%
Failed to score	30%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Alaves	Villarreal	League
Corners
Corners won	5.04	3.92
Corners conceded	5.04	4.58
Match total	10.08	8.50	9.53
Over 8.5	67% 16/24	42% 10/24
Over 9.5	54% 13/24	38% 9/24
Over 10.5	50% 12/24	29% 7/24
Cards
Cards	2.33	2.44
Opponent cards	2.15	2.07
Match total	4.48	4.51	4.45
Over 3.5	70% 19/27	67% 18/27
Over 4.5	48% 13/27	48% 13/27

	Alaves	Villarreal	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	3.70
Corners conceded	5.56	4.60
Match total	10.56	8.30	9.53
Over 8.5	78% 7/9	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	67% 6/9	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	56% 5/9	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	2.40	2.60
Opponent cards	2.10	2.00
Match total	4.50	4.60	4.45
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Alejandro Quintero Gonzalez Spain · 17 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.47league 4.20

Red cards0.53league 0.28

Cards 5+53%league 46%

Fouls24.8league 24.5

Penalties0.41league 0.37

Home wins35%league 47%

Alaves1 with this referee

Record0-1-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

D24 Sep 25A · Getafe1–12

Villarreal3 with this referee

Record2-1-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.3 Pens for · against0 · 1

D31 Aug 25A · Celta Vigo1–11
W24 Aug 25H · Girona5–01
W3 May 25H · Osasuna4–24

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.