Alverca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Famalicao were the stronger side on L90 Strength (37 vs 24). Alverca had 8 days of rest, Famalicao 8.1 and had to travel 282 km.
Away travel282 kmRest days8 · 8.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Alverca34%
Draw28%
Famalicao38%
Alverca35%
Draw27%
Famalicao38%
Alverca34%
Draw28%
Famalicao38%
Alverca28%
Draw28%
Famalicao45%
Alverca35%
Draw27%
Famalicao38%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Alverca do Ribatejo)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalDiogo Rosa
- Cards per match 8.0
- Penalties per match 0.00
- Matches 3
Team strength
Alverca
Famalicao
24
L90 StrengthIn forecast
37
30
Current StrengthIn forecast
38
38
AttackIn forecast
24
42
DefenceIn forecast
36
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFamalicao
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AlvercaFamalicao
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.25
1.69
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.81
1.04
xGVia Att/Def
1.36
1.28
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.00
-0.04
Goals minus xGContext
-0.11
69%
Scored inContext
75%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
8.81
ShotsContext
12.81
3.93
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.53
42%
On target shareContext
33%
5.93
Shots in the boxContext
8.88
65%
Box shareContext
69%
11%
ConversionContext
10%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.80
13.06
Shots allowedContext
10.88
4.47
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.13
4.13
BlocksContext
2.60
3.07
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.31
66%
Save rateContext
80%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
354
PassesContext
373
284
Accurate passesContext
301
80%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.94
12.31
FoulsContext
17.69
14.00
Fouls sufferedContext
16.00
2.44
Yellow cardsContext
2.88
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.03
xGVia Att/Def
1.53
1.14
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.00
-0.03
Goals minus xGContext
-0.23
60%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
9.50
ShotsContext
14.30
4.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.44
41%
On target shareContext
34%
6.67
Shots in the boxContext
9.60
67%
Box shareContext
66%
11%
ConversionContext
9%
2.29
OffsidesContext
1.83
13.50
Shots allowedContext
10.60
4.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
4.50
BlocksContext
2.50
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.40
62%
Save rateContext
77%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
367
PassesContext
387
297
Accurate passesContext
315
81%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.93
10.90
FoulsContext
16.90
13.70
Fouls sufferedContext
16.00
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
3.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Alverca
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km76 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Famalicao
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel282 km606 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Alverca |
Famalicao |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 27 Dec | 8.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 27 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 282 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 76 km | 606 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 12.9 | 13.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Alverca
Confirmed XI
13André Gomes(G)
33B. Meupiyou
5Sergi Gómez
4Kaiky Naves
55Francisco Chissumba
8Alexsandro Amorim
21S. Abdulai
2Zoubdi
11Cedric Nuozzi
18Lincoln
91Sandro Lima
Famalicao
Confirmed XI
25L. Carević(G)
5Rafa Soares
16J. de Haas
3L. Realpe
17Rodrigo Pinheiro
6T. van de Looi
14M. De Amorim
77A. Joujou
20Gustavo Sá
7Sorriso
21M. Zabiri
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Alverca
Absences are shown before kick-off
Famalicao
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Alverca+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Famalicao+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Alverca · Home
1.25points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-4
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 1.63
Famalicao · Away
1.71points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.71
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Alverca | Famalicao |
|---|---|---|
| Estoril | L 1–4 A | W 4–0 H |
| FC Porto | L 0–3 H | L 0–1 H |
| Arouca | L 0–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Nacional | W 1–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| Casa Pia | W 2–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| Rio Ave | D 1–1 H | D 0–0 H |
| Sporting CP | L 0–2 A | L 1–2 H |
| GIL Vicente | L 0–4 H | D 0–0 H |
| AVS | W 3–1 A | W 1–0 A |
| Guimaraes | W 2–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| Santa Clara | L 1–2 A | W 3–0 H |
| Tondela | W 1–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| Benfica | L 1–2 H | L 0–1 A |
| Estrela | D 2–2 A | L 2–3 H |
| SC Braga | L 0–3 H | L 1–2 H |
| Moreirense | L 1–2 A | D 2–2 A |
| Points | 17 of 48 · 1.06 per game | 23 of 48 · 1.44 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Alverca | Famalicao | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.69 | 0.81 | |
| Match goals | 2.69 | 2.06 | 2.50 |
| Over 1.5 | 81% | 56% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 38% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 19% | |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 38% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 31% | 25% | |
| Games | 16 | 16 |
| Alverca | Famalicao | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.30 | 2.50 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 40% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Alverca | Famalicao | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.83 | 5.31 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.25 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 8.08 | 10.31 | 9.19 |
| Over 8.5 | 42% 5/12 | 69% 11/16 | |
| Over 9.5 | 42% 5/12 | 50% 8/16 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 3/12 | 50% 8/16 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.63 | 2.94 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.63 | 2.38 | |
| Match total | 5.26 | 5.32 | 5.41 |
| Over 3.5 | 56% 9/16 | 75% 12/16 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 8/16 | 56% 9/16 | |
| Alverca | Famalicao | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.13 | 5.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.88 | 5.30 | |
| Match total | 8.01 | 11.10 | 9.19 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 6.00 | 5.41 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Diogo Rosa Portugal · 3 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards7.67league 5.07
Red cards0.33league 0.29
Cards 5+100%league 61%
Fouls29.0league 27.3
Penalties0.00league 0.43
Home wins67%league 37%
AlvercaNo previous matches with this referee.
FamalicaoNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Alverca16 games · scored 16 · conceded 27
6
0-15
1
2
16-30
6
7
31-45
1
5
46-60
1
5
61-75
7
2
76-90
Famalicao16 games · scored 20 · conceded 13
3
1
0-15
5
3
16-30
3
2
31-45
4
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
Alverca10 games · scored 10 · conceded 16
2
0-15
1
16-30
2
4
31-45
1
5
46-60
1
4
61-75
6
76-90
Famalicao10 games · scored 13 · conceded 10
2
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
