Alverca vs Nacional – 21 Feb 2027

Primeira Liga Gameweek 23 Sun, Feb 21 · 16:00 Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca, Alverca do Ribatejo

Alverca 8th · 11 pts · 8 played DLWWW

VS— Compare

Nacional 16th · 4 pts · 8 played LLLLL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel992 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2

Real contextStrength only

Alverca—%

Draw—%

Nacional—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Alverca do Ribatejo)

Forecast from 6 Feb

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Team strength

Alverca

Nacional

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

30 Current StrengthIn forecast 17

38 AttackIn forecast 15

42 DefenceIn forecast 13

64 Form indexContext 5

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Alverca

Attack—

Defense risk—

Nacional

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Alverca

Nacional

1.63 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.13

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.25

1.44 xGVia Att/Def 1.16

1.57 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.92

+0.19 Goals minus xGContext -0.03

88% Scored inContext 63%

13% Clean sheetsContext 13%

12.00 ShotsContext 11.00

4.13 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.57

34% On target shareContext 28%

7.38 Shots in the boxContext 7.29

59% Box shareContext 60%

14% ConversionContext 10%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.50

12.13 Shots allowedContext 14.63

4.25 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.25

3.29 BlocksContext 3.14

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.63

71% Save rateContext 58%

43% PossessionIn forecast 50%

343 PassesContext 406

273 Accurate passesContext 334

80% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.73 Team ratingContext 6.61

14.63 FoulsContext 11.13

11.00 Fouls sufferedContext 12.25

2.25 Yellow cardsContext 1.25

0.13 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

1.28 xGVia Att/Def 1.05

1.33 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.76

+0.12 Goals minus xGContext +0.05

80% Scored inContext 60%

10% Clean sheetsContext 20%

11.00 ShotsContext 10.50

3.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.22

32% On target shareContext 28%

6.80 Shots in the boxContext 6.78

60% Box shareContext 60%

13% ConversionContext 11%

2.14 OffsidesContext 1.43

11.80 Shots allowedContext 14.20

3.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.60

3.00 BlocksContext 3.22

2.70 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.78

69% Save rateContext 63%

43% PossessionIn forecast 49%

350 PassesContext 390

281 Accurate passesContext 317

80% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.73 Team ratingContext 6.61

14.40 FoulsContext 12.20

11.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.90

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Alverca DLWWW

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km3,508 km in 14d

Schedule load10%Low

Form 64 · 10 pts vs 8.5 for an average club · +3.5 vs expected

W12 OctA · Famalicao4–10.9 xPts
W19 SepH · Rio Ave1–01.8 xPts
W12 SepA · Nacional3–11.3 xPts
L5 SepH · SC Braga1–21.0 xPts
D29 AugH · Santa Clara1–11.5 xPts

Nacional LLLLL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel992 km1,937 km in 14d

Schedule load17%Low

Form 5 · 0 pts vs 8.3 for an average club · -5.4 vs expected

L11 OctA · Rio Ave2–31.0 xPts
L19 SepH · Famalicao0–41.1 xPts
L12 SepH · Alverca1–31.4 xPts
L5 SepA · Sporting CP0–20.3 xPts
L30 AugH · Estrela2–31.6 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Alverca	Nacional
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 10	Low · 17
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 14 Feb	7Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 14 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	992 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	3,508 km	1,937 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	7	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Alverca Last XI · not confirmed

3-4-3 · vs Famalicao (A) 4–1, 12 Oct

31Matheus Mendes(G)

12Isaac James 21Sergi Gómez 14S. Baseya

55Francisco Chissumba 6D. Gui 35Rayan Lucas 20Diogo Spencer

22Figueiredo 19D. Camara 10Chiquinho

Nacional Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Rio Ave (A) 2–3, 11 Oct

1R. Bellucci(G)

21W. Kokolo 38Zé Vitor 33Francisco Gonçalves 88Deivison

31D. Dongmo 15C. Labidi

12M. Song 20M. Djaló 10Daniel Júnior

29N. Kader

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Alverca Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Nacional Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Alverca · Home 1.25points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 1-2-1
Scored: 1.25
Conceded: 1.25

Nacional · Away 0.25points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 0-1-3
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 5 this season

Opponent	Alverca	Nacional
Famalicao	W 4–1 A	L 0–4 H
Rio Ave	W 1–0 H	L 2–3 A
Santa Clara	D 1–1 H	D 2–2 A
Sporting CP	L 1–3 A	L 0–2 A
Estrela	D 2–2 H	L 2–3 H
Points	8 of 15 · 1.60 per game	1 of 15 · 0.20 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings

2 Alverca wins0 draws1 Nacional wins

Goals per game1.33 – 0.67 Over 2.533% Both scored33% Clean sheets33% · 33%

12 Sep 2026Nacional1–3Alverca
18 Apr 2026Nacional1–0Alverca
7 Dec 2025Alverca1–0Nacional

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Alverca	Nacional
Scored per game	1.63	1.13
Conceded per game	1.50	2.25
Match goals	3.13	3.38
Over 1.5	88%	88%
Over 2.5	63%	63%
Over 3.5	50%	63%
Both teams scored	75%	50%
Clean sheets	13%	13%
Failed to score	13%	38%
Games	8	8

	Alverca	Nacional
Scored per game	1.40	1.10
Conceded per game	1.40	2.00
Match goals	2.80	3.10
Over 1.5	80%	90%
Over 2.5	50%	50%
Over 3.5	40%	50%
Both teams scored	70%	40%
Clean sheets	10%	20%
Failed to score	20%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Alverca	Nacional	League
Corners
Corners won	6.00	5.50
Corners conceded	4.50	4.33
Match total	10.50	9.83	8.91
Over 8.5	67% 4/6	50% 3/6
Over 9.5	67% 4/6	50% 3/6
Over 10.5	67% 4/6	33% 2/6
Cards
Cards	2.38	1.38
Opponent cards	1.88	2.63
Match total	4.26	4.01	4.55
Over 3.5	63% 5/8	50% 4/8
Over 4.5	38% 3/8	25% 2/8

	Alverca	Nacional	League
Corners
Corners won	5.63	5.13
Corners conceded	4.63	4.50
Match total	10.26	9.63	8.91
Over 8.5	63% 5/8	50% 4/8
Over 9.5	63% 5/8	50% 4/8
Over 10.5	63% 5/8	25% 2/8
Cards
Cards	2.40	1.70
Opponent cards	1.80	2.50
Match total	4.20	4.20	4.55
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.