Santa Clara
Attack—
Defense risk—
Primeira Liga
Gameweek 23 Sun, Feb 21 · 16:00
Estádio de São Miguel, Ponta Delgada, Ilha de São Miguel, Açores
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel1,537 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Santa Clara—%
Draw—%
Arouca—%
Weather (Ponta Delgada, Ilha de São Miguel, Açores)
Forecast from 6 Feb
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Santa Clara and Arouca. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Santa Clara
+0.43
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.18xG against0.75
-
Insight
Santa Clara
5
Clean sheets
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Trend
Santa Clara
1.5
Goals scored per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Arouca
4
Clean sheets
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
Arouca
0.9
Goals conceded per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Attack
Defence
-
Insight
Santa Clara
5
Clean sheets
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
Santa Clara
0.5
Goals conceded per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Arouca
4
Clean sheets
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
Arouca
0.9
Goals conceded per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Team strength
Santa ClaraArouca
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
29
AttackIn forecast
28
53
DefenceIn forecast
37
73
Form indexContext
45
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisArouca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Santa ClaraArouca
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.38
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.88
1.29
xGVia Att/Def
1.13
0.76
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.57
+0.21
Goals minus xGContext
+0.25
88%
Scored inContext
75%
63%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
13.13
ShotsContext
10.50
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.75
27%
On target shareContext
36%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
6.25
60%
Box shareContext
60%
11%
ConversionContext
13%
1.80
OffsidesContext
1.83
7.75
Shots allowedContext
14.25
2.38
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
1.63
BlocksContext
3.75
2.14
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.63
83%
Save rateContext
81%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
379
PassesContext
440
300
Accurate passesContext
372
79%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.86
13.25
FoulsContext
10.38
13.50
Fouls sufferedContext
10.38
2.75
Yellow cardsContext
2.88
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.18
xGVia Att/Def
1.22
0.75
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.29
+0.22
Goals minus xGContext
+0.48
80%
Scored inContext
80%
60%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
12.60
ShotsContext
11.30
3.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
24%
On target shareContext
35%
7.60
Shots in the boxContext
6.80
59%
Box shareContext
60%
11%
ConversionContext
15%
1.57
OffsidesContext
2.00
8.80
Shots allowedContext
13.80
2.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
2.10
BlocksContext
4.00
2.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.40
88%
Save rateContext
79%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
367
PassesContext
439
289
Accurate passesContext
370
79%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.92
12.50
FoulsContext
11.00
13.40
Fouls sufferedContext
10.70
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Santa Clara
DWWDW
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km3,006 km in 14d
Schedule load10%Low
Form 73 · 11 pts vs 8.3 for an average club · +3.7 vs expected
Arouca
WDLDW
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel1,537 km2,396 km in 14d
Schedule load25%Moderate
Form 45 · 8 pts vs 8.5 for an average club · +0.9 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Santa Clara |
Arouca |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 10 | Moderate · 25 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 14 Feb | 7Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 14 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,537 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 3,006 km | 2,396 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Santa Clara
Last XI · not confirmed
1Lucas França(G)
5Guilherme Romão
21Emanuel Fernandes
4Pedro Pacheco
42Lucas Soares
20Tiago Ribeiro
6Pedro Ferreira
8José Tavares
10Brenner Lucas Gonçalves Santos
9Gonçalo Paciência
70Vinícius Lopes
Arouca
Last XI · not confirmed
12I. de Arruabarrena(G)
18O. Lebedenko
3José Fontán
15Javi Sánchez
28Tiago Esgaio
8T. Fukui
6E. van Ee
7N. Djouahra
10Pablo Gozálbez
19A. Trezza
17Barbero
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Santa Clara
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Arouca
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Santa Clara · Home
2.00points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-0
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 0.50
Arouca · Away
1.25points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-1
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
2 Santa Clara wins2 draws3 Arouca wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.00
Over 2.543%
Both scored43%
Clean sheets29% · 43%
- 13 Sep 2026Arouca1–2Santa Clara
- 2 May 2026Arouca2–2Santa Clara
- 21 Dec 2025Santa Clara0–0Arouca
- 26 Apr 2025Santa Clara2–0Arouca
- 15 Dec 2024Arouca1–0Santa Clara
- 11 Feb 2023Arouca1–0Santa Clara
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Santa Clara | Arouca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.38 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 0.88 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.25 | |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 63% | |
| Over 2.5 | 38% | 50% | |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 38% | |
| Clean sheets | 63% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 25% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Santa Clara | Arouca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 1.90 | 2.60 | |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 60% | |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% | |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Santa Clara | Arouca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.13 | 3.13 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.38 | 5.38 | |
| Match total | 9.51 | 8.51 | 8.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 5/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.88 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.25 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 5.13 | 6.00 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 6/8 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 38% 3/8 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Santa Clara | Arouca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.20 | 3.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.70 | 5.40 | |
| Match total | 9.90 | 8.60 | 8.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 5.50 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Santa Clara8 games · scored 12 · conceded 4
2
0-15
4
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
61-75
3
76-90
Arouca8 games · scored 11 · conceded 7
1
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
46-60
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
Santa Clara10 games · scored 14 · conceded 5
2
0-15
5
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
61-75
4
76-90
Arouca10 games · scored 17 · conceded 9
1
1
0-15
3
3
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
6
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
