Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sat, Feb 13 · 16:00 Lotto Park, Brussel
Anderlecht 5th · 16 pts · 8 played
First leg1–0 VS— Compare
KV Mechelen 14th · 6 pts · 8 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel21 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Anderlecht—%
Draw—%
KV Mechelen—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Brussel)

Forecast from 29 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Anderlecht and KV Mechelen. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

AnderlechtKV Mechelen
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
43 Current StrengthIn forecast 23
37 AttackIn forecast 18
52 DefenceIn forecast 23
59 Form indexContext 20
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Anderlecht

Attack—
Defense risk—

KV Mechelen

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

AnderlechtKV Mechelen
1.13 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.13
0.75 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.13
1.39 xGVia Att/Def 1.02
0.87 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.42
-0.26 Goals minus xGContext +0.11
63% Scored inContext 38%
50% Clean sheetsContext 13%
15.00 ShotsContext 11.13
4.75 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.57
32% On target shareContext 28%
9.50 Shots in the boxContext 7.88
61% Box shareContext 68%
8% ConversionContext 10%
1.43 OffsidesContext 2.86
9.88 Shots allowedContext 14.50
3.63 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.71
2.00 BlocksContext 3.00
2.75 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.29
76% Save rateContext 58%
62% PossessionIn forecast 47%
560 PassesContext 407
482 Accurate passesContext 317
86% Pass accuracyContext 78%
6.99 Team ratingContext 6.55
12.38 FoulsContext 12.25
11.50 Fouls sufferedContext 13.88
2.13 Yellow cardsContext 1.50
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games
1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10
0.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.20
0.95 xGVia Att/Def 0.88
1.10 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.48
+0.45 Goals minus xGContext +0.22
70% Scored inContext 40%
60% Clean sheetsContext 10%
11.88 ShotsContext 10.90
4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.33
38% On target shareContext 28%
7.63 Shots in the boxContext 7.40
61% Box shareContext 65%
8% ConversionContext 10%
1.50 OffsidesContext 2.63
11.25 Shots allowedContext 14.50
4.63 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.56
1.90 BlocksContext 3.40
3.75 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50
81% Save rateContext 60%
60% PossessionIn forecast 47%
533 PassesContext 400
459 Accurate passesContext 311
86% Pass accuracyContext 78%
6.93 Team ratingContext 6.55
12.90 FoulsContext 10.90
12.60 Fouls sufferedContext 12.80
2.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.50
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Anderlecht
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km49 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 59 · 9 pts vs 8.0 for an average club · +1.4 vs expected
  • L15 OctA · Dinamo Zagreb0–11.2 xPts
  • W10 OctA · Cercle Brugge2–11.6 xPts
  • W19 SepH · Zulte Waregem3–01.7 xPts
  • L16 SepH · Lyon1–21.5 xPts
  • W11 SepA · KV Mechelen1–01.7 xPts
KV Mechelen
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel21 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 20 · 5 pts vs 8.8 for an average club · -1.2 vs expected
  • W11 OctH · St. Truiden4–31.3 xPts
  • D19 SepA · Lommel United0–00.9 xPts
  • L11 SepH · Anderlecht0–11.1 xPts
  • L5 SepH · KVC Westerlo0–41.7 xPts
  • D29 AugA · RAAL La Louvière2–21.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Anderlecht KV Mechelen
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 6 Feb7Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 6 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km21 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways49 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 51 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.

Squad & lineups

Anderlecht Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Dinamo Zagreb (A) 0–1, 15 Oct
26C. Coosemans(G)
5O. Reabciuk 27L. Pétrot 12A. Omobamidele 50K. Barry
19Thelo Aasgaard 29M. Stroeykens
83T. Degreef 18L. Ambros 10M. Winkler
9M. Cvetković
KV Mechelen Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-2-1 · vs St. Truiden (H) 4–3, 11 Oct
13Nacho Mirás(G)
3José Marsà 44M. Eerdhuijzen 20K. Corbanie
7T. Koudou 30Marco Decherf 6F. Hammar 23S. Michez
9M. van Brederode 14B. Raman
28B. Boersma

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Anderlecht Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
KV Mechelen Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Anderlecht · Home 2.50points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
3-1-0
Scored
1.50
Conceded
0.25
KV Mechelen · Away 0.50points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
0-2-2
Scored
0.50
Conceded
1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

OpponentAnderlechtKV Mechelen
RAAL La Louvière W 2–1 H D 2–2 A
Points3 of 3 · 3.00 per game1 of 3 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

4 Anderlecht wins2 draws1 KV Mechelen wins
Goals per game1.86 – 1.14 Over 2.571% Both scored71% Clean sheets14% · 14%
  • 11 Sep 2026KV Mechelen0–1Anderlecht
  • 17 May 2026Anderlecht2–2KV Mechelen
  • 18 Apr 2026KV Mechelen1–2Anderlecht
  • 15 Mar 2026KV Mechelen1–0Anderlecht
  • 1 Nov 2025Anderlecht3–1KV Mechelen
  • 1 Feb 2024KV Mechelen2–2Anderlecht

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

AnderlechtKV MechelenForecast
Scored per game 1.131.13
Conceded per game 0.752.13
Match goals 1.883.25
Over 1.5 50%75%
Over 2.5 50%50%
Over 3.5 0%50%
Both teams scored 25%38%
Clean sheets 50%13%
Failed to score 38%63%
Games88
AnderlechtKV MechelenForecast
Scored per game 1.401.10
Conceded per game 0.702.10
Match goals 2.103.20
Over 1.5 60%70%
Over 2.5 60%50%
Over 3.5 0%50%
Both teams scored 20%40%
Clean sheets 60%20%
Failed to score 30%50%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

AnderlechtKV MechelenLeague
Corners
Corners won6.634.63
Corners conceded3.134.25
Match total9.768.8810.01
Over 8.563% 5/850% 4/8
Over 9.538% 3/850% 4/8
Over 10.538% 3/838% 3/8
Cards
Cards2.131.50
Opponent cards1.382.13
Match total3.513.633.36
Over 3.550% 4/850% 4/8
Over 4.525% 2/850% 4/8
AnderlechtKV MechelenLeague
Corners
Corners won5.404.20
Corners conceded3.804.10
Match total9.208.3010.01
Over 8.560% 6/1040% 4/10
Over 9.540% 4/1040% 4/10
Over 10.510% 1/1030% 3/10
Cards
Cards2.201.50
Opponent cards1.802.10
Match total4.003.603.36
Over 3.560% 6/1050% 5/10
Over 4.530% 3/1040% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Anderlecht8 games · scored 9 · conceded 6
2 0-15
16-30
3 2 31-45
2 1 46-60
1 61-75
3 1 76-90
KV Mechelen8 games · scored 9 · conceded 17
1 3 0-15
1 2 16-30
3 6 31-45
1 1 46-60
1 3 61-75
2 2 76-90
Anderlecht10 games · scored 14 · conceded 7
1 2 0-15
1 1 16-30
5 2 31-45
3 46-60
2 61-75
2 2 76-90
KV Mechelen10 games · scored 11 · conceded 22
1 3 0-15
1 4 16-30
3 7 31-45
2 2 46-60
1 4 61-75
3 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Belgian Pro League

View all fixtures →
Lommel United Union St. Gilloise Feb 1316:00 KVC Westerlo Club Brugge KV Feb 1316:00 Anderlecht KV Mechelen Feb 1316:00 Standard Liege Zulte Waregem Feb 1316:00 St. Truiden Gent Feb 1316:00 SK Beveren Genk Feb 1316:00 Antwerp Kortrijk Feb 1316:00 Cercle Brugge Charleroi Feb 1316:00 RAAL La Louvière OH Leuven Feb 1316:00