Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sat, Feb 13 · 16:00 Jan Breydelstadion, Brugge
Cercle Brugge 17th · 3 pts · 8 played
First leg2–3 VS— Compare
Charleroi 3rd · 21 pts · 8 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel123 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Cercle Brugge—%
Draw—%
Charleroi—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Brugge)

Forecast from 29 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Cercle Brugge and Charleroi. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Cercle BruggeCharleroi
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
21 Current StrengthIn forecast 38
24 AttackIn forecast 43
28 DefenceIn forecast 50
6 Form indexContext 80
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Cercle Brugge

Attack—
Defense risk—

Charleroi

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Cercle BruggeCharleroi
1.13 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00
2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.88
1.74 xGVia Att/Def 1.86
1.68 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.73
-0.61 Goals minus xGContext +0.14
63% Scored inContext 100%
0% Clean sheetsContext 50%
14.13 ShotsContext 16.75
4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.63
28% On target shareContext 34%
10.71 Shots in the boxContext 11.63
70% Box shareContext 69%
8% ConversionContext 12%
1.50 OffsidesContext 1.86
12.63 Shots allowedContext 10.88
4.38 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00
3.88 BlocksContext 4.57
2.38 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.71
54% Save rateContext 79%
45% PossessionIn forecast 57%
370 PassesContext 496
291 Accurate passesContext 421
79% Pass accuracyContext 85%
6.61 Team ratingContext 7.10
12.38 FoulsContext 10.13
10.50 Fouls sufferedContext 13.38
1.25 Yellow cardsContext 1.13
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games
1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90
2.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.80
1.63 xGVia Att/Def 1.84
1.62 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.71
-0.43 Goals minus xGContext +0.06
70% Scored inContext 100%
0% Clean sheetsContext 50%
13.80 ShotsContext 16.80
4.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.70
30% On target shareContext 34%
10.11 Shots in the boxContext 11.80
69% Box shareContext 70%
9% ConversionContext 11%
1.90 OffsidesContext 2.00
12.80 Shots allowedContext 10.40
4.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.63
3.90 BlocksContext 4.50
2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.67
52% Save rateContext 83%
46% PossessionIn forecast 58%
370 PassesContext 484
292 Accurate passesContext 411
79% Pass accuracyContext 85%
6.64 Team ratingContext 7.08
12.30 FoulsContext 10.10
9.90 Fouls sufferedContext 12.50
1.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.30
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Cercle Brugge
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km180 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 6 · 1 pts vs 8.5 for an average club · -5.5 vs expected
  • L10 OctH · Anderlecht1–21.2 xPts
  • L19 SepA · Charleroi2–30.8 xPts
  • D12 SepA · OH Leuven1–11.5 xPts
  • L6 SepH · Gent0–31.3 xPts
  • L29 AugH · Lommel United0–11.6 xPts
Charleroi
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel123 km40 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 80 · 12 pts vs 8.1 for an average club · +4.5 vs expected
  • W11 OctA · Standard Liege1–01.4 xPts
  • W19 SepH · Cercle Brugge3–21.9 xPts
  • W13 SepA · Zulte Waregem1–01.2 xPts
  • L5 SepH · Union St. Gilloise2–31.2 xPts
  • W29 AugA · Kortrijk3–11.8 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Cercle Brugge Charleroi
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 6 Feb7Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 6 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km123 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways180 km40 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 41 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Cercle Brugge Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Anderlecht (H) 1–2, 10 Oct
1G. Coucke(G)
12Valy Konaté 24Geoffrey Kondo 5Emmanuel Kakou 15G. Magnée
28H. Van der Bruggen 18L. Le Roux
30B. Akinsola 20A. Manneh 11C. Herrmann
9S. Ngoura
Charleroi Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Standard Liege (A) 1–0, 11 Oct
30M. Koné(G)
24M. Nzita 95C. Keita 4A. Ousou 3K. Van Den Kerkhof
18Y. Khalifi 6A. Boukamir
20F. Mbemba 8J. Romsaas 14P. Pflücke
21A. Scheidler

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Cercle Brugge Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Charleroi Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Cercle Brugge · Home 0.25points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
0-1-3
Scored
1.00
Conceded
2.25
Charleroi · Away 3.00points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
4-0-0
Scored
1.50
Conceded
0.25

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

OpponentCercle BruggeCharleroi
OH Leuven D 1–1 A W 3–1 H
Lommel United L 0–1 H W 1–0 A
Standard Liege D 2–2 A W 1–0 A
Points2 of 9 · 0.67 per game9 of 9 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

2 Cercle Brugge wins1 draws2 Charleroi wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.80 Over 2.560% Both scored60% Clean sheets40% · 20%
  • 19 Sep 2026Charleroi3–2Cercle Brugge
  • 7 Feb 2026Charleroi3–4Cercle Brugge
  • 14 Sep 2025Cercle Brugge2–3Charleroi
  • 9 Mar 2024Charleroi0–0Cercle Brugge
  • 5 Aug 2023Cercle Brugge2–0Charleroi

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Cercle BruggeCharleroiForecast
Scored per game 1.132.00
Conceded per game 2.000.88
Match goals 3.132.88
Over 1.5 75%63%
Over 2.5 63%50%
Over 3.5 38%50%
Both teams scored 63%50%
Clean sheets 0%50%
Failed to score 38%0%
Games88
Cercle BruggeCharleroiForecast
Scored per game 1.301.60
Conceded per game 2.101.00
Match goals 3.402.60
Over 1.5 80%60%
Over 2.5 70%40%
Over 3.5 50%40%
Both teams scored 70%40%
Clean sheets 0%40%
Failed to score 30%20%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Cercle BruggeCharleroiLeague
Corners
Corners won7.295.50
Corners conceded4.574.38
Match total11.869.8810.01
Over 8.571% 5/763% 5/8
Over 9.571% 5/763% 5/8
Over 10.571% 5/763% 5/8
Cards
Cards1.251.13
Opponent cards1.631.38
Match total2.882.513.36
Over 3.525% 2/825% 2/8
Over 4.525% 2/80% 0/8
Cercle BruggeCharleroiLeague
Corners
Corners won6.676.50
Corners conceded5.004.70
Match total11.6711.2010.01
Over 8.578% 7/970% 7/10
Over 9.578% 7/970% 7/10
Over 10.578% 7/970% 7/10
Cards
Cards1.201.40
Opponent cards1.501.40
Match total2.702.803.36
Over 3.520% 2/1030% 3/10
Over 4.520% 2/1010% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Cercle Brugge8 games · scored 9 · conceded 16
1 2 0-15
2 3 16-30
1 3 31-45
2 46-60
1 2 61-75
4 4 76-90
Charleroi8 games · scored 16 · conceded 7
1 1 0-15
4 1 16-30
3 3 31-45
2 1 46-60
3 1 61-75
3 76-90
Cercle Brugge10 games · scored 12 · conceded 23
1 2 0-15
3 3 16-30
2 3 31-45
5 46-60
2 4 61-75
4 6 76-90
Charleroi10 games · scored 19 · conceded 8
1 1 0-15
4 2 16-30
3 3 31-45
3 1 46-60
4 1 61-75
4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Belgian Pro League

View all fixtures →
Lommel United Union St. Gilloise Feb 1316:00 KVC Westerlo Club Brugge KV Feb 1316:00 Anderlecht KV Mechelen Feb 1316:00 Standard Liege Zulte Waregem Feb 1316:00 St. Truiden Gent Feb 1316:00 SK Beveren Genk Feb 1316:00 Antwerp Kortrijk Feb 1316:00 Cercle Brugge Charleroi Feb 1316:00 RAAL La Louvière OH Leuven Feb 1316:00