Ligue 1 Gameweek 33 Sat, May 22 · 16:00 Stade Raymond-Kopa, Angers
Angers 15th · 7 pts · 7 played
VS— Compare
Stade Brestois 29 10th · 9 pts · 7 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel310 kmRest days6 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Angers—%
Draw—%
Stade Brestois 29—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Angers)

Forecast from 7 May

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Angers and Stade Brestois 29. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

AngersStade Brestois 29
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
19 Current StrengthIn forecast 34
22 AttackIn forecast 47
12 DefenceIn forecast 36
16 Form indexContext 49
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Angers

Attack—
Defense risk—

Stade Brestois 29

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

AngersStade Brestois 29
1.29 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.86
2.14 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.43
1.79 xGVia Att/Def 2.55
2.30 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.29
-0.50 Goals minus xGContext -0.69
71% Scored inContext 86%
29% Clean sheetsContext 0%
13.29 ShotsContext 17.14
3.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.86
23% On target shareContext 34%
9.00 Shots in the boxContext 11.29
68% Box shareContext 63%
10% ConversionContext 11%
2.00 OffsidesContext 2.40
17.29 Shots allowedContext 11.71
6.57 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.43
3.86 BlocksContext 2.57
4.71 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.67
72% Save rateContext 76%
49% PossessionIn forecast 46%
420 PassesContext 408
353 Accurate passesContext 333
84% Pass accuracyContext 82%
6.73 Team ratingContext 6.83
10.57 FoulsContext 14.14
13.00 Fouls sufferedContext 13.29
1.57 Yellow cardsContext 1.29
0.14 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games
1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50
2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40
1.52 xGVia Att/Def 2.02
1.96 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.29
-0.32 Goals minus xGContext -0.52
80% Scored inContext 80%
20% Clean sheetsContext 0%
12.10 ShotsContext 16.10
3.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.30
25% On target shareContext 33%
8.30 Shots in the boxContext 10.70
68% Box shareContext 64%
10% ConversionContext 9%
2.00 OffsidesContext 2.43
17.10 Shots allowedContext 12.30
6.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.40
3.50 BlocksContext 3.30
4.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.33
73% Save rateContext 71%
46% PossessionIn forecast 46%
394 PassesContext 414
328 Accurate passesContext 340
83% Pass accuracyContext 82%
6.71 Team ratingContext 6.86
10.00 FoulsContext 12.80
12.20 Fouls sufferedContext 11.70
1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.00
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Angers
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km878 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 16 · 4 pts vs 8.7 for an average club · -2.0 vs expected
  • L18 OctH · Marseille2–51.0 xPts
  • L10 OctA · Stade Brestois 291–50.9 xPts
  • W19 SepH · Estac Troyes2–01.8 xPts
  • D12 SepA · LE Havre0–01.2 xPts
  • L6 SepH · Rennes1–21.1 xPts
Stade Brestois 29
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel310 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 49 · 7 pts vs 7.2 for an average club · +0.6 vs expected
  • D17 OctA · Lille1–11.0 xPts
  • W10 OctH · Angers5–11.9 xPts
  • L20 SepA · Auxerre1–21.5 xPts
  • L13 SepH · Paris Saint Germain0–10.7 xPts
  • W5 SepA · LE Havre2–11.4 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Angers Stade Brestois 29
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match6Ligue 1 2026-2027, 16 May6Ligue 1 2026-2027, 16 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km310 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways878 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 41 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one7.27.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Angers Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Marseille (H) 2–5, 18 Oct
1A. Lopes(G)
27L. Rao-Lisoa 34Maël Gernigon 24E. Biumla 2C. Arcus
8B. van den Boomen 14Y. Belkhdim
10M. Sbaï 6L. Mouton 18J. Allevinah
19A. El Ouazzani
Stade Brestois 29 Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Lille (A) 1–1, 17 Oct
1E. Selvik(G)
2B. Locko 4G. Lloris 29L. Tousart 70K. Lala
8H. Magnetti 13J. Chotard
9P. Mboup 23K. Doumbia 17M. Baldé
19L. Ajorque

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Angers Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Stade Brestois 29 Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Angers · Home 0.75points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
1-0-3
Scored
1.25
Conceded
2.25
Stade Brestois 29 · Away 1.25points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
1-2-1
Scored
1.50
Conceded
1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

OpponentAngersStade Brestois 29
LE Havre D 0–0 A W 2–1 A
Auxerre W 3–1 A L 1–2 A
Lille L 0–2 H D 1–1 A
Points4 of 9 · 1.33 per game4 of 9 · 1.33 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

2 Angers wins2 draws5 Stade Brestois 29 wins
Goals per game0.78 – 2.00 Over 2.533% Both scored44% Clean sheets22% · 33%
  • 10 Oct 2026Stade Brestois 295–1Angers
  • 17 May 2026Stade Brestois 291–1Angers
  • 28 Sep 2025Angers0–2Stade Brestois 29
  • 9 Mar 2025Stade Brestois 292–0Angers
  • 5 Jan 2025Angers2–0Stade Brestois 29
  • 29 Jan 2023Stade Brestois 294–0Angers

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

AngersStade Brestois 29Forecast
Scored per game 1.291.86
Conceded per game 2.141.43
Match goals 3.433.29
Over 1.5 86%86%
Over 2.5 57%71%
Over 3.5 43%43%
Both teams scored 57%86%
Clean sheets 29%0%
Failed to score 29%14%
Games77
AngersStade Brestois 29Forecast
Scored per game 1.201.50
Conceded per game 2.001.40
Match goals 3.202.90
Over 1.5 90%80%
Over 2.5 50%60%
Over 3.5 40%30%
Both teams scored 70%80%
Clean sheets 20%0%
Failed to score 20%20%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

AngersStade Brestois 29League
Corners
Corners won6.434.86
Corners conceded5.714.00
Match total12.148.869.63
Over 8.586% 6/771% 5/7
Over 9.571% 5/743% 3/7
Over 10.557% 4/729% 2/7
Cards
Cards1.711.29
Opponent cards1.571.71
Match total3.283.003.47
Over 3.543% 3/714% 1/7
Over 4.529% 2/714% 1/7
AngersStade Brestois 29League
Corners
Corners won6.004.70
Corners conceded5.564.60
Match total11.569.309.63
Over 8.589% 8/980% 8/10
Over 9.567% 6/940% 4/10
Over 10.544% 4/930% 3/10
Cards
Cards1.901.00
Opponent cards1.701.40
Match total3.602.403.47
Over 3.550% 5/1010% 1/10
Over 4.540% 4/1010% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Angers7 games · scored 9 · conceded 15
2 3 0-15
3 16-30
2 5 31-45
2 2 46-60
2 61-75
1 2 76-90
Stade Brestois 297 games · scored 13 · conceded 10
3 2 0-15
4 16-30
2 1 31-45
2 3 46-60
1 2 61-75
1 2 76-90
Angers10 games · scored 12 · conceded 20
2 4 0-15
3 16-30
2 6 31-45
3 3 46-60
3 2 61-75
2 2 76-90
Stade Brestois 2910 games · scored 15 · conceded 14
4 3 0-15
4 1 16-30
2 1 31-45
3 4 46-60
1 2 61-75
1 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Ligue 1

View all fixtures →
Angers Stade Brestois 29 May 2216:00 Nice Monaco May 2216:00 Toulouse Auxerre May 2216:00 Lorient Lyon May 2216:00 Estac Troyes Paris Saint Germain May 2216:00 LE Havre Lille May 2216:00 Paris FC Marseille May 2216:00 Lens Rennes May 2216:00 Le Mans Strasbourg May 2216:00