Ligue 1 Gameweek 33 Sat, May 22 · 16:00 Stade de l’Aube, Troyes
Estac Troyes 17th · 4 pts · 7 played
VS— Compare
Paris Saint Germain 2nd · 14 pts · 7 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel142 kmRest days6 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Estac Troyes—%
Draw—%
Paris Saint Germain—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Troyes)

Forecast from 7 May

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Estac Troyes and Paris Saint Germain. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Estac TroyesParis Saint Germain
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
12 Current StrengthIn forecast 89
12 AttackIn forecast 91
19 DefenceIn forecast 83
7 Form indexContext 96
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Estac Troyes

Attack—
Defense risk—

Paris Saint Germain

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Estac TroyesParis Saint Germain
0.71 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00
2.29 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.29
1.03 xGVia Att/Def 2.65
1.44 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.16
-0.32 Goals minus xGContext -0.65
43% Scored inContext 100%
14% Clean sheetsContext 14%
14.29 ShotsContext 20.57
3.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.14
21% On target shareContext 35%
10.43 Shots in the boxContext 11.71
73% Box shareContext 56%
5% ConversionContext 10%
2.33 OffsidesContext 3.20
12.43 Shots allowedContext 10.86
4.71 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.14
3.00 BlocksContext 2.17
2.83 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.00
55% Save rateContext 83%
39% PossessionIn forecast 68%
359 PassesContext 708
287 Accurate passesContext 637
80% Pass accuracyContext 90%
6.52 Team ratingContext 7.03
12.29 FoulsContext 5.71
12.71 Fouls sufferedContext 11.29
1.57 Yellow cardsContext 1.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games
0.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.50
2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30
1.03 xGVia Att/Def 2.37
1.44 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.28
-0.23 Goals minus xGContext +0.13
60% Scored inContext 100%
10% Clean sheetsContext 10%
12.10 ShotsContext 21.50
3.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.80
25% On target shareContext 36%
8.67 Shots in the boxContext 12.50
64% Box shareContext 56%
7% ConversionContext 12%
2.56 OffsidesContext 3.33
13.90 Shots allowedContext 11.90
5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.30
3.10 BlocksContext 3.22
3.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.14
63% Save rateContext 78%
39% PossessionIn forecast 67%
351 PassesContext 702
279 Accurate passesContext 632
79% Pass accuracyContext 90%
6.61 Team ratingContext 7.07
11.10 FoulsContext 7.00
13.30 Fouls sufferedContext 11.20
1.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.00
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Estac Troyes
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,123 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 7 · 0 pts vs 7.5 for an average club · -4.0 vs expected
  • L17 OctH · Lens1–30.6 xPts
  • L11 OctH · Marseille0–20.9 xPts
  • L19 SepA · Angers0–20.9 xPts
  • L13 SepA · Lille0–20.4 xPts
  • L6 SepH · Strasbourg2–61.1 xPts
Paris Saint Germain
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel142 km791 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 96 · 15 pts vs 6.2 for an average club · +4.9 vs expected
  • W17 OctA · Strasbourg3–12.4 xPts
  • W14 OctA · Manchester City4–20.9 xPts
  • W10 OctH · Le Mans3–12.6 xPts
  • W20 SepA · Marseille2–12.0 xPts
  • W13 SepA · Stade Brestois 291–02.1 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Estac Troyes Paris Saint Germain
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match6Ligue 1 2026-2027, 16 May6Ligue 1 2026-2027, 16 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km142 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways1,123 km791 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 41 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one7.27.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Estac Troyes Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Lens (H) 1–3, 17 Oct
33P. Beach(G)
5P. Gozzi 4M. Diaz 6A. Monfray 2L. Maronnier
29D. Karim 8M. Diop
23T. Nkada 17A. Mille 10M. Ifnaoui
20R. Ripart
Paris Saint Germain Last XI · not confirmed
4-3-3 · vs Strasbourg (A) 3–1, 17 Oct
39M. Safonov(G)
12L. Digne 21L. Hernández 6I. Zabarnyi 33W. Zaïre-Emery
4Beraldo 27Dro Fernández 87João Neves
7K. Kvaratskhelia 9Ferran Torres 11M. Akliouche

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Estac Troyes Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Paris Saint Germain Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Estac Troyes · Home 0.25points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
0-1-3
Scored
0.75
Conceded
2.75
Paris Saint Germain · Away 2.20points per game · 5 away games
W-D-L
3-2-0
Scored
2.00
Conceded
1.20

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

OpponentEstac TroyesParis Saint Germain
Marseille L 0–2 H W 2–1 A
Lille L 0–2 A D 2–2 A
Strasbourg L 2–6 H W 3–1 A
Points0 of 9 · 0.00 per game7 of 9 · 2.33 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

0 Estac Troyes wins1 draws3 Paris Saint Germain wins
Goals per game1.75 – 2.75 Over 2.5100% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%
  • 7 May 2023Estac Troyes1–3Paris Saint Germain
  • 29 Oct 2022Paris Saint Germain4–3Estac Troyes
  • 8 May 2022Paris Saint Germain2–2Estac Troyes
  • 7 Aug 2021Estac Troyes1–2Paris Saint Germain

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Estac TroyesParis Saint GermainForecast
Scored per game 0.712.00
Conceded per game 2.291.29
Match goals 3.003.29
Over 1.5 86%86%
Over 2.5 43%86%
Over 3.5 29%57%
Both teams scored 43%86%
Clean sheets 14%14%
Failed to score 57%0%
Games77
Estac TroyesParis Saint GermainForecast
Scored per game 0.712.50
Conceded per game 2.291.40
Match goals 3.003.90
Over 1.5 86%90%
Over 2.5 43%90%
Over 3.5 29%60%
Both teams scored 43%90%
Clean sheets 14%10%
Failed to score 57%0%
Games710

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Estac TroyesParis Saint GermainLeague
Corners
Corners won6.504.75
Corners conceded2.503.25
Match total9.008.009.63
Over 8.550% 3/650% 2/4
Over 9.533% 2/625% 1/4
Over 10.517% 1/60% 0/4
Cards
Cards1.571.00
Opponent cards1.292.43
Match total2.863.433.47
Over 3.543% 3/743% 3/7
Over 4.529% 2/729% 2/7
Estac TroyesParis Saint GermainLeague
Corners
Corners won5.335.57
Corners conceded4.784.14
Match total10.119.719.63
Over 8.567% 6/971% 5/7
Over 9.556% 5/943% 3/7
Over 10.522% 2/929% 2/7
Cards
Cards1.401.00
Opponent cards1.602.30
Match total3.003.303.47
Over 3.550% 5/1040% 4/10
Over 4.520% 2/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Estac Troyes7 games · scored 5 · conceded 16
1 1 0-15
2 1 16-30
1 4 31-45
5 46-60
61-75
1 5 76-90
Paris Saint Germain7 games · scored 14 · conceded 9
1 1 0-15
1 2 16-30
1 1 31-45
2 46-60
5 2 61-75
6 1 76-90
Estac Troyes10 games · scored 8 · conceded 20
2 1 0-15
2 2 16-30
1 5 31-45
6 46-60
2 61-75
1 6 76-90
Paris Saint Germain10 games · scored 25 · conceded 13
3 2 0-15
3 2 16-30
3 1 31-45
2 4 46-60
7 3 61-75
7 1 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Ligue 1

View all fixtures →
Angers Stade Brestois 29 May 2216:00 Nice Monaco May 2216:00 Toulouse Auxerre May 2216:00 Lorient Lyon May 2216:00 Estac Troyes Paris Saint Germain May 2216:00 LE Havre Lille May 2216:00 Paris FC Marseille May 2216:00 Lens Rennes May 2216:00 Le Mans Strasbourg May 2216:00