Antwerp
Attack—
Defense risk—
Antwerp
9th · 23 pts · 18 played
WLWWW
First leg0–0
2–2Full time
Anderlecht
4th · 34 pts · 18 played
WWWLW
Our take
It was too close to call.
Anderlecht were the stronger side on L90 Strength (48 vs 41). Antwerp had 7.2 days of rest, Anderlecht 7.9 and had to travel 42 km.
Away travel42 kmRest days7.2 · 7.9Matches / 14d2 · 1
Antwerp39%
Draw27%
Anderlecht34%
Antwerp39%
Draw27%
Anderlecht34%
Antwerp39%
Draw27%
Anderlecht34%
Antwerp32%
Draw27%
Anderlecht41%
Antwerp39%
Draw27%
Anderlecht34%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Deurne)
No weather data yet
Referee · BelgiumEric Lambrechts
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.34
- Matches 44
Team strength
AntwerpAnderlecht
41
L90 StrengthIn forecast
48
26
Current StrengthIn forecast
43
24
AttackIn forecast
37
19
DefenceIn forecast
52
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAnderlecht
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AntwerpAnderlecht
1.11
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.39
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.11
xGVia Att/Def
1.45
1.23
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.15
+0.00
Goals minus xGContext
-0.06
67%
Scored inContext
78%
22%
Clean sheetsContext
44%
10.78
ShotsContext
14.83
4.06
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.89
38%
On target shareContext
33%
6.53
Shots in the boxContext
8.61
60%
Box shareContext
58%
10%
ConversionContext
9%
2.94
OffsidesContext
2.21
14.33
Shots allowedContext
10.67
4.72
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.28
4.72
BlocksContext
2.67
4.13
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.18
77%
Save rateContext
64%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
363
PassesContext
437
289
Accurate passesContext
356
80%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.94
Team ratingContext
6.86
12.11
FoulsContext
13.39
12.78
Fouls sufferedContext
10.94
2.17
Yellow cardsContext
2.56
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.06
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.26
xGVia Att/Def
1.28
1.01
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.21
-0.16
Goals minus xGContext
-0.08
60%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
11.10
ShotsContext
14.30
4.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
38%
On target shareContext
30%
7.33
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
63%
Box shareContext
57%
10%
ConversionContext
8%
3.00
OffsidesContext
1.63
14.00
Shots allowedContext
10.80
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.40
5.40
BlocksContext
2.30
4.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.44
83%
Save rateContext
67%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
362
PassesContext
427
285
Accurate passesContext
347
79%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.95
Team ratingContext
6.82
12.70
FoulsContext
12.50
11.70
Fouls sufferedContext
11.90
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Antwerp
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km111 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Anderlecht
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel42 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Antwerp |
Anderlecht |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.2Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 14 Dec | 7.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 13 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 42 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 111 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.8 | 5.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Antwerp
Confirmed XI
41Taishi Brandon Nozawa(G)
26R. Bozhinov
25B. Kouyaté
33Z. Van Den Bosch
30C. Scott
16M. Benítez
78Xander Dierickx
24T. Somers
18V. Janssen
7G. Kerk
9M. Al Sahafi
Anderlecht
Confirmed XI
26C. Coosemans(G)
19N. Angulo
5M. N'Diaye
3L. Hey
54K. Sardella
79A. Maamar
13N. Saliba
24E. Llansana
74N. De Cat
11T. Hazard
91A. Bertaccini
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Antwerp
Absences are shown before kick-off
Anderlecht
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Antwerp+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Anderlecht+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Antwerp · Home
1.56points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-2-3
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 1.11
Anderlecht · Away
1.38points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-3
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.25
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Antwerp | Anderlecht |
|---|---|---|
| Gent | W 2–0 AL 1–2 H | W 1–0 H |
| Genk | W 3–0 HD 1–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Club Brugge KV | W 1–0 AL 0–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Dender | L 1–2 H | W 2–0 A |
| RAAL La Louvière | W 3–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| St. Truiden | L 0–1 A | W 2–1 HD 2–2 A |
| Standard Liege | L 0–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Cercle Brugge | D 1–1 H | W 2–0 A |
| Zulte Waregem | L 0–2 A | L 2–3 H |
| KVC Westerlo | L 0–2 A | L 0–4 AW 5–2 H |
| KV Mechelen | W 2–1 H | W 3–1 H |
| Charleroi | D 1–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| OH Leuven | W 3–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Union St. Gilloise | D 1–1 H | W 1–0 HL 0–2 A |
| Points | 22 of 51 · 1.29 per game | 33 of 51 · 1.94 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 Antwerp wins2 draws1 Anderlecht wins
Goals per game0.33 – 0.67
Over 2.50%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets33% · 67%
- 20 Sep 2025Anderlecht0–0Antwerp
- 17 Dec 2023Antwerp1–1Anderlecht
- 6 Aug 2023Anderlecht1–0Antwerp
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Antwerp | Anderlecht | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.11 | 1.39 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.11 | 2.39 | 2.65 |
| Over 1.5 | 72% | 61% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 33% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 11% | 28% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 39% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 44% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 22% | |
| Games | 18 | 18 |
| Antwerp | Anderlecht | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.20 | 2.65 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 40% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Antwerp | Anderlecht | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.78 | 6.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.17 | 3.78 | |
| Match total | 8.95 | 10.00 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 9/18 | 78% 14/18 | |
| Over 9.5 | 28% 5/18 | 61% 11/18 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 4/18 | 44% 8/18 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.28 | 2.72 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.22 | 2.44 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 5.16 | 3.97 |
| Over 3.5 | 61% 11/18 | 72% 13/18 | |
| Over 4.5 | 56% 10/18 | 67% 12/18 | |
| Antwerp | Anderlecht | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.10 | 6.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.10 | 3.70 | |
| Match total | 9.20 | 10.30 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 5.40 | 3.97 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Eric Lambrechts Belgium · 44 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.02league 3.75
Red cards0.14league 0.18
Cards 5+43%league 40%
Fouls23.1league 22.7
Penalties0.34league 0.29
Home wins50%league 42%
Antwerp3 with this referee
Record1-2-0
Cards · opp.1.7 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D20 Sep 25A · Anderlecht0–02
- W21 Jan 24H · Charleroi4–11
- D17 Dec 23H · Anderlecht1–12
Anderlecht7 with this referee
Record4-2-1
Cards · opp.2.6 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W9 Nov 25H · Club Brugge KV1–05
- D20 Sep 25H · Antwerp0–03
- L16 Mar 24H · Kortrijk0–11
- W25 Feb 24A · Club Brugge KV2–14
- W11 Feb 24A · Charleroi3–10
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Antwerp18 games · scored 20 · conceded 18
3
3
0-15
4
3
16-30
3
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
6
4
76-90
Anderlecht18 games · scored 25 · conceded 18
5
2
0-15
3
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
5
4
46-60
7
1
61-75
4
6
76-90
Antwerp10 games · scored 11 · conceded 9
2
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
Anderlecht10 games · scored 12 · conceded 10
4
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
61-75
1
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
