Antwerp
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Antwerp
9th · 23 pts · 18 played
WLWWW
First leg0–0
2–2Full time
Anderlecht
4th · 34 pts · 18 played
WWWLW
Antwerp38.6%fair odds 2.59
Draw27.4%fair odds 3.65
Anderlecht34.0%fair odds 2.94
Expected goals1.37 – 1.28total 2.65
Likeliest score1–113.0%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Anderlecht
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Antwerp ↓ · Anderlecht → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 8.4 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 13.0 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.5 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Antwerp goals, columns Anderlecht goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.0%7.67
- 1–09.1%11.04
- 2–18.5%11.74
- 0–18.4%11.97
- 1–27.9%12.66
- 0–07.7%12.95
- 2–06.7%14.98
- 0–25.7%17.41
- 2–25.4%18.42
- 3–13.9%25.63
Winning margin
6.6%
Antwerp by 3+
fair 15.09
11.5%
Antwerp by 2
fair 8.66
20.5%
Antwerp by 1
fair 4.89
27.4%
Draw
fair 3.65
18.9%
Anderlecht by 1
fair 5.28
9.9%
Anderlecht by 2
fair 10.07
5.1%
Anderlecht by 3+
fair 19.44
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
17%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
13%5+
Antwerp goals
25%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
Anderlecht goals
28%0
36%1
23%2
10%3
4%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Antwerp win | 38.6% | 39.3% | -0.7 pp |
| Draw | 27.4% | 27.2% | +0.2 pp |
| Anderlecht win | 34.0% | 33.5% | +0.5 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 49.4% | 50.1% | -0.7 pp |
| Both teams score | 54.5% | 55.0% | -0.5 pp |
| Expected goals Antwerp | 1.37 | 1.40 | -0.03 |
| Expected goals Anderlecht | 1.28 | 1.28 | -0.00 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Antwerp win38.6%2.59
- Draw27.4%3.65
- Anderlecht win34.0%2.94
- Double chance Antwerp or draw66.0%1.52
- Double chance Antwerp or Anderlecht72.6%1.38
- Double chance Anderlecht or draw61.4%1.63
- Draw no bet Antwerp53.2%1.88
- Draw no bet Anderlecht46.8%2.14
Goals
- Over 0.592.3%1.08
- Over 1.574.9%1.34
- Over 2.549.4%2.02
- Over 3.527.5%3.64
- Over 4.513.0%7.71
- Under 1.525.1%3.98
- Under 2.550.6%1.98
- Under 3.572.5%1.38
Both teams to score
- Yes54.5%1.84
- No45.5%2.20
- Yes and over 2.541.5%2.41
- Antwerp win and yes18.4%5.43
- Draw and yes19.7%5.09
- Anderlecht win and yes16.4%6.09
Team goals
- Antwerp over 0.574.7%1.34
- Antwerp over 1.539.9%2.50
- Antwerp over 2.516.0%6.23
- Anderlecht over 0.572.1%1.39
- Anderlecht over 1.536.4%2.74
- Anderlecht over 2.513.7%7.29
- Antwerp clean sheet27.9%3.58
- Anderlecht clean sheet25.3%3.95
- Antwerp win to nil20.2%4.95
- Anderlecht win to nil17.6%5.69
Handicap
- Antwerp −1.518.2%5.50
- Antwerp −2.56.6%15.09
- Anderlecht +1.581.8%1.22
- Anderlecht +2.593.4%1.07
- Anderlecht −1.515.1%6.63
- Antwerp +1.584.9%1.18
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Belgian Pro League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored150
Favourite won44.7%
Avg chance given to result37.8%
1X2 Brier0.623
Over 2.5 called right53.3%
BTTS called right52.7%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 26 | 38.2% | 34.6% |
| 40–50% | 77 | 44.9% | 33.8% |
| 50–60% | 31 | 54.7% | 61.3% |
| 60–70% | 13 | 64.7% | 84.6% |
| 70–80% | 3 | 74.4% | 66.7% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 112 of 150 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6288 | 0.6295 |
| Avg chance given to result | 37.7% | 38.2% |
| Favourite won | 43.8% | 42.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 112 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 150 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.