Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sat, Jan 16 · 19:45 Bosuilstadion, Deurne
Antwerp 13th · 7 pts · 8 played
VS— Compare
KV Mechelen 14th · 6 pts · 8 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel22 kmRest days20.1 · 20.1Matches / 14d0 · 0
Real contextStrength only
Antwerp—%
Draw—%
KV Mechelen—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Deurne)

Forecast from 1 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Antwerp and KV Mechelen. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

AntwerpKV Mechelen
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
26 Current StrengthIn forecast 23
24 AttackIn forecast 18
19 DefenceIn forecast 23
9 Form indexContext 20
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Antwerp

Attack—
Defense risk—

KV Mechelen

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

AntwerpKV Mechelen
1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.13
2.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.13
1.35 xGVia Att/Def 1.02
1.61 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.42
+0.15 Goals minus xGContext +0.11
75% Scored inContext 38%
13% Clean sheetsContext 13%
14.63 ShotsContext 11.13
5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.57
34% On target shareContext 28%
9.50 Shots in the boxContext 7.88
64% Box shareContext 68%
10% ConversionContext 10%
1.33 OffsidesContext 2.86
16.25 Shots allowedContext 14.50
6.63 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.71
4.38 BlocksContext 3.00
3.88 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.29
59% Save rateContext 58%
48% PossessionIn forecast 47%
393 PassesContext 407
316 Accurate passesContext 317
81% Pass accuracyContext 78%
6.66 Team ratingContext 6.55
14.00 FoulsContext 12.25
9.50 Fouls sufferedContext 13.88
1.88 Yellow cardsContext 1.50
0.13 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games
1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10
2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.20
1.27 xGVia Att/Def 0.88
1.59 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.48
+0.13 Goals minus xGContext +0.22
70% Scored inContext 40%
30% Clean sheetsContext 10%
14.50 ShotsContext 10.90
4.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.33
33% On target shareContext 28%
9.30 Shots in the boxContext 7.40
63% Box shareContext 65%
10% ConversionContext 10%
1.63 OffsidesContext 2.63
17.10 Shots allowedContext 14.50
6.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.56
5.10 BlocksContext 3.40
4.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50
66% Save rateContext 60%
47% PossessionIn forecast 47%
387 PassesContext 400
311 Accurate passesContext 311
81% Pass accuracyContext 78%
6.79 Team ratingContext 6.55
13.20 FoulsContext 10.90
9.60 Fouls sufferedContext 12.80
2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.50
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Antwerp
Rest20.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 9 · 0 pts vs 6.6 for an average club · -4.8 vs expected
  • L11 OctA · KVC Westerlo1–51.0 xPts
  • L20 SepH · Union St. Gilloise0–20.7 xPts
  • L13 SepA · Club Brugge KV1–30.5 xPts
  • L5 SepA · Standard Liege0–11.1 xPts
  • L30 AugH · St. Truiden1–41.6 xPts
KV Mechelen
Rest20.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel22 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 20 · 5 pts vs 8.8 for an average club · -1.2 vs expected
  • W11 OctH · St. Truiden4–31.3 xPts
  • D19 SepA · Lommel United0–00.9 xPts
  • L11 SepH · Anderlecht0–11.1 xPts
  • L5 SepH · KVC Westerlo0–41.7 xPts
  • D29 AugA · RAAL La Louvière2–21.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Antwerp KV Mechelen
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match20.1Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 27 Dec20.1Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 27 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km22 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 0 / 10 / 0 / 1
Next matchdays after this one6.86.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Antwerp Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs KVC Westerlo (A) 1–5, 11 Oct
41Taishi Brandon Nozawa(G)
5D. Foulon 3Álvaro Cortés 20R. Van Helden 17S. Renders
48A. Vermeeren 8M. Benítez
7I. Salah 24T. Somers 14Xander Dierickx
9M. Frey
KV Mechelen Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-2-1 · vs St. Truiden (H) 4–3, 11 Oct
13Nacho Mirás(G)
3José Marsà 44M. Eerdhuijzen 20K. Corbanie
7T. Koudou 30Marco Decherf 6F. Hammar 23S. Michez
9M. van Brederode 14B. Raman
28B. Boersma

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Antwerp Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
KV Mechelen Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Antwerp · Home 1.00points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
1-1-2
Scored
1.75
Conceded
2.75
KV Mechelen · Away 0.50points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
0-2-2
Scored
0.50
Conceded
1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

OpponentAntwerpKV Mechelen
KVC Westerlo L 1–5 A L 0–4 H
Standard Liege L 0–1 A D 3–3 H
St. Truiden L 1–4 H W 4–3 H
Points0 of 9 · 0.00 per game4 of 9 · 1.33 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

1 Antwerp wins1 draws2 KV Mechelen wins
Goals per game0.50 – 1.00 Over 2.525% Both scored25% Clean sheets25% · 75%
  • 8 Feb 2026KV Mechelen2–0Antwerp
  • 24 Aug 2025Antwerp2–1KV Mechelen
  • 17 Feb 2024Antwerp0–1KV Mechelen
  • 30 Sep 2023KV Mechelen0–0Antwerp

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

AntwerpKV MechelenForecast
Scored per game 1.501.13
Conceded per game 2.502.13
Match goals 4.003.25
Over 1.5 88%75%
Over 2.5 75%50%
Over 3.5 50%50%
Both teams scored 63%38%
Clean sheets 13%13%
Failed to score 25%63%
Games88
AntwerpKV MechelenForecast
Scored per game 1.301.10
Conceded per game 2.202.10
Match goals 3.503.20
Over 1.5 80%70%
Over 2.5 60%50%
Over 3.5 40%50%
Both teams scored 60%40%
Clean sheets 10%20%
Failed to score 30%50%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

AntwerpKV MechelenLeague
Corners
Corners won4.634.63
Corners conceded5.504.25
Match total10.138.8810.01
Over 8.550% 4/850% 4/8
Over 9.538% 3/850% 4/8
Over 10.538% 3/838% 3/8
Cards
Cards2.131.50
Opponent cards2.252.13
Match total4.383.633.36
Over 3.563% 5/850% 4/8
Over 4.550% 4/850% 4/8
AntwerpKV MechelenLeague
Corners
Corners won4.604.20
Corners conceded6.104.10
Match total10.708.3010.01
Over 8.560% 6/1040% 4/10
Over 9.550% 5/1040% 4/10
Over 10.550% 5/1030% 3/10
Cards
Cards2.201.50
Opponent cards2.002.10
Match total4.203.603.36
Over 3.560% 6/1050% 5/10
Over 4.550% 5/1040% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Antwerp8 games · scored 12 · conceded 20
2 0-15
3 1 16-30
1 2 31-45
1 5 46-60
2 3 61-75
5 7 76-90
KV Mechelen8 games · scored 9 · conceded 17
1 3 0-15
1 2 16-30
3 6 31-45
1 1 46-60
1 3 61-75
2 2 76-90
Antwerp10 games · scored 14 · conceded 20
2 0-15
3 1 16-30
2 2 31-45
1 5 46-60
3 3 61-75
5 7 76-90
KV Mechelen10 games · scored 11 · conceded 22
1 3 0-15
1 4 16-30
3 7 31-45
2 2 46-60
1 4 61-75
3 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Belgian Pro League

View all fixtures →
SK Beveren Club Brugge KV Jan 1519:45 Lommel United Anderlecht Jan 1615:00 Union St. Gilloise RAAL La Louvière Jan 1617:15 KVC Westerlo Kortrijk Jan 1619:45 Antwerp KV Mechelen Jan 1619:45 St. Truiden Standard Liege Jan 1712:30 Cercle Brugge Genk Jan 1715:00 Charleroi Gent Jan 1717:30 Zulte Waregem OH Leuven Jan 1718:15