Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sun, Jan 17 · 12:30 Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium, St.-Trond
St. Truiden 12th · 8 pts · 8 played
VS— Compare
Standard Liege 9th · 11 pts · 8 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Rest days21 · 21.7Matches / 14d0 · 0
Real contextStrength only
St. Truiden—%
Draw—%
Standard Liege—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (St.-Trond)

Forecast from 2 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for St. Truiden and Standard Liege. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

St. TruidenStandard Liege
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
35 Current StrengthIn forecast 33
37 AttackIn forecast 29
32 DefenceIn forecast 29
11 Form indexContext 30
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

St. Truiden

Attack—
Defense risk—

Standard Liege

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

St. TruidenStandard Liege
1.88 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.63
2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.63
2.01 xGVia Att/Def 1.61
1.75 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.72
-0.13 Goals minus xGContext +0.02
63% Scored inContext 88%
13% Clean sheetsContext 25%
17.00 ShotsContext 13.50
5.14 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.88
27% On target shareContext 36%
11.88 Shots in the boxContext 9.75
68% Box shareContext 69%
11% ConversionContext 12%
1.86 OffsidesContext 2.43
13.63 Shots allowedContext 14.50
4.88 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.38
3.00 BlocksContext 4.29
3.38 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.86
69% Save rateContext 61%
56% PossessionIn forecast 52%
520 PassesContext 459
437 Accurate passesContext 365
84% Pass accuracyContext 79%
6.82 Team ratingContext 6.76
10.38 FoulsContext 9.88
9.63 Fouls sufferedContext 10.88
2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.13
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.13
This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games
1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50
2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60
2.01 xGVia Att/Def 1.58
1.75 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.67
-0.21 Goals minus xGContext -0.08
70% Scored inContext 80%
20% Clean sheetsContext 20%
17.00 ShotsContext 12.70
5.14 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.80
27% On target shareContext 38%
11.88 Shots in the boxContext 9.30
68% Box shareContext 70%
11% ConversionContext 12%
1.86 OffsidesContext 2.33
13.63 Shots allowedContext 15.20
4.88 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.30
3.10 BlocksContext 4.67
3.38 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.78
69% Save rateContext 61%
56% PossessionIn forecast 50%
520 PassesContext 433
437 Accurate passesContext 341
84% Pass accuracyContext 79%
6.82 Team ratingContext 6.76
10.80 FoulsContext 10.10
9.60 Fouls sufferedContext 10.90
2.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.40
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

St. Truiden
Rest21 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 11 · 3 pts vs 8.8 for an average club · -5.4 vs expected
  • L11 OctA · KV Mechelen3–41.5 xPts
  • L20 SepH · KVC Westerlo0–21.9 xPts
  • L12 SepA · SK Beveren0–21.7 xPts
  • W5 SepH · RAAL La Louvière4–02.1 xPts
  • L2 SepH · Union St. Gilloise0–31.3 xPts
Standard Liege
Rest21.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 30 · 6 pts vs 8.4 for an average club · -1.0 vs expected
  • L11 OctH · Charleroi0–11.4 xPts
  • L18 SepA · Gent1–20.9 xPts
  • L12 SepA · KVC Westerlo2–41.4 xPts
  • W5 SepH · Antwerp1–01.7 xPts
  • W29 AugA · OH Leuven2–11.6 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
St. Truiden Standard Liege
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match21Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 27 Dec21.7Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 26 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km—
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 0 / 20 / 0 / 2
Next matchdays after this one6.16.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.

Squad & lineups

St. Truiden Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs KV Mechelen (A) 3–4, 11 Oct
16L. Kokubo(G)
3T. Hata 5S. Taniguchi 4K. Takai 60R. Vanwesemael
8A. Sissako 14R. Merlen
10I. Sebaoui 71R. Araki 38Kaito Matsuzawa
9S. Baždar
Standard Liege Last XI · not confirmed
4-3-3 · vs Charleroi (H) 0–1, 11 Oct
1M. Epolo(G)
3Gustav Mortensen 25I. Hautekiet 20I. Karamoko 13M. Fossey
84R. Touzghar 22A. Trouillet 94C. Nielsen
11A. Abid 10D. Eckert Ayensa 17Bernard Nguene

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
St. Truiden Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Standard Liege Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

St. Truiden · Home 1.00points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
1-1-2
Scored
1.25
Conceded
1.50
Standard Liege · Away 1.00points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
1-1-2
Scored
2.00
Conceded
2.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 5 this season

OpponentSt. TruidenStandard Liege
KV Mechelen L 3–4 A D 3–3 A
KVC Westerlo L 0–2 H L 2–4 A
RAAL La Louvière W 4–0 H W 2–0 H
Antwerp W 4–1 A W 1–0 H
Cercle Brugge D 3–3 A D 2–2 H
Points7 of 15 · 1.40 per game8 of 15 · 1.60 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

3 St. Truiden wins1 draws0 Standard Liege wins
Goals per game1.25 – 0.50 Over 2.525% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 0%
  • 26 Dec 2025Standard Liege1–2St. Truiden
  • 9 Nov 2025St. Truiden1–0Standard Liege
  • 27 Dec 2023Standard Liege1–1St. Truiden
  • 30 Jul 2023St. Truiden1–0Standard Liege

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

St. TruidenStandard LiegeForecast
Scored per game 1.881.63
Conceded per game 2.001.63
Match goals 3.883.25
Over 1.5 100%75%
Over 2.5 63%63%
Over 3.5 50%38%
Both teams scored 50%63%
Clean sheets 13%25%
Failed to score 38%13%
Games88
St. TruidenStandard LiegeForecast
Scored per game 1.801.40
Conceded per game 2.001.40
Match goals 3.802.80
Over 1.5 90%70%
Over 2.5 60%50%
Over 3.5 50%30%
Both teams scored 50%60%
Clean sheets 20%30%
Failed to score 30%20%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

St. TruidenStandard LiegeLeague
Corners
Corners won5.386.00
Corners conceded3.635.00
Match total9.0111.0010.01
Over 8.550% 4/863% 5/8
Over 9.538% 3/850% 4/8
Over 10.525% 2/850% 4/8
Cards
Cards2.001.25
Opponent cards1.251.25
Match total3.252.503.36
Over 3.538% 3/825% 2/8
Over 4.525% 2/80% 0/8
St. TruidenStandard LiegeLeague
Corners
Corners won5.505.50
Corners conceded3.505.40
Match total9.0010.9010.01
Over 8.550% 5/1060% 6/10
Over 9.540% 4/1050% 5/10
Over 10.530% 3/1050% 5/10
Cards
Cards2.201.50
Opponent cards1.301.70
Match total3.503.203.36
Over 3.540% 4/1040% 4/10
Over 4.530% 3/1010% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

St. Truiden8 games · scored 15 · conceded 16
2 0-15
4 16-30
3 3 31-45
3 5 46-60
4 2 61-75
3 2 76-90
Standard Liege8 games · scored 13 · conceded 13
2 1 0-15
1 16-30
2 3 31-45
1 2 46-60
6 1 61-75
1 6 76-90
St. Truiden10 games · scored 18 · conceded 20
2 0-15
6 16-30
4 3 31-45
3 6 46-60
4 2 61-75
5 3 76-90
Standard Liege10 games · scored 15 · conceded 16
2 2 0-15
2 16-30
3 3 31-45
1 2 46-60
6 2 61-75
1 7 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Belgian Pro League

View all fixtures →
SK Beveren Club Brugge KV Jan 1519:45 Lommel United Anderlecht Jan 1615:00 Union St. Gilloise RAAL La Louvière Jan 1617:15 KVC Westerlo Kortrijk Jan 1619:45 Antwerp KV Mechelen Jan 1619:45 St. Truiden Standard Liege Jan 1712:30 Cercle Brugge Genk Jan 1715:00 Charleroi Gent Jan 1717:30 Zulte Waregem OH Leuven Jan 1718:15