Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sun, Dec 27 · 18:15 AFAS Stadion, Malines
KV Mechelen 14th · 6 pts · 8 played
VS— Compare
Zulte Waregem 8th · 11 pts · 8 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel75 kmRest days8.1 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
KV Mechelen—%
Draw—%
Zulte Waregem—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Malines)

Forecast from 12 Dec

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for KV Mechelen and Zulte Waregem. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

KV MechelenZulte Waregem
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
23 Current StrengthIn forecast 30
18 AttackIn forecast 27
23 DefenceIn forecast 31
20 Form indexContext 17
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

KV Mechelen

Attack—
Defense risk—

Zulte Waregem

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

KV MechelenZulte Waregem
1.13 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.25
2.13 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.13
1.02 xGVia Att/Def 1.25
1.42 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.17
+0.11 Goals minus xGContext +0.00
38% Scored inContext 50%
13% Clean sheetsContext 38%
11.13 ShotsContext 12.63
3.57 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.25
28% On target shareContext 34%
7.88 Shots in the boxContext 8.13
68% Box shareContext 65%
10% ConversionContext 10%
2.86 OffsidesContext 2.80
14.50 Shots allowedContext 12.00
5.71 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.88
3.00 BlocksContext 3.13
3.29 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.63
58% Save rateContext 74%
47% PossessionIn forecast 43%
407 PassesContext 376
317 Accurate passesContext 304
78% Pass accuracyContext 81%
6.55 Team ratingContext 6.85
12.25 FoulsContext 11.50
13.88 Fouls sufferedContext 12.88
1.50 Yellow cardsContext 0.88
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.13
This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games
1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50
2.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20
0.88 xGVia Att/Def 1.34
1.48 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.29
+0.22 Goals minus xGContext +0.16
40% Scored inContext 60%
10% Clean sheetsContext 30%
10.90 ShotsContext 13.10
3.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.60
28% On target shareContext 35%
7.40 Shots in the boxContext 8.20
65% Box shareContext 64%
10% ConversionContext 12%
2.63 OffsidesContext 3.00
14.50 Shots allowedContext 11.90
5.56 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00
3.40 BlocksContext 3.11
3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.60
60% Save rateContext 72%
47% PossessionIn forecast 45%
400 PassesContext 385
311 Accurate passesContext 308
78% Pass accuracyContext 80%
6.55 Team ratingContext 6.84
10.90 FoulsContext 11.00
12.80 Fouls sufferedContext 12.80
1.50 Yellow cardsContext 0.90
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

KV Mechelen
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km52 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 20 · 5 pts vs 8.8 for an average club · -1.2 vs expected
  • W11 OctH · St. Truiden4–31.3 xPts
  • D19 SepA · Lommel United0–00.9 xPts
  • L11 SepH · Anderlecht0–11.1 xPts
  • L5 SepH · KVC Westerlo0–41.7 xPts
  • D29 AugA · RAAL La Louvière2–21.3 xPts
Zulte Waregem
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel75 km77 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 17 · 4 pts vs 8.5 for an average club · -3.5 vs expected
  • L10 OctH · Gent0–21.3 xPts
  • L19 SepA · Anderlecht0–31.1 xPts
  • L13 SepH · Charleroi0–11.6 xPts
  • W6 SepA · Kortrijk2–01.8 xPts
  • D30 AugA · KVC Westerlo2–21.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
KV Mechelen Zulte Waregem
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match8.1Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 19 Dec8Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 19 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km75 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways52 km77 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 1 / 20 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one20.121

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

KV Mechelen Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-2-1 · vs St. Truiden (H) 4–3, 11 Oct
13Nacho Mirás(G)
3José Marsà 44M. Eerdhuijzen 20K. Corbanie
7T. Koudou 30Marco Decherf 6F. Hammar 23S. Michez
9M. van Brederode 14B. Raman
28B. Boersma
Zulte Waregem Last XI · not confirmed
4-3-3 · vs Gent (H) 0–2, 10 Oct
13B. Gabriël(G)
55Y. Cappelle 5Jakob Kiilerich 4L. Lemoine 23S. Diakité
11M. Aké 6E. Lofolomo 8T. Claes
20T. Hedl 18A. Ementa 10M. Mbaye

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
KV Mechelen Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Zulte Waregem Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

KV Mechelen · Home 1.00points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
1-1-2
Scored
1.75
Conceded
2.75
Zulte Waregem · Away 1.25points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
1-2-1
Scored
1.00
Conceded
1.25

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

OpponentKV MechelenZulte Waregem
Anderlecht L 0–1 H L 0–3 A
KVC Westerlo L 0–4 H D 2–2 A
Charleroi L 0–2 A L 0–1 H
Gent L 0–2 A L 0–2 H
Points0 of 12 · 0.00 per game1 of 12 · 0.25 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

1 KV Mechelen wins1 draws0 Zulte Waregem wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.00 Over 2.550% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%
  • 28 Feb 2026KV Mechelen2–1Zulte Waregem
  • 26 Jul 2025Zulte Waregem1–1KV Mechelen

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

KV MechelenZulte WaregemForecast
Scored per game 1.131.25
Conceded per game 2.131.13
Match goals 3.252.38
Over 1.5 75%75%
Over 2.5 50%50%
Over 3.5 50%25%
Both teams scored 38%25%
Clean sheets 13%38%
Failed to score 63%50%
Games88
KV MechelenZulte WaregemForecast
Scored per game 1.101.10
Conceded per game 2.101.10
Match goals 3.202.20
Over 1.5 70%70%
Over 2.5 50%40%
Over 3.5 50%20%
Both teams scored 40%20%
Clean sheets 20%40%
Failed to score 50%50%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

KV MechelenZulte WaregemLeague
Corners
Corners won4.634.50
Corners conceded4.255.25
Match total8.889.7510.01
Over 8.550% 4/875% 6/8
Over 9.550% 4/850% 4/8
Over 10.538% 3/838% 3/8
Cards
Cards1.501.00
Opponent cards2.132.25
Match total3.633.253.36
Over 3.550% 4/838% 3/8
Over 4.550% 4/825% 2/8
KV MechelenZulte WaregemLeague
Corners
Corners won4.205.20
Corners conceded4.104.80
Match total8.3010.0010.01
Over 8.540% 4/1080% 8/10
Over 9.540% 4/1060% 6/10
Over 10.530% 3/1050% 5/10
Cards
Cards1.501.00
Opponent cards2.102.30
Match total3.603.303.36
Over 3.550% 5/1040% 4/10
Over 4.540% 4/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

KV Mechelen8 games · scored 9 · conceded 17
1 3 0-15
1 2 16-30
3 6 31-45
1 1 46-60
1 3 61-75
2 2 76-90
Zulte Waregem8 games · scored 10 · conceded 9
2 0-15
2 1 16-30
1 2 31-45
2 3 46-60
1 61-75
4 1 76-90
KV Mechelen10 games · scored 11 · conceded 22
1 3 0-15
1 4 16-30
3 7 31-45
2 2 46-60
1 4 61-75
3 2 76-90
Zulte Waregem10 games · scored 15 · conceded 12
2 0-15
2 3 16-30
3 2 31-45
3 3 46-60
2 1 61-75
5 1 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Belgian Pro League

View all fixtures →
Club Brugge KV Charleroi Dec 2612:30 Kortrijk Cercle Brugge Dec 2615:00 OH Leuven KVC Westerlo Dec 2617:15 Standard Liege Union St. Gilloise Dec 2619:45 RAAL La Louvière SK Beveren Dec 2619:45 Anderlecht St. Truiden Dec 2712:30 Genk Lommel United Dec 2715:00 Gent Antwerp Dec 2717:30 KV Mechelen Zulte Waregem Dec 2718:15