Arouca vs Estoril – 14 Feb 2027

Primeira Liga Gameweek 22 Sun, Feb 14 · 16:00 Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Arouca

Arouca 5th · 14 pts · 8 played WDLDW

VS— Compare

Estoril 18th · 2 pts · 8 played LDLLL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel266 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2

Real contextStrength only

Arouca—%

Draw—%

Estoril—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Arouca)

Forecast from 30 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Defence

Streaks

Streak Estoril 3 Losses in a row Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Losses in a row

Team strength

Arouca

Estoril

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

34 Current StrengthIn forecast 22

28 AttackIn forecast 21

37 DefenceIn forecast 29

45 Form indexContext 10

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Arouca

Attack—

Defense risk—

Estoril

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Arouca

Estoril

1.38 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.50

0.88 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.13 xGVia Att/Def 0.97

1.57 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.41

+0.25 Goals minus xGContext -0.47

75% Scored inContext 50%

50% Clean sheetsContext 13%

10.50 ShotsContext 12.88

3.75 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00

36% On target shareContext 39%

6.25 Shots in the boxContext 7.63

60% Box shareContext 60%

13% ConversionContext 4%

1.83 OffsidesContext 2.00

14.25 Shots allowedContext 13.75

4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.25

3.75 BlocksContext 3.86

3.63 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.83

81% Save rateContext 61%

49% PossessionIn forecast 47%

440 PassesContext 402

372 Accurate passesContext 322

85% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.86 Team ratingContext 6.70

10.38 FoulsContext 10.88

10.38 Fouls sufferedContext 13.38

2.88 Yellow cardsContext 2.13

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games

1.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.60

0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

1.22 xGVia Att/Def 1.02

1.29 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.75

+0.48 Goals minus xGContext -0.42

80% Scored inContext 60%

40% Clean sheetsContext 10%

11.30 ShotsContext 12.70

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.80

35% On target shareContext 38%

6.80 Shots in the boxContext 7.70

60% Box shareContext 61%

15% ConversionContext 5%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.67

13.80 Shots allowedContext 13.50

4.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.30

4.00 BlocksContext 3.78

3.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

79% Save rateContext 58%

50% PossessionIn forecast 48%

439 PassesContext 411

370 Accurate passesContext 333

84% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.92 Team ratingContext 6.69

11.00 FoulsContext 11.00

10.70 Fouls sufferedContext 13.80

2.70 Yellow cardsContext 2.20

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Arouca WDLDW

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km2,396 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

Form 45 · 8 pts vs 8.5 for an average club · +0.9 vs expected

W11 OctH · Estrela1–01.9 xPts
D19 SepA · Sporting CP2–20.4 xPts
L13 SepH · Santa Clara1–21.5 xPts
D7 SepA · Estoril0–01.4 xPts
W29 AugH · Maritimo2–11.9 xPts

Estoril LDLLL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel266 km599 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 10 · 1 pts vs 7.2 for an average club · -4.0 vs expected

L10 OctA · Academico Viseu1–21.0 xPts
L20 SepH · Casa Pia1–21.8 xPts
L14 SepA · SC Braga0–10.7 xPts
D7 SepH · Arouca0–01.4 xPts
L31 AugA · Benfica1–20.2 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Arouca	Estoril
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 7 Feb	7Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 7 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	266 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	2,396 km	599 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	7	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Arouca Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Estrela (H) 1–0, 11 Oct

12I. de Arruabarrena(G)

18O. Lebedenko 3José Fontán 15Javi Sánchez 28Tiago Esgaio

8T. Fukui 6E. van Ee

7N. Djouahra 10Pablo Gozálbez 19A. Trezza

17Barbero

Estoril Last XI · not confirmed

3-4-2-1 · vs Academico Viseu (A) 1–2, 10 Oct

1Joel Robles(G)

5A. Tsoungui 6Xavi Sintes 35S. Amissah

21R. Jurišić 10J. Holsgrove 44M. Robin 2Ricard Sánchez

12João Carvalho 99R. Guitane

7André Lacximicant

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Arouca Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Estoril Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Arouca · Home 2.25points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 3-0-1
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 0.75

Estoril · Away 0.00points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-4
Scored: 0.50
Conceded: 1.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

4 Arouca wins2 draws3 Estoril wins

Goals per game1.78 – 1.89 Over 2.556% Both scored67% Clean sheets22% · 22%

7 Sep 2026Estoril0–0Arouca
6 Apr 2026Arouca3–2Estoril
7 Nov 2025Estoril4–3Arouca
16 Mar 2025Arouca1–1Estoril
26 Oct 2024Estoril4–1Arouca
20 Jan 2024Estoril1–2Arouca

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Arouca	Estoril
Scored per game	1.38	0.50
Conceded per game	0.88	1.50
Match goals	2.25	2.00
Over 1.5	63%	75%
Over 2.5	50%	38%
Over 3.5	25%	0%
Both teams scored	38%	50%
Clean sheets	50%	13%
Failed to score	25%	50%
Games	8	8

	Arouca	Estoril
Scored per game	1.70	0.60
Conceded per game	0.90	1.60
Match goals	2.60	2.20
Over 1.5	70%	80%
Over 2.5	60%	40%
Over 3.5	40%	10%
Both teams scored	50%	60%
Clean sheets	40%	10%
Failed to score	20%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Arouca	Estoril	League
Corners
Corners won	3.13	5.57
Corners conceded	5.38	4.14
Match total	8.51	9.71	8.91
Over 8.5	38% 3/8	71% 5/7
Over 9.5	38% 3/8	57% 4/7
Over 10.5	25% 2/8	43% 3/7
Cards
Cards	3.00	2.38
Opponent cards	3.00	1.38
Match total	6.00	3.76	4.55
Over 3.5	75% 6/8	63% 5/8
Over 4.5	75% 6/8	38% 3/8

	Arouca	Estoril	League
Corners
Corners won	3.20	5.00
Corners conceded	5.40	4.67
Match total	8.60	9.67	8.91
Over 8.5	40% 4/10	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	2.80	2.40
Opponent cards	2.70	1.60
Match total	5.50	4.00	4.55
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.