Famalicao vs Estrela – 14 Feb 2027

Primeira Liga Gameweek 22 Sun, Feb 14 · 16:00 Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, Vila Nova de Famalicão

Famalicao 13th · 7 pts · 8 played DDDWL

VS— Compare

Estrela 10th · 10 pts · 8 played DWDLL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel301 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2

Real contextStrength only

Famalicao—%

Draw—%

Estrela—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Vila Nova de Famalicão)

Forecast from 30 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Famalicao

Estrela

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

38 Current StrengthIn forecast 20

24 AttackIn forecast 24

36 DefenceIn forecast 27

30 Form indexContext 24

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Famalicao

Attack—

Defense risk—

Estrela

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Famalicao

Estrela

1.25 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.75

1.38 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.88

0.76 xGVia Att/Def 1.51

1.44 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.55

+0.49 Goals minus xGContext +0.24

75% Scored inContext 75%

25% Clean sheetsContext 0%

10.00 ShotsContext 12.63

3.25 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.13

33% On target shareContext 33%

4.75 Shots in the boxContext 8.63

47% Box shareContext 68%

13% ConversionContext 14%

1.40 OffsidesContext 1.60

11.88 Shots allowedContext 10.88

3.38 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.75

2.75 BlocksContext 2.13

2.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.88

59% Save rateContext 61%

55% PossessionIn forecast 51%

472 PassesContext 412

405 Accurate passesContext 345

86% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.77 Team ratingContext 6.70

11.63 FoulsContext 10.75

15.25 Fouls sufferedContext 11.75

2.25 Yellow cardsContext 2.38

0.13 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70

0.90 xGVia Att/Def 1.09

1.13 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.75

+0.20 Goals minus xGContext +0.51

70% Scored inContext 70%

40% Clean sheetsContext 10%

10.50 ShotsContext 11.10

3.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.80

31% On target shareContext 34%

5.10 Shots in the boxContext 7.60

48% Box shareContext 69%

11% ConversionContext 14%

1.57 OffsidesContext 1.50

10.60 Shots allowedContext 11.50

2.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.60

2.67 BlocksContext 2.40

1.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.90

62% Save rateContext 63%

55% PossessionIn forecast 48%

465 PassesContext 384

399 Accurate passesContext 317

86% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.81 Team ratingContext 6.70

10.90 FoulsContext 11.00

14.50 Fouls sufferedContext 11.50

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.60

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Famalicao DDDWL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km32 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 30 · 6 pts vs 8.3 for an average club · -1.3 vs expected

L12 OctH · Alverca1–41.8 xPts
W19 SepA · Nacional4–01.7 xPts
D13 SepH · Sporting CP1–10.8 xPts
D5 SepA · Estrela2–21.4 xPts
D30 AugH · GIL Vicente0–01.6 xPts

Estrela DWDLL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel301 km637 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 24 · 5 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · -1.2 vs expected

L11 OctA · Arouca0–10.9 xPts
L20 SepH · Academico Viseu0–21.6 xPts
D14 SepA · Rio Ave3–31.4 xPts
W10 SepH · SC Braga2–11.0 xPts
D5 SepH · Famalicao2–21.4 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Famalicao	Estrela
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 7 Feb	7Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 7 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	301 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	32 km	637 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	7	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Famalicao Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Alverca (H) 1–4, 12 Oct

25L. Carević(G)

28Pedro Bondo 15Víctor Rofino 36M. Mattara 17Rodrigo Pinheiro

21Tamás Szücs 8Marcos Peña

7Sorriso 14M. De Amorim 23Gil Dias

70G. Koutsias

Estrela Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Arouca (A) 0–1, 11 Oct

24Léo Linck(G)

55Rafa Soares 5S. Leković 30Patrick Luan 21M. Scholze

39G. Doue 78Santiago Serra

10I. Stoica 14L. Zvonarek 99A. Marcus

37Leandro Antonetti

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Famalicao Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Estrela Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Famalicao · Home 0.50points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 0-2-2
Scored: 0.75
Conceded: 1.75

Estrela · Away 1.25points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 1-2-1
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent	Famalicao	Estrela
Alverca	L 1–4 H	D 2–2 A
Nacional	W 4–0 A	W 3–2 A
Sporting CP	D 1–1 H	D 2–2 H
Points	4 of 9 · 1.33 per game	5 of 9 · 1.67 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

1 Famalicao wins4 draws2 Estrela wins

Goals per game1.00 – 0.86 Over 2.543% Both scored29% Clean sheets57% · 57%

5 Sep 2026Estrela2–2Famalicao
11 May 2026Estrela0–0Famalicao
27 Dec 2025Famalicao2–3Estrela
25 Jan 2025Famalicao0–0Estrela
19 Aug 2024Estrela0–3Famalicao
16 Mar 2024Famalicao0–0Estrela

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Famalicao	Estrela
Scored per game	1.25	1.75
Conceded per game	1.38	1.88
Match goals	2.63	3.63
Over 1.5	75%	88%
Over 2.5	50%	75%
Over 3.5	38%	63%
Both teams scored	63%	75%
Clean sheets	25%	0%
Failed to score	25%	25%
Games	8	8

	Famalicao	Estrela
Scored per game	1.10	1.60
Conceded per game	1.10	1.70
Match goals	2.20	3.30
Over 1.5	60%	80%
Over 2.5	40%	70%
Over 3.5	30%	60%
Both teams scored	50%	70%
Clean sheets	40%	10%
Failed to score	30%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Famalicao	Estrela	League
Corners
Corners won	5.75	4.86
Corners conceded	3.88	4.71
Match total	9.63	9.57	8.91
Over 8.5	75% 6/8	71% 5/7
Over 9.5	63% 5/8	43% 3/7
Over 10.5	25% 2/8	29% 2/7
Cards
Cards	2.38	2.38
Opponent cards	2.38	2.50
Match total	4.76	4.88	4.55
Over 3.5	75% 6/8	75% 6/8
Over 4.5	63% 5/8	63% 5/8

	Famalicao	Estrela	League
Corners
Corners won	6.20	4.22
Corners conceded	3.90	5.56
Match total	10.10	9.78	8.91
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	2.10	2.70
Opponent cards	2.40	2.20
Match total	4.50	4.90	4.55
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.