Maritimo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel1,198 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Maritimo—%
Draw—%
Arouca—%
Weather (Ilha da Madeira)
Forecast from 23 Jan
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Maritimo and Arouca. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Trend
Maritimo
75%
Both teams scored
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Insight
Arouca
4
Clean sheets
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
Maritimo
−0.36
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.05xG against1.41
-
Insight
Arouca
0.9
Goals conceded per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Maritimo
1.8
Goals conceded per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Defence
-
Insight
Arouca
4
Clean sheets
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
Arouca
0.9
Goals conceded per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Maritimo
1.8
Goals conceded per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Maritimo
−0.36
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.05xG against1.41
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
MaritimoArouca
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
16
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
15
AttackIn forecast
28
20
DefenceIn forecast
37
12
Form indexContext
45
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisArouca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MaritimoArouca
1.13
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.38
1.75
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.88
1.05
xGVia Att/Def
1.13
1.41
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.57
+0.08
Goals minus xGContext
+0.25
88%
Scored inContext
75%
13%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
10.00
ShotsContext
10.50
3.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.75
33%
On target shareContext
36%
6.75
Shots in the boxContext
6.25
65%
Box shareContext
60%
11%
ConversionContext
13%
1.00
OffsidesContext
1.83
14.13
Shots allowedContext
14.25
5.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
3.57
BlocksContext
3.75
3.88
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.63
67%
Save rateContext
81%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
366
PassesContext
440
291
Accurate passesContext
372
80%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.55
Team ratingContext
6.86
15.25
FoulsContext
10.38
12.50
Fouls sufferedContext
10.38
1.63
Yellow cardsContext
2.88
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.05
xGVia Att/Def
1.22
1.41
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.29
+0.05
Goals minus xGContext
+0.48
90%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
11.90
ShotsContext
11.30
3.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
30%
On target shareContext
35%
7.80
Shots in the boxContext
6.80
64%
Box shareContext
60%
9%
ConversionContext
15%
1.00
OffsidesContext
2.00
13.60
Shots allowedContext
13.80
5.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
3.33
BlocksContext
4.00
3.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.40
69%
Save rateContext
79%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
372
PassesContext
439
300
Accurate passesContext
370
81%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.61
Team ratingContext
6.92
16.00
FoulsContext
11.00
12.70
Fouls sufferedContext
10.70
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Maritimo
LLLDL
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km2,392 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 12 · 1 pts vs 6.5 for an average club · -2.6 vs expected
Arouca
WDLDW
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel1,198 km103 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Form 45 · 8 pts vs 8.5 for an average club · +0.9 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Maritimo |
Arouca |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 31 Jan | 7Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 31 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,198 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,392 km | 103 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Maritimo
Last XI · not confirmed
30Fran Vieites(G)
23Paulo Henrique
22G. Szalai
44Romain Correia
2Igor Julião
14R. Guzzo
21Ibrahim Alani
10Martín Tejón
8M. Dominguez
15Tomás Tavares
17Adrián Butzke
Arouca
Last XI · not confirmed
12I. de Arruabarrena(G)
18O. Lebedenko
3José Fontán
15Javi Sánchez
28Tiago Esgaio
8T. Fukui
6E. van Ee
7N. Djouahra
10Pablo Gozálbez
19A. Trezza
17Barbero
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Maritimo
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Arouca
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Maritimo · Home
1.00points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.75
Arouca · Away
1.25points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-1
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Maritimo | Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| FC Porto | L 1–2 H | L 0–2 A |
| Moreirense | L 1–3 A | W 4–0 H |
| Points | 0 of 6 · 0.00 per game | 3 of 6 · 1.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 Maritimo wins1 draws2 Arouca wins
Goals per game0.67 – 1.33
Over 2.533%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets0% · 33%
- 29 Aug 2026Arouca2–1Maritimo
- 8 Apr 2023Arouca1–0Maritimo
- 23 Oct 2022Maritimo1–1Arouca
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Maritimo | Arouca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.13 | 1.38 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.75 | 0.88 | |
| Match goals | 2.88 | 2.25 | |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 63% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 50% | |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 38% | |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 25% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Maritimo | Arouca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.13 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.75 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.88 | 2.60 | |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 60% | |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 50% | |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 20% | |
| Games | 8 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Maritimo | Arouca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.88 | 3.13 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 5.38 | |
| Match total | 7.38 | 8.51 | 8.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 13% 1/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/8 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.63 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.25 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 3.88 | 6.00 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 38% 3/8 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 25% 2/8 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Maritimo | Arouca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.30 | 3.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 5.40 | |
| Match total | 7.90 | 8.60 | 8.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 10% 1/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 5.50 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Maritimo8 games · scored 9 · conceded 14
3
0-15
3
3
16-30
3
31-45
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
3
76-90
Arouca8 games · scored 11 · conceded 7
1
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
46-60
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
Maritimo10 games · scored 11 · conceded 17
4
0-15
3
3
16-30
3
31-45
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
5
5
76-90
Arouca10 games · scored 17 · conceded 9
1
1
0-15
3
3
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
6
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
