Arouca vs Famalicao – 5 Oct 2025

Primeira Liga Gameweek 8 Sun, Oct 5 · 15:30 Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Arouca

Arouca 13th · 8 pts · 7 played DDLWL

1–1Full time

Famalicao 6th · 12 pts · 7 played DWLDD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Famalicao were the stronger side on L90 Strength (37 vs 27). Arouca had 5.8 days of rest, Famalicao 6.8 and had to travel 58 km.

Away travel58 kmRest days5.8 · 6.8Matches / 14d1 · 2

Arouca37%

Draw28%

Famalicao35%

Expected goals 1.29 – 1.26

Arouca37%

Draw27%

Famalicao36%

Expected goals 1.35 – 1.32

Arouca37%

Draw28%

Famalicao35%

Expected goals 1.29 – 1.26

Arouca30%

Draw28%

Famalicao42%

Expected goals 1.15 – 1.41

Arouca37%

Draw27%

Famalicao36%

Expected goals 1.35 – 1.32

Over 2.5 47% Both score 53% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Arouca)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalLuís Godinho

Cards per match 5.2
Penalties per match 0.32
Matches 73

Team strength

Arouca

Famalicao

27 L90 StrengthIn forecast 37

34 Current StrengthIn forecast 38

28 AttackIn forecast 24

37 DefenceIn forecast 36

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Arouca

Attack—

Defense risk—

Famalicao

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Arouca

Famalicao

1.29 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

2.57 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.43

0.59 xGVia Att/Def 1.27

1.81 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.94

+0.70 Goals minus xGContext -0.27

57% Scored inContext 71%

0% Clean sheetsContext 71%

9.29 ShotsContext 12.86

3.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.43

32% On target shareContext 27%

5.43 Shots in the boxContext 9.29

55% Box shareContext 74%

14% ConversionContext 8%

1.50 OffsidesContext 1.80

14.29 Shots allowedContext 10.29

5.29 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.57

3.43 BlocksContext 2.50

2.71 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.14

51% Save rateContext 88%

50% PossessionIn forecast 49%

378 PassesContext 368

313 Accurate passesContext 296

83% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.51 Team ratingContext 6.99

13.86 FoulsContext 18.86

12.86 Fouls sufferedContext 15.86

2.43 Yellow cardsContext 2.86

0.14 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.80

0.72 xGVia Att/Def 1.42

1.58 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.16

+0.68 Goals minus xGContext -0.32

60% Scored inContext 80%

10% Clean sheetsContext 50%

10.10 ShotsContext 12.60

3.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.60

35% On target shareContext 29%

6.00 Shots in the boxContext 8.60

57% Box shareContext 67%

14% ConversionContext 9%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.67

13.60 Shots allowedContext 10.90

5.22 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.70

3.60 BlocksContext 2.67

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.22

57% Save rateContext 81%

52% PossessionIn forecast 50%

390 PassesContext 357

320 Accurate passesContext 288

82% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.66 Team ratingContext 6.96

14.20 FoulsContext 17.70

13.60 Fouls sufferedContext 16.50

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 2.70

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Arouca

Rest5.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Famalicao

Rest6.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel58 km466 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Arouca	Famalicao
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 29 Sep	6.8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 28 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	58 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	466 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	20.2	21

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Arouca Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1João Valido(G)

16Arnau Solà 3José Fontán 5B. Popović 28Tiago Esgaio

8David Simão 21T. Fukui

7N. Djouahra 10Pablo Gozálbez 19A. Trezza

17Barbero

Famalicao Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

25L. Carević(G)

5Rafa Soares 16J. de Haas 3L. Realpe 17Rodrigo Pinheiro

15O. Mamageishvili 6T. van de Looi

7Sorriso 20Gustavo Sá 23Gil Dias

12S. Elisor

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Arouca Absences are shown before kick-off

Famalicao Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Arouca+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Famalicao+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Arouca · Home 1.00points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 1-1-2
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 2.50

Famalicao · Away 2.33points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 2-1-0
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 0.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

Opponent	Arouca	Famalicao
Casa Pia	L 0–2 H	D 1–1 A
Rio Ave	D 3–3 H	D 0–0 H
Sporting CP	L 0–6 A	L 1–2 H
AVS	W 3–1 H	W 1–0 A
Points	4 of 12 · 1.00 per game	5 of 12 · 1.25 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

3 Arouca wins1 draws2 Famalicao wins

Goals per game1.50 – 1.00 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets33% · 33%

5 Apr 2025Arouca1–2Famalicao
9 Nov 2024Famalicao0–0Arouca
23 Feb 2024Arouca3–2Famalicao
22 Sep 2023Famalicao1–0Arouca
3 Apr 2023Famalicao0–1Arouca
10 Oct 2022Arouca4–1Famalicao

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Arouca	Famalicao	Forecast
Scored per game	1.29	1.00
Conceded per game	2.57	0.43
Match goals	3.86	1.43	2.55
Over 1.5	100%	43%
Over 2.5	71%	29%	47%
Over 3.5	57%	0%
Both teams scored	57%	29%	53%
Clean sheets	0%	71%
Failed to score	43%	29%
Games	7	7

	Arouca	Famalicao	Forecast
Scored per game	1.29	1.00
Conceded per game	2.57	0.43
Match goals	3.86	1.43	2.55
Over 1.5	100%	43%
Over 2.5	71%	29%	47%
Over 3.5	57%	0%
Both teams scored	57%	29%	53%
Clean sheets	0%	71%
Failed to score	43%	29%
Games	7	7

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Arouca	Famalicao	League
Corners
Corners won	3.86	5.43
Corners conceded	4.43	4.71
Match total	8.29	10.14	9.28
Over 8.5	43% 3/7	71% 5/7
Over 9.5	29% 2/7	43% 3/7
Over 10.5	29% 2/7	43% 3/7
Cards
Cards	2.71	3.00
Opponent cards	2.86	1.71
Match total	5.57	4.71	5.25
Over 3.5	71% 5/7	71% 5/7
Over 4.5	71% 5/7	57% 4/7

	Arouca	Famalicao	League
Corners
Corners won	3.33	6.60
Corners conceded	4.89	4.30
Match total	8.22	10.90	9.28
Over 8.5	44% 4/9	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	33% 3/9	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	2.50	3.00
Opponent cards	2.70	3.20
Match total	5.20	6.20	5.25
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Luís Godinho Portugal · 73 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.95league 5.12

Red cards0.25league 0.25

Cards 5+60%league 65%

Fouls29.1league 27.7

Penalties0.32league 0.44

Home wins41%league 37%

Arouca6 with this referee

Record4-1-1 Cards · opp.2.8 · 3.0 Pens for · against1 · 1

L1 Dec 24H · Benfica0–22
W22 Sep 24A · Farense1–04
W30 Mar 24H · Farense2–13
W23 Feb 24H · Famalicao3–22
W28 Jan 24H · Vizela5–01

Famalicao7 with this referee

Record3-2-2 Cards · opp.3.1 · 2.6 Pens for · against1 · 1 Reds2

W10 Aug 25H · Santa Clara3–03
W23 Feb 25H · Moreirense2–03
D7 Dec 24H · FC Porto1–12
W3 Nov 24A · AVS3–21
D21 Apr 24H · Portimonense2–23

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.