Arouca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel58 kmRest days14 · 14Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Arouca—%
Draw—%
Famalicao—%
Weather (Arouca)
Forecast from 20 Mar
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Arouca and Famalicao. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Trend
Famalicao
63%
Both teams scored
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Insight
Arouca
4
Clean sheets
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
Famalicao
−0.23
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for0.90xG against1.13
-
Insight
Arouca
0.9
Goals conceded per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Defence
-
Insight
Arouca
4
Clean sheets
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
Arouca
0.9
Goals conceded per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Famalicao
−0.23
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for0.90xG against1.13
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
AroucaFamalicao
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
38
28
AttackIn forecast
24
37
DefenceIn forecast
36
45
Form indexContext
30
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFamalicao
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AroucaFamalicao
1.38
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.25
0.88
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.38
1.13
xGVia Att/Def
0.76
1.57
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.44
+0.25
Goals minus xGContext
+0.49
75%
Scored inContext
75%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
10.50
ShotsContext
10.00
3.75
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.25
36%
On target shareContext
33%
6.25
Shots in the boxContext
4.75
60%
Box shareContext
47%
13%
ConversionContext
13%
1.83
OffsidesContext
1.40
14.25
Shots allowedContext
11.88
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.38
3.75
BlocksContext
2.75
3.63
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
81%
Save rateContext
59%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
440
PassesContext
472
372
Accurate passesContext
405
85%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.77
10.38
FoulsContext
11.63
10.38
Fouls sufferedContext
15.25
2.88
Yellow cardsContext
2.25
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.13
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.22
xGVia Att/Def
0.90
1.29
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.13
+0.48
Goals minus xGContext
+0.20
80%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
11.30
ShotsContext
10.50
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.20
35%
On target shareContext
31%
6.80
Shots in the boxContext
5.10
60%
Box shareContext
48%
15%
ConversionContext
11%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.57
13.80
Shots allowedContext
10.60
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.90
4.00
BlocksContext
2.67
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.80
79%
Save rateContext
62%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
439
PassesContext
465
370
Accurate passesContext
399
84%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.81
11.00
FoulsContext
10.90
10.70
Fouls sufferedContext
14.50
2.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Arouca
WDLDW
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km2,396 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 45 · 8 pts vs 8.5 for an average club · +0.9 vs expected
Famalicao
DDDWL
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel58 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 30 · 6 pts vs 8.3 for an average club · -1.3 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Arouca |
Famalicao |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 21 Mar | 14Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 21 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 58 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,396 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Arouca
Last XI · not confirmed
12I. de Arruabarrena(G)
18O. Lebedenko
3José Fontán
15Javi Sánchez
28Tiago Esgaio
8T. Fukui
6E. van Ee
7N. Djouahra
10Pablo Gozálbez
19A. Trezza
17Barbero
Famalicao
Last XI · not confirmed
25L. Carević(G)
28Pedro Bondo
15Víctor Rofino
36M. Mattara
17Rodrigo Pinheiro
21Tamás Szücs
8Marcos Peña
7Sorriso
14M. De Amorim
23Gil Dias
70G. Koutsias
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Arouca
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Famalicao
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Arouca · Home
2.25points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.75
Famalicao · Away
1.25points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-1
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | Arouca | Famalicao |
|---|---|---|
| Estrela | W 1–0 H | D 2–2 A |
| Sporting CP | D 2–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| Santa Clara | L 1–2 H | L 0–1 A |
| Estoril | D 0–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| Maritimo | W 2–1 H | L 1–2 H |
| Points | 8 of 15 · 1.60 per game | 3 of 15 · 0.60 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
3 Arouca wins2 draws3 Famalicao wins
Goals per game1.25 – 1.00
Over 2.538%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets25% · 38%
- 6 Mar 2026Famalicao1–0Arouca
- 5 Oct 2025Arouca1–1Famalicao
- 5 Apr 2025Arouca1–2Famalicao
- 9 Nov 2024Famalicao0–0Arouca
- 23 Feb 2024Arouca3–2Famalicao
- 22 Sep 2023Famalicao1–0Arouca
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Arouca | Famalicao | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.38 | 1.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.88 | 1.38 | |
| Match goals | 2.25 | 2.63 | |
| Over 1.5 | 63% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 38% | |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 63% | |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 25% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Arouca | Famalicao | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.20 | |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Arouca | Famalicao | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.13 | 5.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.38 | 3.88 | |
| Match total | 8.51 | 9.63 | 8.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 38% 3/8 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 3/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 2.38 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 2.38 | |
| Match total | 6.00 | 4.76 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 6/8 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 75% 6/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Arouca | Famalicao | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.20 | 6.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.40 | 3.90 | |
| Match total | 8.60 | 10.10 | 8.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.80 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 5.50 | 4.50 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Arouca8 games · scored 11 · conceded 7
1
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
46-60
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
Famalicao8 games · scored 10 · conceded 11
4
1
0-15
2
16-30
3
31-45
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
Arouca10 games · scored 17 · conceded 9
1
1
0-15
3
3
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
6
1
76-90
Famalicao10 games · scored 11 · conceded 11
4
1
0-15
2
16-30
3
31-45
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
