Moreirense
Attack—
Defense risk—
Primeira Liga
Gameweek 28 Sun, Apr 4 · 16:00
Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Moreira de Cónegos
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel304 kmRest days14 · 14Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Moreirense—%
Draw—%
Sporting CP—%
Weather (Moreira de Cónegos)
Forecast from 20 Mar
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Moreirense and Sporting CP. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Sporting CP
+0.67
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.71xG against1.04
-
Trend
Sporting CP
70%
Both teams scored
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Insight
Sporting CP
3
Clean sheets
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
Moreirense
−0.85
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for0.53xG against1.38
-
Alert
Moreirense
1.9
Goals conceded per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Attack
-
Insight
Sporting CP
+0.67
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.71xG against1.04
-
Trend
Sporting CP
2.5
Goals scored per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Sporting CP
70%
Both teams scored
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored
Defence
-
Insight
Sporting CP
3
Clean sheets
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
Sporting CP
1.0
Goals conceded per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Moreirense
1.9
Goals conceded per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Moreirense
−0.85
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for0.53xG against1.38
Team strength
MoreirenseSporting CP
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
25
Current StrengthIn forecast
83
17
AttackIn forecast
75
27
DefenceIn forecast
81
23
Form indexContext
83
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSporting CP
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MoreirenseSporting CP
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.50
1.88
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.13
0.51
xGVia Att/Def
1.70
1.46
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.85
+0.49
Goals minus xGContext
+0.80
63%
Scored inContext
100%
13%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
7.88
ShotsContext
12.50
2.75
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.50
35%
On target shareContext
44%
4.25
Shots in the boxContext
8.25
55%
Box shareContext
67%
13%
ConversionContext
20%
—
OffsidesContext
1.71
15.13
Shots allowedContext
9.13
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.14
3.88
BlocksContext
2.14
2.88
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.29
58%
Save rateContext
73%
36%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
324
PassesContext
550
244
Accurate passesContext
488
75%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.48
Team ratingContext
6.96
13.63
FoulsContext
11.50
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
13.38
2.63
Yellow cardsContext
2.25
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.13
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.50
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.53
xGVia Att/Def
1.71
1.38
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.04
+0.27
Goals minus xGContext
+0.79
50%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
8.50
ShotsContext
11.90
2.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.40
33%
On target shareContext
45%
4.50
Shots in the boxContext
7.80
54%
Box shareContext
66%
9%
ConversionContext
21%
1.00
OffsidesContext
1.88
14.20
Shots allowedContext
10.40
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.44
4.00
BlocksContext
2.33
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.78
56%
Save rateContext
81%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
364
PassesContext
521
286
Accurate passesContext
457
79%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.54
Team ratingContext
7.00
12.70
FoulsContext
11.70
12.90
Fouls sufferedContext
12.60
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Moreirense
LLWDL
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km605 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 23 · 4 pts vs 7.4 for an average club · -0.8 vs expected
Sporting CP
WDDWW
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel304 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 83 · 11 pts vs 6.5 for an average club · +1.8 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Moreirense |
Sporting CP |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 21 Mar | 14Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 21 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 304 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 605 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Moreirense
Last XI · not confirmed
13André Ferreira(G)
27Kiko
26Maracás
66G. Dambi Batista
76Dinis Pinto
65Guilherme Liberato
23N. John
19Tiago Andrade
7Manuel Mendonça
10Kiko Bondoso
79L. Vonić
Sporting CP
Last XI · not confirmed
30Kaique(G)
20M. Araújo
25G. Inácio
72Eduardo Quaresma
22Iván Fresneda
77I. Doumbia
5Sergi Altimira
8João Simões
19N. Irankunda
97L. Suárez
10Geny Catamo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Moreirense
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Sporting CP
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Moreirense · Home
1.00points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-2
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 2.00
Sporting CP · Away
2.00points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-0
- Scored
- 2.50
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Moreirense | Sporting CP |
|---|---|---|
| Guimaraes | D 1–1 A | W 3–2 H |
| Arouca | L 0–4 A | D 2–2 H |
| SC Braga | D 2–2 H | W 3–1 A |
| Points | 2 of 9 · 0.67 per game | 7 of 9 · 2.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
1 Moreirense wins0 draws5 Sporting CP wins
Goals per game0.50 – 2.50
Over 2.583%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets0% · 67%
- 21 Feb 2026Moreirense0–3Sporting CP
- 22 Sep 2025Sporting CP3–0Moreirense
- 18 Apr 2025Sporting CP3–1Moreirense
- 5 Dec 2024Moreirense2–1Sporting CP
- 19 Feb 2024Moreirense0–2Sporting CP
- 17 Sep 2023Sporting CP3–0Moreirense
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Moreirense | Sporting CP | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 2.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.88 | 1.13 | |
| Match goals | 2.88 | 3.63 | |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 75% | |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 75% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 75% | |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 38% | 0% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Moreirense | Sporting CP | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 2.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 3.50 | |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 70% | |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 70% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% | |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Moreirense | Sporting CP | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.50 | 3.57 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.88 | 3.29 | |
| Match total | 7.38 | 6.86 | 8.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 25% 2/8 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 2/8 | 0% 0/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/8 | 0% 0/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.75 | 2.38 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.88 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 4.63 | 4.88 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 6/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 4/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Moreirense | Sporting CP | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.30 | 3.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.30 | 3.67 | |
| Match total | 7.60 | 6.89 | 8.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 0% 0/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/10 | 0% 0/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 4.60 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Moreirense8 games · scored 8 · conceded 15
1
1
0-15
4
2
16-30
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
Sporting CP8 games · scored 20 · conceded 9
4
0-15
4
16-30
3
1
31-45
5
46-60
2
3
61-75
2
5
76-90
Moreirense10 games · scored 8 · conceded 17
1
1
0-15
4
3
16-30
3
31-45
1
4
46-60
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
Sporting CP10 games · scored 25 · conceded 10
4
1
0-15
6
16-30
3
1
31-45
6
46-60
4
3
61-75
2
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
