Casa Pia
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Rest days14 · 14Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Casa Pia—%
Draw—%
Alverca—%
Weather (Jamor, Oeiras)
Forecast from 20 Mar
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Casa Pia and Alverca. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Trend
Alverca
75%
Both teams scored
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Streak
Alverca
3
Wins in a row
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Wins in a row -
Trend
Alverca
1.6
Goals scored per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Casa Pia
−0.80
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for0.58xG against1.38
-
Alert
Casa Pia
2.1
Goals conceded per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Attack
-
Trend
Alverca
1.6
Goals scored per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Alverca
75%
Both teams scored
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Streak
Alverca
7
Scoring in a row
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row
Defence
-
Alert
Casa Pia
2.1
Goals conceded per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Casa Pia
−0.80
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for0.58xG against1.38
-
Alert
Alverca
1.5
Goals conceded per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Team strength
Casa PiaAlverca
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
18
Current StrengthIn forecast
30
13
AttackIn forecast
38
25
DefenceIn forecast
42
19
Form indexContext
64
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAlverca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Casa PiaAlverca
0.38
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.63
2.13
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
0.58
xGVia Att/Def
1.44
1.38
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.57
-0.20
Goals minus xGContext
+0.19
25%
Scored inContext
88%
13%
Clean sheetsContext
13%
9.63
ShotsContext
12.00
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.13
27%
On target shareContext
34%
6.14
Shots in the boxContext
7.38
59%
Box shareContext
59%
4%
ConversionContext
14%
1.83
OffsidesContext
2.00
15.25
Shots allowedContext
12.13
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.25
5.71
BlocksContext
3.29
3.43
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
67%
Save rateContext
71%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
343
PassesContext
343
268
Accurate passesContext
273
78%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.44
Team ratingContext
6.73
12.13
FoulsContext
14.63
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
2.13
Yellow cardsContext
2.25
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.13
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
0.58
xGVia Att/Def
1.28
1.38
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.33
-0.08
Goals minus xGContext
+0.12
30%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
9.60
ShotsContext
11.00
3.44
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
32%
On target shareContext
32%
6.22
Shots in the boxContext
6.80
60%
Box shareContext
60%
5%
ConversionContext
13%
1.75
OffsidesContext
2.14
15.50
Shots allowedContext
11.80
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.90
5.67
BlocksContext
3.00
3.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.70
70%
Save rateContext
69%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
327
PassesContext
350
251
Accurate passesContext
281
77%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.56
Team ratingContext
6.73
12.60
FoulsContext
14.40
12.60
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Casa Pia
LDLWL
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 19 · 4 pts vs 8.1 for an average club · -0.8 vs expected
Alverca
DLWWW
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 64 · 10 pts vs 8.5 for an average club · +3.5 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Casa Pia |
Alverca |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 21 Mar | 14Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 21 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | — |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Casa Pia
Last XI · not confirmed
95Ivan Mandić(G)
75Pedro Rosas
43David Sousa
3Kaly
18André Geraldes
80L. Ofori
16Silvi
77B. Pauwels
70João Rêgo
11M. El Boukammiri
9Henrique Araújo
Alverca
Last XI · not confirmed
31Matheus Mendes(G)
12Isaac James
21Sergi Gómez
14S. Baseya
55Francisco Chissumba
6D. Gui
35Rayan Lucas
20Diogo Spencer
22Figueiredo
19D. Camara
10Chiquinho
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Casa Pia
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Alverca
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Casa Pia · Home
0.00points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-4
- Scored
- 0.25
- Conceded
- 3.25
Alverca · Away
1.50points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-2
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.75
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Casa Pia | Alverca |
|---|---|---|
| Santa Clara | L 0–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| FC Porto | L 1–4 H | L 0–2 A |
| Points | 0 of 6 · 0.00 per game | 1 of 6 · 0.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Casa Pia wins0 draws2 Alverca wins
Goals per game0.50 – 2.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 12 Apr 2026Alverca3–1Casa Pia
- 29 Nov 2025Casa Pia0–2Alverca
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Casa Pia | Alverca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.38 | 1.63 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.13 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 3.13 | |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 38% | 63% | |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 75% | |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 13% | |
| Failed to score | 75% | 13% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Casa Pia | Alverca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 2.80 | |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 50% | |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 70% | |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Casa Pia | Alverca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.25 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 10.25 | 10.50 | 8.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.38 | 2.38 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.13 | 1.88 | |
| Match total | 4.51 | 4.26 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 6/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 38% 3/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Casa Pia | Alverca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.10 | 5.63 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.40 | 4.63 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 10.26 | 8.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.80 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 4.90 | 4.20 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Casa Pia8 games · scored 3 · conceded 17
2
0-15
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
5
46-60
1
4
61-75
1
2
76-90
Alverca8 games · scored 13 · conceded 12
2
2
0-15
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
5
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
Casa Pia10 games · scored 5 · conceded 17
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
5
46-60
1
4
61-75
2
2
76-90
Alverca10 games · scored 14 · conceded 14
3
2
0-15
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
6
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
