Arouca vs Guimaraes – 7 Feb 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 21 Sat, Feb 7 · 20:30 Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Arouca

Arouca 14th · 20 pts · 20 played DLWLW

3–2Full time

Guimaraes 9th · 28 pts · 20 played DWLLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Guimaraes were the stronger side on L90 Strength (40 vs 24). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Arouca. Arouca had 7.1 days of rest, Guimaraes 8 and had to travel 57 km.

Away travel57 kmRest days7.1 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 2

Arouca38%

Draw28%

Guimaraes34%

Expected goals 1.33 – 1.22

Arouca33%

Draw27%

Guimaraes40%

Expected goals 1.27 – 1.41

Arouca38%

Draw28%

Guimaraes34%

Expected goals 1.33 – 1.22

Arouca32%

Draw28%

Guimaraes40%

Expected goals 1.18 – 1.37

Arouca39%

Draw27%

Guimaraes34%

Expected goals 1.39 – 1.29

Over 2.5 47% Both score 53% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Arouca)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalMiguel Andre Monteiro Fonseca

Cards per match 5.7
Penalties per match 0.50
Matches 6

Team strength

Arouca

Guimaraes

24 L90 StrengthIn forecast 40

34 Current StrengthIn forecast 27

28 AttackIn forecast 28

37 DefenceIn forecast 39

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Arouca

Attack—

Defense risk—

Guimaraes

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Arouca

Guimaraes

1.15 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.05

2.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.35

0.76 xGVia Att/Def 1.14

1.55 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.21

+0.39 Goals minus xGContext -0.09

65% Scored inContext 60%

20% Clean sheetsContext 35%

10.05 ShotsContext 12.80

3.32 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.45

31% On target shareContext 27%

6.00 Shots in the boxContext 7.05

56% Box shareContext 56%

11% ConversionContext 8%

2.09 OffsidesContext 2.18

13.00 Shots allowedContext 11.90

4.89 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.35

3.89 BlocksContext 3.24

2.78 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.10

56% Save rateContext 71%

49% PossessionIn forecast 49%

396 PassesContext 361

327 Accurate passesContext 294

83% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.60 Team ratingContext 6.79

13.55 FoulsContext 14.60

11.40 Fouls sufferedContext 14.90

2.65 Yellow cardsContext 2.35

0.15 Red cardsContext 0.10

This league season, per match · 20 and 20 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

0.92 xGVia Att/Def 1.27

1.26 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.23

+0.38 Goals minus xGContext -0.07

80% Scored inContext 70%

40% Clean sheetsContext 60%

11.30 ShotsContext 13.10

3.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.20

33% On target shareContext 24%

6.89 Shots in the boxContext 8.10

56% Box shareContext 63%

12% ConversionContext 9%

2.43 OffsidesContext 1.78

12.40 Shots allowedContext 10.70

4.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.40

4.33 BlocksContext 3.00

2.88 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.30

64% Save rateContext 68%

49% PossessionIn forecast 50%

402 PassesContext 365

332 Accurate passesContext 299

83% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.67 Team ratingContext 6.85

12.30 FoulsContext 15.30

10.20 Fouls sufferedContext 14.80

2.70 Yellow cardsContext 2.30

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Arouca

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km126 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Guimaraes

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel57 km637 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Arouca	Guimaraes
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 31 Jan	8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 30 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	57 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	126 km	637 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	0 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	6.8	6.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Arouca Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

12I. de Arruabarrena(G)

25B. Kuipers 3José Fontán 15Javi Sánchez 28Tiago Esgaio

21T. Fukui 22E. van Ee

7N. Djouahra 14Lee Hyun-Ju 19A. Trezza

17Barbero

Guimaraes Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

27Charles(G)

13J. Teixeira Mendes 26R. Abascal 3M. Nóbrega 66T. Strata

23Diogo Sousa 16Beni

19O. Camara 20Samu 48N. Saviolo

7Nélson Oliveira

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Arouca Absences are shown before kick-off

Guimaraes Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Arouca+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Guimaraes+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Arouca · Home 0.90points per game · 10 home games

W-D-L: 2-3-5
Scored: 1.10
Conceded: 2.10

Guimaraes · Away 1.11points per game · 9 away games

W-D-L: 3-1-5
Scored: 0.67
Conceded: 1.44

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Arouca	Guimaraes
Rio Ave	W 3–0 AD 3–3 H	W 1–0 A
Sporting CP	L 1–2 HL 0–6 A	L 1–4 H
AVS	W 1–0 AW 3–1 H	W 4–0 H
Tondela	L 1–3 A	W 1–0 A
GIL Vicente	D 2–2 H	D 0–0 H
Santa Clara	D 0–0 A	W 2–1 H
Alverca	W 1–0 H	L 0–2 A
Estrela	L 1–3 A	W 2–0 A
SC Braga	L 0–4 H	D 1–1 H
Estoril	L 3–4 A	L 2–4 AW 3–2 H
Moreirense	L 0–2 H	W 1–0 HL 0–2 A
Benfica	L 0–5 A	L 0–3 H
Famalicao	D 1–1 H	L 0–2 A
FC Porto	L 0–4 H	L 0–1 HL 0–3 A
Nacional	W 2–1 A	W 2–1 H
Casa Pia	L 0–2 H	D 0–0 A
Points	19 of 57 · 1.00 per game	27 of 57 · 1.42 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

1 Arouca wins3 draws3 Guimaraes wins

Goals per game1.29 – 1.57 Over 2.557% Both scored71% Clean sheets14% · 14%

30 Aug 2025Guimaraes1–1Arouca
18 Jan 2025Guimaraes2–2Arouca
12 Aug 2024Arouca0–1Guimaraes
18 May 2024Arouca1–3Guimaraes
15 Jan 2024Guimaraes2–1Arouca
11 Mar 2023Guimaraes0–2Arouca

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Arouca	Guimaraes	Forecast
Scored per game	1.15	1.05
Conceded per game	2.20	1.35
Match goals	3.35	2.40	2.55
Over 1.5	85%	70%
Over 2.5	65%	40%	47%
Over 3.5	50%	20%
Both teams scored	50%	35%	53%
Clean sheets	20%	35%
Failed to score	35%	40%
Games	20	20

	Arouca	Guimaraes	Forecast
Scored per game	1.30	1.20
Conceded per game	1.80	1.00
Match goals	3.10	2.20	2.55
Over 1.5	70%	40%
Over 2.5	70%	40%	47%
Over 3.5	50%	30%
Both teams scored	50%	30%	53%
Clean sheets	40%	60%
Failed to score	20%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Arouca	Guimaraes	League
Corners
Corners won	4.16	4.20
Corners conceded	5.05	3.50
Match total	9.21	7.70	9.12
Over 8.5	53% 10/19	45% 9/20
Over 9.5	47% 9/19	30% 6/20
Over 10.5	42% 8/19	15% 3/20
Cards
Cards	2.95	2.50
Opponent cards	2.50	3.20
Match total	5.45	5.70	5.26
Over 3.5	80% 16/20	75% 15/20
Over 4.5	60% 12/20	70% 14/20

	Arouca	Guimaraes	League
Corners
Corners won	4.67	4.30
Corners conceded	4.89	3.60
Match total	9.56	7.90	9.12
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	56% 5/9	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	3.00	2.50
Opponent cards	2.50	3.30
Match total	5.50	5.80	5.26
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	80% 8/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Miguel Andre Monteiro Fonseca Portugal · 6 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.67league 4.91

Red cards0.00league 0.29

Cards 5+83%league 58%

Fouls25.5league 27.0

Penalties0.50league 0.46

Home wins17%league 40%

Arouca

No previous matches with this referee.

Guimaraes

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.