Arouca vs Santa Clara – 2 May 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 32 Sat, May 2 · 15:30 Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Arouca

Arouca 11th · 35 pts · 31 played WWLWL

2–2Full time

Santa Clara 13th · 32 pts · 31 played WLLDW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Arouca were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Arouca had 7.8 days of rest, Santa Clara 5.9 and had to travel 1,537 km.

Away travel1,537 kmRest days7.8 · 5.9Matches / 14d2 · 2

Arouca44%

Draw29%

Santa Clara27%

Expected goals 1.35 – 0.99

Arouca46%

Draw27%

Santa Clara28%

Expected goals 1.55 – 1.16

Arouca44%

Draw29%

Santa Clara27%

Expected goals 1.35 – 0.99

Arouca38%

Draw30%

Santa Clara33%

Expected goals 1.21 – 1.11

Arouca45%

Draw28%

Santa Clara27%

Expected goals 1.42 – 1.04

Over 2.5 42% Both score 47% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Arouca)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalRicardo Baixinho

Cards per match 7.1
Penalties per match 0.36
Matches 36

Team strength

Arouca

Santa Clara

27 L90 StrengthIn forecast 24

34 Current StrengthIn forecast 34

28 AttackIn forecast 29

37 DefenceIn forecast 53

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Arouca

Attack—

Defense risk—

Santa Clara

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Arouca

Santa Clara

1.26 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90

1.94 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.23

0.97 xGVia Att/Def 0.99

1.48 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.04

+0.29 Goals minus xGContext -0.09

71% Scored inContext 61%

23% Clean sheetsContext 29%

10.19 ShotsContext 11.13

3.43 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.38

33% On target shareContext 28%

6.20 Shots in the boxContext 6.13

58% Box shareContext 54%

12% ConversionContext 8%

2.11 OffsidesContext 2.13

12.74 Shots allowedContext 9.29

4.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.66

3.82 BlocksContext 2.58

2.76 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.65

59% Save rateContext 68%

50% PossessionIn forecast 48%

401 PassesContext 360

332 Accurate passesContext 289

83% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.63 Team ratingContext 6.74

13.26 FoulsContext 15.03

11.48 Fouls sufferedContext 14.13

2.74 Yellow cardsContext 2.77

0.13 Red cardsContext 0.03

This league season, per match · 31 and 31 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.32 xGVia Att/Def 0.84

1.31 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.04

-0.02 Goals minus xGContext +0.36

80% Scored inContext 80%

30% Clean sheetsContext 40%

10.50 ShotsContext 10.40

3.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.90

32% On target shareContext 28%

6.40 Shots in the boxContext 4.90

60% Box shareContext 48%

12% ConversionContext 12%

2.29 OffsidesContext 1.50

12.20 Shots allowedContext 9.40

3.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.33

3.67 BlocksContext 2.80

2.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.38

67% Save rateContext 66%

51% PossessionIn forecast 50%

412 PassesContext 347

345 Accurate passesContext 274

84% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.67 Team ratingContext 6.72

12.20 FoulsContext 16.60

11.30 Fouls sufferedContext 13.20

3.10 Yellow cardsContext 2.50

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Arouca

Rest7.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km472 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Santa Clara

Rest5.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel1,537 km2,927 km in 14d

Schedule load25%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Arouca	Santa Clara
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 25
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 24 Apr	5.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 26 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,537 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	472 km	2,927 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	9.2	9.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Arouca Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

12I. de Arruabarrena(G)

25B. Kuipers 3José Fontán 15Javi Sánchez 28Tiago Esgaio

22E. van Ee 21T. Fukui

7N. Djouahra 14Lee Hyun-Ju 19A. Trezza

17Barbero

Santa Clara Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Gabriel Batista(G)

5Guilherme Romão 21F. Ferrão Venâncio 23Sidney Lima 2Diogo Calila

35Serginho 65José Tavares

10Gabriel Silva 77Gustavo Klismahn 11Brenner Lucas Gonçalves Santos

39Gonçalo Paciência

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Arouca Absences are shown before kick-off

Santa Clara Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Arouca+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Santa Clara+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Arouca · Home 1.40points per game · 15 home games

W-D-L: 6-3-6
Scored: 1.47
Conceded: 1.80

Santa Clara · Away 0.80points per game · 15 away games

W-D-L: 2-6-7
Scored: 0.87
Conceded: 1.40

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Arouca	Santa Clara
Alverca	L 1–2 AW 1–0 H	D 1–1 AW 2–1 H
Estrela	W 1–0 HL 1–3 A	L 0–1 AD 0–0 H
SC Braga	L 0–1 AL 0–4 H	W 2–1 HL 0–1 A
Estoril	W 3–2 HL 3–4 A	L 2–4 HW 1–0 A
Moreirense	W 1–0 AL 0–2 H	L 0–1 AL 0–1 H
Benfica	L 1–2 HL 0–5 A	L 1–2 HD 1–1 A
Famalicao	L 0–1 AD 1–1 H	L 0–1 HL 0–3 A
FC Porto	L 1–3 AL 0–4 H	L 0–1 H
Nacional	W 3–0 HW 2–1 A	D 3–3 A
Casa Pia	L 2–3 AL 0–2 H	D 0–0 AW 1–0 H
Guimaraes	W 3–2 HD 1–1 A	W 2–0 HL 1–2 A
Rio Ave	W 3–0 AD 3–3 H	L 0–2 HD 1–1 A
Sporting CP	L 1–2 HL 0–6 A	L 2–4 AL 1–2 H
AVS	W 1–0 AW 3–1 H	W 1–0 AW 2–0 H
Tondela	L 1–3 A	D 2–2 AL 1–2 H
GIL Vicente	D 2–2 H	W 1–0 HL 0–1 A
Points	34 of 90 · 1.13 per game	31 of 90 · 1.03 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

3 Arouca wins1 draws1 Santa Clara wins

Goals per game0.80 – 0.60 Over 2.520% Both scored20% Clean sheets60% · 40%

21 Dec 2025Santa Clara0–0Arouca
26 Apr 2025Santa Clara2–0Arouca
15 Dec 2024Arouca1–0Santa Clara
11 Feb 2023Arouca1–0Santa Clara
20 Aug 2022Santa Clara1–2Arouca

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Arouca	Santa Clara	Forecast
Scored per game	1.26	0.90
Conceded per game	1.94	1.23
Match goals	3.19	2.13	2.34
Over 1.5	77%	55%
Over 2.5	65%	35%	42%
Over 3.5	45%	13%
Both teams scored	52%	42%	47%
Clean sheets	23%	29%
Failed to score	29%	39%
Games	31	31

	Arouca	Santa Clara	Forecast
Scored per game	1.30	1.20
Conceded per game	1.40	1.20
Match goals	2.70	2.40	2.34
Over 1.5	60%	70%
Over 2.5	60%	40%	42%
Over 3.5	30%	20%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	47%
Clean sheets	30%	40%
Failed to score	20%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Arouca	Santa Clara	League
Corners
Corners won	3.70	4.41
Corners conceded	5.03	4.56
Match total	8.73	8.97	9.34
Over 8.5	47% 14/30	59% 16/27
Over 9.5	40% 12/30	44% 12/27
Over 10.5	33% 10/30	30% 8/27
Cards
Cards	3.00	2.90
Opponent cards	2.42	2.97
Match total	5.42	5.87	5.08
Over 3.5	77% 24/31	84% 26/31
Over 4.5	61% 19/31	68% 21/31

	Arouca	Santa Clara	League
Corners
Corners won	3.10	4.30
Corners conceded	4.90	4.30
Match total	8.00	8.60	9.34
Over 8.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	3.30	2.60
Opponent cards	2.10	2.70
Match total	5.40	5.30	5.08
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Ricardo Baixinho Portugal · 36 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards6.61league 4.82

Red cards0.50league 0.23

Cards 5+78%league 57%

Fouls31.2league 26.8

Penalties0.36league 0.44

Home wins42%league 41%

Arouca4 with this referee

Record0-0-4 Cards · opp.3.5 · 4.5 Pens for · against0 · 1 Reds1

L14 Sep 25H · Casa Pia0–22
L26 Apr 25A · Santa Clara0–26
L3 Nov 24H · SC Braga1–23
L28 Apr 23A · Rio Ave0–13

Santa Clara3 with this referee

Record2-1-0 Cards · opp.3.7 · 4.3 Pens for · against0 · 0

W26 Apr 25H · Arouca2–04
W24 Aug 24A · Casa Pia2–04
D23 Apr 23H · Chaves1–13

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.