Arouca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
SC Braga were slight favourites.
SC Braga were the stronger side on L90 Strength (60 vs 24). Arouca had 24 days of rest, SC Braga 4 and had to travel 71 km.
Away travel71 kmRest days24 · 4Matches / 14d0 · 1
Arouca22%
Draw25%
SC Braga52%
Arouca23%
Draw25%
SC Braga52%
Arouca22%
Draw25%
SC Braga52%
Arouca17%
Draw23%
SC Braga60%
Arouca23%
Draw25%
SC Braga52%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Arouca)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalMiguel Nogueira
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 55
Team strength
Arouca
SC Braga
24
L90 StrengthIn forecast
60
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
56
28
AttackIn forecast
42
37
DefenceIn forecast
59
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSC Braga
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AroucaSC Braga
1.18
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.73
2.73
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.61
xGVia Att/Def
1.62
1.83
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.95
+0.57
Goals minus xGContext
+0.11
55%
Scored inContext
82%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
27%
8.91
ShotsContext
12.73
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.09
31%
On target shareContext
40%
5.18
Shots in the boxContext
7.90
56%
Box shareContext
61%
13%
ConversionContext
14%
1.80
OffsidesContext
2.29
14.00
Shots allowedContext
8.36
5.45
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.82
3.80
BlocksContext
2.60
2.73
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.11
50%
Save rateContext
68%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
64%
396
PassesContext
584
327
Accurate passesContext
506
83%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.53
Team ratingContext
6.86
14.64
FoulsContext
10.36
12.18
Fouls sufferedContext
13.09
2.45
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.09
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
2.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.55
xGVia Att/Def
1.52
1.91
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.84
+0.45
Goals minus xGContext
+0.18
50%
Scored inContext
90%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
8.90
ShotsContext
11.40
2.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.20
29%
On target shareContext
37%
4.90
Shots in the boxContext
7.44
52%
Box shareContext
63%
11%
ConversionContext
15%
1.80
OffsidesContext
2.14
13.90
Shots allowedContext
8.90
5.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.40
3.67
BlocksContext
3.25
2.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
50%
Save rateContext
73%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
392
PassesContext
515
322
Accurate passesContext
437
82%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.47
Team ratingContext
6.88
14.80
FoulsContext
11.00
11.90
Fouls sufferedContext
13.50
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Arouca
Rest24 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
SC Braga
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel71 km3,240 km in 14d
Schedule load10%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Arouca |
SC Braga |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 10 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 24Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 7 Nov | 4UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 27 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 71 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 3,240 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 1 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.9 | 5 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Arouca
Confirmed XI
58N. Mantl(G)
16Arnau Solà
3José Fontán
5B. Popović
28Tiago Esgaio
21T. Fukui
8David Simão
7N. Djouahra
14Lee Hyun-Ju
78Alex Pinto
23D. Nandin
SC Braga
Confirmed XI
1L. Horníček(G)
4S. Niakaté
6Vitor Carvalho
14G. Lagerbielke
20M. Dorgeles
29Jean-Baptiste Gorby
27F. Grillitsch
2Víctor Gómez
21Ricardo Horta
18Pau Víctor
9A. El Ouazzani
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Arouca
Absences are shown before kick-off
SC Braga
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Arouca+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- SC Braga+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Arouca · Home
0.83points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-3
- Scored
- 1.17
- Conceded
- 2.17
SC Braga · Away
1.20points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-1
- Scored
- 1.60
- Conceded
- 1.20
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 8 this season
| Opponent | Arouca | SC Braga |
|---|---|---|
| Moreirense | L 0–2 H | W 2–1 H |
| FC Porto | L 0–4 H | L 1–2 A |
| Nacional | W 2–1 A | L 0–1 H |
| Casa Pia | L 0–2 H | W 4–0 H |
| Guimaraes | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Rio Ave | D 3–3 H | D 2–2 A |
| Sporting CP | L 0–6 A | D 1–1 A |
| AVS | W 3–1 H | D 2–2 H |
| Points | 8 of 24 · 1.00 per game | 10 of 24 · 1.25 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
1 Arouca wins0 draws5 SC Braga wins
Goals per game0.83 – 2.17
Over 2.567%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets17% · 50%
- 29 Mar 2025SC Braga2–1Arouca
- 3 Nov 2024Arouca1–2SC Braga
- 6 Apr 2024SC Braga0–3Arouca
- 12 Nov 2023Arouca0–1SC Braga
- 19 Feb 2023SC Braga2–0Arouca
- 28 Aug 2022Arouca0–6SC Braga
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Arouca | SC Braga | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.18 | 1.73 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.73 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.91 | 2.73 | 2.71 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 82% | |
| Over 2.5 | 64% | 64% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 55% | 27% | |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 55% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 27% | |
| Failed to score | 45% | 18% | |
| Games | 11 | 11 |
| Arouca | SC Braga | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.90 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.90 | 2.70 | 2.71 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Arouca | SC Braga | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.55 | 5.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.64 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 9.19 | 8.00 | 9.14 |
| Over 8.5 | 55% 6/11 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 45% 5/11 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 36% 4/11 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.73 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.36 | 2.73 | |
| Match total | 5.09 | 4.73 | 5.44 |
| Over 3.5 | 73% 8/11 | 82% 9/11 | |
| Over 4.5 | 64% 7/11 | 64% 7/11 | |
| Arouca | SC Braga | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.50 | 4.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.70 | 3.10 | |
| Match total | 9.20 | 8.00 | 9.14 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.80 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 5.40 | 4.30 | 5.44 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Miguel Nogueira Portugal · 55 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.13league 5.14
Red cards0.27league 0.27
Cards 5+47%league 64%
Fouls25.4league 27.5
Penalties0.22league 0.49
Home wins42%league 36%
Arouca7 with this referee
Record2-5-0
Cards · opp.2.4 · 2.6
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W8 Mar 25A · AVS1–01
- D15 Feb 25A · Sporting CP2–23
- D18 Jan 25A · Guimaraes2–23
- D9 Nov 24A · Famalicao0–03
- D5 May 24H · Estrela0–01
SC Braga3 with this referee
Record2-1-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.7
Pens for · against2 · 0
Reds1
- W17 Aug 25A · Alverca3–01
- D17 May 25H · Benfica1–14
- W5 Jan 23A · Santa Clara4–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Arouca10 games · scored 13 · conceded 25
2
4
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
5
31-45
2
5
46-60
4
4
61-75
2
6
76-90
SC Braga11 games · scored 19 · conceded 11
5
2
0-15
4
3
16-30
2
4
31-45
3
46-60
1
61-75
4
2
76-90
Arouca9 games · scored 10 · conceded 24
1
4
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
5
31-45
1
5
46-60
3
4
61-75
2
5
76-90
SC Braga10 games · scored 17 · conceded 10
3
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
3
31-45
3
2
46-60
4
1
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
