Arsenal vs Bournemouth – 11 Apr 2026

Premier League Gameweek 32 Sat, Apr 11 · 12:30 Emirates Stadium, London

Arsenal 1st · 70 pts · 31 played DWWWW

1–2Full time

Bournemouth 13th · 42 pts · 31 played DDDDD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Arsenal were clear favourites.

Arsenal were the stronger side on L90 Strength (95 vs 73). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Bournemouth. Arsenal had 27.8 days of rest, Bournemouth 21.6 and had to travel 151 km.

Away travel151 kmRest days27.8 · 21.6Matches / 14d0 · 0

Arsenal69%

Draw19%

Bournemouth12%

Expected goals 2.32 – 0.87

Arsenal72%

Draw18%

Bournemouth10%

Expected goals 2.33 – 0.77

Arsenal71%

Draw18%

Bournemouth11%

Expected goals 2.38 – 0.86

Arsenal62%

Draw21%

Bournemouth17%

Expected goals 2.07 – 0.98

Arsenal67%

Draw20%

Bournemouth13%

Expected goals 2.14 – 0.81

Over 2.5 62% Both score 53% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (London)

No weather data yet

RefereeMichael Oliver

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.22
Matches 200

Team strength

Arsenal

Bournemouth

95 L90 StrengthIn forecast 73

94 Current StrengthIn forecast 75

86 AttackIn forecast 83

95 DefenceIn forecast 82

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Arsenal

Attack—

Defense risk—

Bournemouth

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Arsenal

Bournemouth

1.97 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.48

0.71 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.55

1.70 xGVia Att/Def 1.61

0.72 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.50

+0.27 Goals minus xGContext -0.13

90% Scored inContext 77%

48% Clean sheetsContext 29%

14.65 ShotsContext 14.00

4.94 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.77

34% On target shareContext 34%

10.81 Shots in the boxContext 8.53

74% Box shareContext 59%

13% ConversionContext 11%

2.14 OffsidesContext 2.14

7.81 Shots allowedContext 12.68

2.77 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.52

3.04 BlocksContext 4.13

2.17 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.24

77% Save rateContext 69%

57% PossessionIn forecast 50%

475 PassesContext 414

400 Accurate passesContext 330

84% Pass accuracyContext 80%

7.05 Team ratingContext 6.86

10.19 FoulsContext 11.84

10.81 Fouls sufferedContext 10.45

1.29 Yellow cardsContext 2.29

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.03

This league season, per match · 31 and 31 games

1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

0.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.80

1.42 xGVia Att/Def 1.70

0.79 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.50

+0.48 Goals minus xGContext -0.50

100% Scored inContext 70%

50% Clean sheetsContext 40%

13.00 ShotsContext 14.50

4.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.40

38% On target shareContext 30%

8.40 Shots in the boxContext 8.30

68% Box shareContext 58%

15% ConversionContext 8%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.13

8.60 Shots allowedContext 13.30

3.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.20

2.56 BlocksContext 5.00

2.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50

87% Save rateContext 83%

53% PossessionIn forecast 50%

445 PassesContext 420

372 Accurate passesContext 334

84% Pass accuracyContext 80%

7.05 Team ratingContext 7.02

9.80 FoulsContext 9.70

11.10 Fouls sufferedContext 10.20

1.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Arsenal

Rest27.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Bournemouth

Rest21.6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel151 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Arsenal	Bournemouth
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	27.8Premier League 2025-2026, 14 Mar	21.6Premier League 2025-2026, 20 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	151 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 1	0 / 0 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	8.2	7.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Arsenal Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1David Raya(G)

49M. Lewis-Skelly 6Gabriel Magalhães 2W. Saliba 4B. White

41D. Rice 36Martín Zubimendi

11Gabriel Martinelli 29K. Havertz 20C. Madueke

14V. Gyökeres

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Bournemouth Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Đ. Petrović(G)

3A. Truffert 5M. Senesi 23J. Hill 20Álex Jiménez

10R. Christie 8A. Scott

16M. Tavernier 22E. Kroupi 37Rayan

9Evanilson

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Arsenal Scores -0.09 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Bournemouth Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Arsenal-1.5 pp
Draw+0.7 pp
Bournemouth+0.8 pp

Home / Away this season

Arsenal · Home 2.53points per game · 15 home games

W-D-L: 12-2-1
Scored: 2.33
Conceded: 0.60

Bournemouth · Away 1.07points per game · 15 away games

W-D-L: 3-7-5
Scored: 1.53
Conceded: 2.07

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Arsenal	Bournemouth
Everton	W 2–0 HW 1–0 A	W 2–1 AL 0–1 H
Brighton	W 1–0 AW 2–1 H	D 1–1 AW 2–1 H
Chelsea	W 2–1 HD 1–1 A	D 2–2 AD 0–0 H
Tottenham	W 4–1 AW 4–1 H	W 3–2 HW 1–0 A
Wolves	D 2–2 AW 2–1 H	W 2–0 AW 1–0 H
Brentford	D 1–1 AW 2–0 H	D 0–0 HL 1–4 A
Sunderland	W 3–0 HD 2–2 A	D 1–1 HL 2–3 A
Leeds	W 4–0 AW 5–0 H	D 2–2 A
Manchester United	L 2–3 HW 1–0 A	D 2–2 HD 4–4 A
Nottingham Forest	D 0–0 AW 3–0 H	W 2–0 H
Liverpool	D 0–0 HL 0–1 A	W 3–2 HL 2–4 A
Aston Villa	W 4–1 HL 1–2 A	D 1–1 HL 0–4 A
Burnley	W 2–0 A	D 0–0 AD 1–1 H
Crystal Palace	W 1–0 H	D 3–3 A
Fulham	W 1–0 A	W 3–1 H
West Ham	W 2–0 H	D 0–0 AD 2–2 H
Newcastle	W 2–1 A	D 0–0 H
Manchester City	D 1–1 H	L 1–3 A
Points	67 of 90 · 2.23 per game	42 of 90 · 1.40 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

5 Arsenal wins0 draws2 Bournemouth wins

Goals per game2.43 – 1.14 Over 2.586% Both scored43% Clean sheets43% · 14%

3 Jan 2026Bournemouth2–3Arsenal
3 May 2025Arsenal1–2Bournemouth
19 Oct 2024Bournemouth2–0Arsenal
4 May 2024Arsenal3–0Bournemouth
30 Sep 2023Bournemouth0–4Arsenal
4 Mar 2023Arsenal3–2Bournemouth

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Arsenal	Bournemouth	Forecast
Scored per game	1.97	1.48
Conceded per game	0.71	1.55
Match goals	2.68	3.03	3.19
Over 1.5	74%	74%
Over 2.5	52%	55%	62%
Over 3.5	29%	48%
Both teams scored	48%	65%	53%
Clean sheets	48%	29%
Failed to score	10%	23%
Games	31	31

	Arsenal	Bournemouth	Forecast
Scored per game	2.10	1.20
Conceded per game	0.80	0.80
Match goals	2.90	2.00	3.19
Over 1.5	80%	70%
Over 2.5	60%	30%	62%
Over 3.5	40%	20%
Both teams scored	50%	60%	53%
Clean sheets	50%	40%
Failed to score	10%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Arsenal	Bournemouth	League
Corners
Corners won	5.86	5.66
Corners conceded	3.48	5.66
Match total	9.34	11.32	10.05
Over 8.5	52% 15/29	79% 23/29
Over 9.5	48% 14/29	69% 20/29
Over 10.5	45% 13/29	59% 17/29
Cards
Cards	1.29	2.32
Opponent cards	1.90	1.97
Match total	3.19	4.29	3.92
Over 3.5	42% 13/31	65% 20/31
Over 4.5	23% 7/31	45% 14/31

	Arsenal	Bournemouth	League
Corners
Corners won	4.90	5.80
Corners conceded	4.00	6.60
Match total	8.90	12.40	10.05
Over 8.5	40% 4/10	90% 9/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	80% 8/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	70% 7/10
Cards
Cards	1.00	2.00
Opponent cards	2.40	1.70
Match total	3.40	3.70	3.92
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Michael Oliver 200 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.68league 3.78

Red cards0.13league 0.13

Cards 5+35%league 40%

Fouls22.4league 21.4

Penalties0.22league 0.21

Home wins42%league 42%

Arsenal24 with this referee

Record16-4-4 Cards · opp.1.6 · 2.3 Pens for · against2 · 2 Reds4

D17 Jan 26A · Nottingham Forest0–01
W23 Nov 25H · Tottenham4–11
W25 Jan 25A · Wolves1–02
D10 Nov 24A · Chelsea1–12
D22 Sep 24A · Manchester City2–26

Bournemouth9 with this referee

Record5-3-1 Cards · opp.1.9 · 2.2 Pens for · against0 · 2

W31 Jan 26A · Wolves2–03
D6 Dec 25H · Chelsea0–00
D27 Sep 25A · Leeds2–22
W14 Apr 25H · Fulham1–03
L25 Feb 25A · Brighton1–21

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.