AS Roma
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
AS Roma were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. AS Roma had 3 days of rest, AC Milan 7 and had to travel 479 km.
Away travel479 kmRest days3 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
AS Roma43%
Draw27%
AC Milan29%
AS Roma44%
Draw27%
AC Milan29%
AS Roma44%
Draw28%
AC Milan29%
AS Roma36%
Draw28%
AC Milan36%
AS Roma44%
Draw27%
AC Milan30%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Roma)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyAndrea Colombo
- Cards per match 5.0
- Penalties per match 0.13
- Matches 62
Team strength
AS Roma
AC Milan
73
L90 StrengthIn forecast
72
71
Current StrengthIn forecast
65
72
AttackIn forecast
72
75
DefenceIn forecast
69
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAC Milan
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AS RomaAC Milan
1.24
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.62
0.57
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.76
1.31
xGVia Att/Def
1.62
1.07
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.99
-0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.00
71%
Scored inContext
95%
48%
Clean sheetsContext
48%
13.52
ShotsContext
13.81
4.81
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.71
36%
On target shareContext
34%
9.50
Shots in the boxContext
9.52
68%
Box shareContext
68%
9%
ConversionContext
12%
1.94
OffsidesContext
2.11
10.14
Shots allowedContext
10.57
3.62
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.68
2.88
BlocksContext
3.42
3.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.17
87%
Save rateContext
84%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
486
PassesContext
478
406
Accurate passesContext
420
84%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.91
Team ratingContext
7.00
14.29
FoulsContext
9.48
14.38
Fouls sufferedContext
11.24
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.48
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.10
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
1.28
xGVia Att/Def
1.70
1.12
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.90
+0.32
Goals minus xGContext
+0.00
80%
Scored inContext
100%
60%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
13.10
ShotsContext
14.50
4.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.80
35%
On target shareContext
33%
10.11
Shots in the boxContext
10.30
73%
Box shareContext
68%
12%
ConversionContext
12%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.44
10.40
Shots allowedContext
10.50
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.89
3.56
BlocksContext
3.33
3.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.22
91%
Save rateContext
83%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
475
PassesContext
483
394
Accurate passesContext
424
83%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.95
Team ratingContext
7.03
13.70
FoulsContext
9.10
12.60
Fouls sufferedContext
10.60
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
AS Roma
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,051 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
AC Milan
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel479 km78 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| AS Roma |
AC Milan |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 8 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 22 Jan | 7Serie A 2025-2026, 18 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 479 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,051 km | 78 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 6 | 1 / 2 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4 | 9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
AS Roma
Confirmed XI
99M. Svilar(G)
87D. Ghilardi
5O. Ndicka
23G. Mancini
43Wesley
17K. Koné
4B. Cristante
19M. Çelik
18M. Soulé
21P. Dybala
14D. Malen
AC Milan
Confirmed XI
16M. Maignan(G)
5K. De Winter
46M. Gabbia
23O. Tomori
33D. Bartesaghi
12A. Rabiot
14L. Modrić
4S. Ricci
56A. Saelemaekers
10Rafael Leão
18C. Nkunku
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences AS Roma
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
AC Milan
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- AS Roma-0.2 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- AC Milan+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
AS Roma · Home
2.10points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-0-3
- Scored
- 1.30
- Conceded
- 0.50
AC Milan · Away
2.20points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-4-0
- Scored
- 1.70
- Conceded
- 0.70
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | AS Roma | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| Torino | W 2–0 AL 0–1 H | W 3–2 A |
| Sassuolo | W 2–0 HW 1–0 A | D 2–2 H |
| Lecce | W 2–0 A | W 1–0 HW 2–0 A |
| Atalanta | L 0–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Genoa | W 3–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Juventus | L 1–2 A | D 0–0 A |
| Como | W 1–0 H | W 3–1 A |
| Cagliari | L 0–1 A | W 1–0 A |
| Napoli | L 0–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| Cremonese | W 3–1 A | L 1–2 H |
| Udinese | W 2–0 H | W 3–0 A |
| Parma | W 2–1 H | D 2–2 A |
| Inter | L 0–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| Fiorentina | W 2–1 A | D 1–1 AW 2–1 H |
| Verona | W 2–0 H | W 3–0 H |
| Lazio | W 1–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Pisa | W 1–0 A | D 2–2 H |
| Bologna | W 1–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Points | 42 of 60 · 2.10 per game | 43 of 60 · 2.15 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
1 AS Roma wins3 draws5 AC Milan wins
Goals per game1.22 – 1.78
Over 2.567%
Both scored89%
Clean sheets0% · 11%
- 2 Nov 2025AC Milan1–0AS Roma
- 18 May 2025AS Roma3–1AC Milan
- 29 Dec 2024AC Milan1–1AS Roma
- 14 Jan 2024AC Milan3–1AS Roma
- 1 Sep 2023AS Roma1–2AC Milan
- 29 Apr 2023AS Roma1–1AC Milan
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| AS Roma | AC Milan | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.24 | 1.62 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.57 | 0.76 | |
| Match goals | 1.81 | 2.38 | 2.58 |
| Over 1.5 | 48% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 24% | 48% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 24% | |
| Both teams scored | 24% | 52% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 48% | 48% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 5% | |
| Games | 21 | 21 |
| AS Roma | AC Milan | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 0.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.10 | 2.40 | 2.58 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 40% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 50% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| AS Roma | AC Milan | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.81 | 5.05 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.24 | 4.58 | |
| Match total | 8.05 | 9.63 | 8.75 |
| Over 8.5 | 38% 8/21 | 68% 13/19 | |
| Over 9.5 | 24% 5/21 | 47% 9/19 | |
| Over 10.5 | 24% 5/21 | 42% 8/19 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 1.57 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.29 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 4.39 | 3.67 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 14/21 | 52% 11/21 | |
| Over 4.5 | 48% 10/21 | 33% 7/21 | |
| AS Roma | AC Milan | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.60 | 5.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.10 | 4.40 | |
| Match total | 6.70 | 10.00 | 8.75 |
| Over 8.5 | 20% 2/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 10% 1/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 3.50 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Andrea Colombo Italy · 62 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.76league 3.79
Red cards0.19league 0.17
Cards 5+56%league 36%
Fouls24.6league 25.6
Penalties0.13league 0.30
Home wins40%league 38%
AS Roma7 with this referee
Record4-3-0
Cards · opp.2.4 · 3.3
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W5 Oct 25A · Fiorentina2–13
- D6 Apr 25H · Juventus1–11
- D5 May 24H · Juventus1–11
- W23 Dec 23H · Napoli2–07
- W5 Nov 23H · Lecce2–13
AC Milan3 with this referee
Record0-0-3
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.7
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds3
- L29 Oct 24H · Napoli0–20
- L22 Apr 24H · Inter1–25
- L18 Feb 24A · Monza2–42
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
AS Roma21 games · scored 26 · conceded 12
3
3
0-15
6
16-30
3
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
7
1
61-75
5
4
76-90
AC Milan21 games · scored 34 · conceded 16
4
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
7
2
31-45
9
3
46-60
4
3
61-75
8
2
76-90
AS Roma10 games · scored 16 · conceded 5
3
1
0-15
2
16-30
4
1
31-45
46-60
3
1
61-75
4
2
76-90
AC Milan10 games · scored 17 · conceded 7
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
31-45
7
46-60
1
1
61-75
5
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
