AS Roma vs Napoli – 30 Nov 2025

Serie A Gameweek 13 Sun, Nov 30 · 19:45 Stadio Olimpico, Roma

AS Roma 3rd · 27 pts · 12 played WWLWW

0–1Full time

Napoli 4th · 25 pts · 12 played WWDLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

AS Roma were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. AS Roma had 3.1 days of rest, Napoli 8 and had to travel 187 km.

Away travel187 kmRest days3.1 · 8Matches / 14d2 · 1

AS Roma43%

Draw27%

Napoli29%

Expected goals 1.45 – 1.15

AS Roma43%

Draw27%

Napoli30%

Expected goals 1.49 – 1.20

AS Roma43%

Draw28%

Napoli29%

Expected goals 1.43 – 1.14

AS Roma36%

Draw28%

Napoli36%

Expected goals 1.30 – 1.29

AS Roma44%

Draw27%

Napoli30%

Expected goals 1.52 – 1.21

Over 2.5 48% Both score 53% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Roma)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyDavide Massa

Cards per match 4.8
Penalties per match 0.15
Matches 97

Team strength

AS Roma

Napoli

71 L90 StrengthIn forecast 71

71 Current StrengthIn forecast 60

72 AttackIn forecast 61

75 DefenceIn forecast 70

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

AS Roma

Attack—

Defense risk—

Napoli

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

AS Roma

Napoli

1.25 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.58

0.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.92

1.36 xGVia Att/Def 1.38

1.10 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.16

-0.11 Goals minus xGContext +0.20

75% Scored inContext 75%

50% Clean sheetsContext 33%

14.00 ShotsContext 13.67

5.17 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.17

37% On target shareContext 38%

9.33 Shots in the boxContext 8.83

67% Box shareContext 62%

9% ConversionContext 12%

1.90 OffsidesContext 1.83

10.42 Shots allowedContext 11.25

3.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.67

2.30 BlocksContext 3.08

2.92 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.91

83% Save rateContext 68%

59% PossessionIn forecast 58%

484 PassesContext 520

406 Accurate passesContext 450

84% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.92 Team ratingContext 6.85

14.17 FoulsContext 13.17

15.42 Fouls sufferedContext 12.67

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.42

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 12 and 12 games

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

0.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.53 xGVia Att/Def 1.35

1.09 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.18

-0.03 Goals minus xGContext -0.05

80% Scored inContext 60%

30% Clean sheetsContext 40%

14.20 ShotsContext 12.50

5.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.10

37% On target shareContext 33%

9.60 Shots in the boxContext 8.20

67% Box shareContext 62%

11% ConversionContext 10%

2.13 OffsidesContext 1.43

10.70 Shots allowedContext 11.40

3.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.00

2.60 BlocksContext 3.10

2.78 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.22

78% Save rateContext 69%

59% PossessionIn forecast 55%

491 PassesContext 496

418 Accurate passesContext 424

85% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.94 Team ratingContext 6.75

14.20 FoulsContext 13.20

15.80 Fouls sufferedContext 11.00

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

AS Roma

Rest3.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km825 km in 14d

Schedule load8%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Napoli

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel187 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	AS Roma	Napoli
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 8	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.1UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 27 Nov	8Serie A 2025-2026, 22 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	187 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	825 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 5	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	6.8	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

AS Roma Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

99M. Svilar(G)

22Hermoso 5O. Ndicka 23G. Mancini

43Wesley 17K. Koné 4B. Cristante 19M. Çelik

7L. Pellegrini 18M. Soulé

11E. Ferguson

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Napoli Confirmed XI

3-4-3

32V. Milinković-Savić(G)

4A. Buongiorno 13A. Rrahmani 31S. Beukema

17M. Olivera 8S. McTominay 68S. Lobotka 22G. Di Lorenzo

70N. Lang 19R. Højlund 7David Neres

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

AS Roma Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Napoli Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

AS Roma+0.5 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Napoli-0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

AS Roma · Home 2.00points per game · 6 home games

W-D-L: 4-0-2
Scored: 1.17
Conceded: 0.50

Napoli · Away 1.50points per game · 6 away games

W-D-L: 3-0-3
Scored: 1.17
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 7 this season

Opponent	AS Roma	Napoli
AC Milan	L 0–1 A	L 1–2 A
Sassuolo	W 1–0 A	W 2–0 A
Inter	L 0–1 H	W 3–1 H
Fiorentina	W 2–1 A	W 3–1 A
Torino	L 0–1 H	L 0–1 A
Pisa	W 1–0 A	W 3–2 H
Bologna	W 1–0 H	L 0–2 A
Points	12 of 21 · 1.71 per game	12 of 21 · 1.71 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

1 AS Roma wins4 draws3 Napoli wins

Goals per game0.88 – 1.00 Over 2.525% Both scored50% Clean sheets25% · 38%

2 Feb 2025AS Roma1–1Napoli
24 Nov 2024Napoli1–0AS Roma
28 Apr 2024Napoli2–2AS Roma
23 Dec 2023AS Roma2–0Napoli
29 Jan 2023Napoli2–1AS Roma
23 Oct 2022AS Roma0–1Napoli

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	AS Roma	Napoli	Forecast
Scored per game	1.25	1.58
Conceded per game	0.50	0.92
Match goals	1.75	2.50	2.60
Over 1.5	42%	67%
Over 2.5	25%	50%	48%
Over 3.5	8%	33%
Both teams scored	25%	50%	53%
Clean sheets	50%	33%
Failed to score	25%	25%
Games	12	12

	AS Roma	Napoli	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	1.60
Conceded per game	0.80	1.10
Match goals	2.30	2.70	2.60
Over 1.5	70%	70%
Over 2.5	50%	60%	48%
Over 3.5	10%	40%
Both teams scored	50%	60%	53%
Clean sheets	30%	20%
Failed to score	20%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	AS Roma	Napoli	League
Corners
Corners won	5.58	5.00
Corners conceded	3.58	3.36
Match total	9.16	8.36	8.75
Over 8.5	50% 6/12	36% 4/11
Over 9.5	33% 4/12	27% 3/11
Over 10.5	33% 4/12	27% 3/11
Cards
Cards	2.08	1.42
Opponent cards	2.25	1.75
Match total	4.33	3.17	4.03
Over 3.5	58% 7/12	42% 5/12
Over 4.5	50% 6/12	8% 1/12

	AS Roma	Napoli	League
Corners
Corners won	5.80	5.40
Corners conceded	4.10	3.50
Match total	9.90	8.90	8.75
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	2.40	2.00
Opponent cards	2.40	1.80
Match total	4.80	3.80	4.03
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	70% 7/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Davide Massa Italy · 97 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.53league 3.91

Red cards0.24league 0.13

Cards 5+49%league 38%

Fouls25.1league 26.0

Penalties0.15league 0.31

Home wins35%league 38%

AS Roma12 with this referee

Record2-4-6 Cards · opp.3.8 · 3.1 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds3

L18 Oct 25H · Inter0–14
L24 Nov 24A · Napoli0–13
L20 Oct 24H · Inter0–12
L26 May 24A · Empoli1–21
D10 Mar 24A · Fiorentina2–25

Napoli7 with this referee

Record3-3-1 Cards · opp.1.4 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W3 May 25A · Lecce1–00
D7 Apr 25A · Bologna1–13
D15 Feb 25A · Lazio2–22
W24 Nov 24H · AS Roma1–00
L3 Dec 23H · Inter0–32

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.