AS Roma vs Plzen – 23 Oct 2025

UEFA Europa League Matchday 3 Thu, Oct 23 · 20:00 Stadio Olimpico, Roma

AS Roma 19th · 3 pts · 2 played WL

1–2Full time

Plzen 13th · 4 pts · 2 played DW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

AS Roma were slight favourites.

AS Roma were the stronger side on L90 Strength (70 vs 50). Absences weigh more on Plzen. AS Roma had 5 days of rest, Plzen 21.1 and had to travel 867 km.

Away travel867 kmRest days5 · 21.1Matches / 14d1 · 0

AS Roma60%

Draw22%

Plzen18%

Expected goals 1.99 – 1.00

AS Roma56%

Draw24%

Plzen20%

Expected goals 1.82 – 0.98

AS Roma57%

Draw23%

Plzen19%

Expected goals 1.90 – 1.02

AS Roma52%

Draw24%

Plzen23%

Expected goals 1.78 – 1.13

AS Roma59%

Draw23%

Plzen18%

Expected goals 1.91 – 0.97

Over 2.5 58% Both score 55% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Roma)

No weather data yet

Referee · TürkiyeHalil Umut Meler

Cards per match 4.6
Penalties per match 0.16
Matches 19

Team strength

AS Roma

Plzen

70 L90 StrengthIn forecast 50

71 Current StrengthIn forecast 49

72 AttackIn forecast 54

75 DefenceIn forecast 43

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

AS Roma

Attack—

Defense risk—

Plzen

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

AS Roma

Plzen

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.50

1.49 xGVia Att/Def 1.38

0.95 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.60

-0.49 Goals minus xGContext +0.62

50% Scored inContext 100%

0% Clean sheetsContext 50%

15.50 ShotsContext 11.50

5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00

32% On target shareContext 44%

9.50 Shots in the boxContext 8.00

59% Box shareContext 65%

7% ConversionContext 17%

— OffsidesContext —

7.50 Shots allowedContext 9.00

3.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 1.50

1.50 BlocksContext 3.00

2.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.00

57% Save rateContext 67%

54% PossessionIn forecast 52%

509 PassesContext 384

420 Accurate passesContext 323

83% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.71 Team ratingContext 7.05

19.00 FoulsContext 14.50

11.00 Fouls sufferedContext 18.00

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.50

This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

0.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

1.38 xGVia Att/Def 1.36

0.80 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.82

-0.28 Goals minus xGContext +0.04

70% Scored inContext 70%

50% Clean sheetsContext 20%

13.80 ShotsContext 15.78

4.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.00

35% On target shareContext 38%

9.00 Shots in the boxContext 11.11

65% Box shareContext 70%

8% ConversionContext 10%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.88

9.60 Shots allowedContext 10.89

3.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.78

2.00 BlocksContext 3.22

2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.78

81% Save rateContext 64%

58% PossessionIn forecast 51%

490 PassesContext 400

411 Accurate passesContext 317

84% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.91 Team ratingContext 7.09

15.50 FoulsContext 12.89

15.80 Fouls sufferedContext 13.89

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

AS Roma

Rest5 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Plzen

Rest21.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel867 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	AS Roma	Plzen
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5Serie A 2025-2026, 18 Oct	21.1UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 2 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	867 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 4	0 / 0 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	2.8	14

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

AS Roma Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

99M. Svilar(G)

22Hermoso 23G. Mancini 24J. Ziółkowski

43Wesley 17K. Koné 8N. El Aynaoui 19M. Çelik

18M. Soulé 21P. Dybala

9A. Dovbyk

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Plzen Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

23M. Jedlička(G)

19C. Souaré 21V. Jemelka 40S. Dweh 22J. Paluska

5K. Spáčil

80P. Adu 18T. Ladra 6L. Červ 99Amar Memić

17R. Durosinmi

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

AS Roma Absences are shown before kick-off

Plzen Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.10 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

AS Roma+2.4 pp
Draw-1.0 pp
Plzen-1.4 pp

Home / Away this season

AS Roma · Home 0.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 1.00

Plzen · Away 1.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 0-1-0
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	AS Roma	Plzen	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	2.00
Conceded per game	1.00	0.50
Match goals	2.00	2.50	3.00
Over 1.5	50%	100%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	58%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	55%
Clean sheets	0%	50%
Failed to score	50%	0%
Games	2	2

	AS Roma	Plzen	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	2.00
Conceded per game	0.56	0.50
Match goals	1.56	2.50	3.00
Over 1.5	33%	100%
Over 2.5	22%	50%	58%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	22%	50%	55%
Clean sheets	44%	50%
Failed to score	33%	0%
Games	9	2

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	AS Roma	Plzen	League
Corners
Corners won	5.50	3.00
Corners conceded	3.00	4.50
Match total	8.50	7.50	8.98
Over 8.5	50% 1/2	50% 1/2
Over 9.5	0% 0/2	0% 0/2
Over 10.5	0% 0/2	0% 0/2
Cards
Cards	2.50	2.50
Opponent cards	2.00	4.50
Match total	4.50	7.00	4.20
Over 3.5	100% 2/2	100% 2/2
Over 4.5	50% 1/2	100% 2/2

	AS Roma	Plzen	League
Corners
Corners won	4.90	5.78
Corners conceded	2.90	5.11
Match total	7.80	10.89	8.98
Over 8.5	40% 4/10	89% 8/9
Over 9.5	10% 1/10	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	10% 1/10	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	1.80	1.70
Opponent cards	2.20	2.60
Match total	4.00	4.30	4.20
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Halil Umut Meler Türkiye · 19 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.47league 4.09

Red cards0.16league 0.11

Cards 5+53%league 39%

Fouls24.5league 25.2

Penalties0.16league 0.36

Home wins32%league 45%

AS Roma

No previous matches with this referee.

Plzen

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.