AS Roma
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
AS Roma67.5%fair odds 1.48
Draw20.6%fair odds 4.86
Udinese11.9%fair odds 8.41
Expected goals2.06 – 0.74total 2.80
Likeliest score2–012.9%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Udinese
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| AS Roma ↓ · Udinese → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 9.8 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12.9 | 9.6 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8.8 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are AS Roma goals, columns Udinese goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–012.9%7.76
- 1–012.0%8.30
- 1–19.8%10.22
- 2–19.6%10.47
- 3–08.8%11.32
- 0–06.6%15.17
- 3–16.5%15.27
- 4–04.5%22.02
- 0–14.0%24.83
- 2–23.5%28.26
Winning margin
22.4%
AS Roma by 3+
fair 4.47
20.8%
AS Roma by 2
fair 4.80
24.4%
AS Roma by 1
fair 4.11
20.6%
Draw
fair 4.86
8.5%
Udinese by 1
fair 11.82
2.7%
Udinese by 2
fair 36.98
0.7%
Udinese by 3+
fair 139.49
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
15%5+
AS Roma goals
13%0
26%1
27%2
19%3
15%4+
Udinese goals
48%0
35%1
13%2
3%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 67.5% | 68.4% | -0.9 pp |
| Draw | 20.6% | 19.6% | +1.0 pp |
| Udinese win | 11.9% | 12.0% | -0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 53.0% | 57.3% | -4.3 pp |
| Both teams score | 46.1% | 49.5% | -3.4 pp |
| Expected goals AS Roma | 2.06 | 2.18 | -0.12 |
| Expected goals Udinese | 0.74 | 0.80 | -0.06 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- AS Roma win67.5%1.48
- Draw20.6%4.86
- Udinese win11.9%8.41
- Double chance AS Roma or draw88.1%1.13
- Double chance AS Roma or Udinese79.4%1.26
- Double chance Udinese or draw32.5%3.08
- Draw no bet AS Roma85.0%1.18
- Draw no bet Udinese15.0%6.68
Goals
- Over 0.593.4%1.07
- Over 1.577.3%1.29
- Over 2.553.0%1.89
- Over 3.530.7%3.25
- Over 4.515.2%6.58
- Under 1.522.7%4.41
- Under 2.547.0%2.13
- Under 3.569.3%1.44
Both teams to score
- Yes46.1%2.17
- No53.9%1.86
- Yes and over 2.536.3%2.75
- AS Roma win and yes26.5%3.78
- Draw and yes14.0%7.15
- Udinese win and yes5.7%17.60
Team goals
- AS Roma over 0.587.2%1.15
- AS Roma over 1.560.9%1.64
- AS Roma over 2.533.8%2.95
- Udinese over 0.552.3%1.91
- Udinese over 1.517.0%5.88
- Udinese over 2.53.9%25.43
- AS Roma clean sheet47.7%2.10
- Udinese clean sheet12.8%7.82
- AS Roma win to nil41.1%2.43
- Udinese win to nil6.2%16.12
Handicap
- AS Roma −1.543.2%2.32
- AS Roma −2.522.4%4.47
- Udinese +1.556.8%1.76
- Udinese +2.577.6%1.29
- Udinese −1.53.4%29.23
- AS Roma +1.596.6%1.04
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Serie A 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored108
Favourite won45.4%
Avg chance given to result38.7%
1X2 Brier0.641
Over 2.5 called right59.3%
BTTS called right47.2%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 16 | 37.8% | 50.0% |
| 40–50% | 36 | 44.2% | 36.1% |
| 50–60% | 25 | 54.2% | 32.0% |
| 60–70% | 17 | 63.8% | 64.7% |
| 70–80% | 9 | 73.0% | 66.7% |
| 80%+ | 5 | 81.9% | 60.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 87 of 108 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6403 | 0.6192 |
| Avg chance given to result | 38.3% | 38.9% |
| Favourite won | 43.7% | 43.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 87 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✗Bologna 2–0 Napoli32·28·41
- ✗Genoa 2–2 Fiorentina31·28·41
- ✗Atalanta 0–3 Sassuolo71·19·10
- ✗Parma 2–2 AC Milan21·26·53
- ✗Juventus 0–0 Torino57·24·18
- ✗Como 0–0 Cagliari58·24·18
- ✗Lecce 0–0 Verona45·29·26
- ✓Pisa 1–0 Cremonese38·29·33
- ✓Lazio 2–0 Cagliari63·22·14
- ✗Sassuolo 1–2 Genoa40·29·31
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 108 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.