AS Roma vs Udinese – 9 Nov 2025

Serie A Gameweek 11 Sun, Nov 9 · 17:00 Stadio Olimpico, Roma

AS Roma 5th · 21 pts · 10 played WLWWL

2–0Full time

Udinese 10th · 15 pts · 10 played DDWLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

AS Roma were clear favourites.

AS Roma were the stronger side on L90 Strength (69 vs 30). Absences weigh more on Udinese. AS Roma had 2.9 days of rest, Udinese 8.1 and had to travel 468 km.

Away travel468 kmRest days2.9 · 8.1Matches / 14d3 · 2

AS Roma68%

Draw21%

Udinese12%

Expected goals 2.06 – 0.74

AS Roma68%

Draw20%

Udinese12%

Expected goals 2.17 – 0.82

AS Roma67%

Draw21%

Udinese12%

Expected goals 2.05 – 0.76

AS Roma61%

Draw23%

Udinese16%

Expected goals 1.83 – 0.83

AS Roma68%

Draw20%

Udinese12%

Expected goals 2.18 – 0.80

Over 2.5 53% Both score 46% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Roma)

No weather data yet

RefereeGiuseppe Collu

Cards per match 4.1
Penalties per match 0.20
Matches 15

Team strength

AS Roma

Udinese

69 L90 StrengthIn forecast 30

71 Current StrengthIn forecast 32

72 AttackIn forecast 22

75 DefenceIn forecast 18

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

AS Roma

Attack—

Defense risk—

Udinese

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

AS Roma

Udinese

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

0.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.29 xGVia Att/Def 0.98

1.13 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.08

-0.29 Goals minus xGContext +0.22

70% Scored inContext 90%

50% Clean sheetsContext 20%

14.30 ShotsContext 11.30

5.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.70

36% On target shareContext 33%

9.50 Shots in the boxContext 6.22

67% Box shareContext 53%

7% ConversionContext 11%

1.88 OffsidesContext 1.67

10.60 Shots allowedContext 11.90

3.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.44

1.88 BlocksContext 2.80

2.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.89

82% Save rateContext 65%

60% PossessionIn forecast 47%

489 PassesContext 362

412 Accurate passesContext 298

84% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.90 Team ratingContext 6.83

14.30 FoulsContext 12.50

15.90 Fouls sufferedContext 11.80

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 2.30

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 10 and 10 games

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

0.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.51 xGVia Att/Def 0.98

1.14 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.08

-0.31 Goals minus xGContext +0.22

70% Scored inContext 90%

30% Clean sheetsContext 20%

14.70 ShotsContext 11.30

5.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.70

35% On target shareContext 33%

9.70 Shots in the boxContext 6.22

65% Box shareContext 53%

8% ConversionContext 11%

2.33 OffsidesContext 1.67

10.30 Shots allowedContext 11.90

3.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.44

2.00 BlocksContext 2.80

2.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.89

75% Save rateContext 65%

59% PossessionIn forecast 47%

500 PassesContext 362

421 Accurate passesContext 298

84% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.88 Team ratingContext 6.83

15.20 FoulsContext 12.50

15.30 Fouls sufferedContext 11.80

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 2.30

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

AS Roma

Rest2.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km4,894 km in 14d

Schedule load33%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Udinese

Rest8.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel468 km892 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	AS Roma	Udinese
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 33	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	2.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 6 Nov	8.1Serie A 2025-2026, 1 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	468 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	4,894 km	892 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	2 / 3 / 6	0 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	13.9	12.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

AS Roma Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

99M. Svilar(G)

22Hermoso 5O. Ndicka 23G. Mancini

43Wesley 17K. Koné 4B. Cristante 19M. Çelik

7L. Pellegrini 18M. Soulé

9A. Dovbyk

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Udinese Confirmed XI

3-5-2

40M. Okoye(G)

28O. Solet 27C. Kabasele 13N. Bertola

11H. Kamara 14A. Atta 8J. Karlström 32J. Ekkelenkamp 59A. Zanoli

18A. Buksa 10N. Zaniolo

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

AS Roma Scores -0.03 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Udinese Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

AS Roma+0.7 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Udinese-0.5 pp

Home / Away this season

AS Roma · Home 1.80points per game · 5 home games

W-D-L: 3-0-2
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 0.60

Udinese · Away 1.40points per game · 5 away games

W-D-L: 2-1-2
Scored: 1.20
Conceded: 1.60

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 5 this season

Opponent	AS Roma	Udinese
AC Milan	L 0–1 A	L 0–3 H
Sassuolo	W 1–0 A	L 1–3 A
Inter	L 0–1 H	W 2–1 A
Verona	W 2–0 H	D 1–1 H
Pisa	W 1–0 A	W 1–0 A
Points	9 of 15 · 1.80 per game	7 of 15 · 1.40 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

6 AS Roma wins1 draws1 Udinese wins

Goals per game1.88 – 1.00 Over 2.575% Both scored50% Clean sheets38% · 13%

26 Jan 2025Udinese1–2AS Roma
22 Sep 2024AS Roma3–0Udinese
25 Apr 2024Udinese1–2AS Roma
26 Nov 2023AS Roma3–1Udinese
16 Apr 2023AS Roma3–0Udinese
4 Sep 2022Udinese4–0AS Roma

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	AS Roma	Udinese	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.20
Conceded per game	0.50	1.50
Match goals	1.50	2.70	2.80
Over 1.5	30%	80%
Over 2.5	20%	50%	53%
Over 3.5	0%	30%
Both teams scored	20%	70%	46%
Clean sheets	50%	20%
Failed to score	30%	10%
Games	10	10

	AS Roma	Udinese	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	1.20
Conceded per game	0.80	1.50
Match goals	2.00	2.70	2.80
Over 1.5	60%	80%
Over 2.5	40%	50%	53%
Over 3.5	0%	30%
Both teams scored	40%	70%	46%
Clean sheets	30%	20%
Failed to score	30%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	AS Roma	Udinese	League
Corners
Corners won	5.90	4.33
Corners conceded	3.60	5.44
Match total	9.50	9.77	8.92
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	1.90	2.30
Opponent cards	2.40	1.60
Match total	4.30	3.90	4.00
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10

	AS Roma	Udinese	League
Corners
Corners won	6.20	4.33
Corners conceded	3.50	5.44
Match total	9.70	9.77	8.92
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	2.10	2.30
Opponent cards	2.60	1.60
Match total	4.70	3.90	4.00
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Giuseppe Collu 15 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.07league 3.90

Red cards0.00league 0.12

Cards 5+27%league 39%

Fouls24.7league 25.9

Penalties0.20league 0.31

Home wins40%league 36%

AS Roma1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W30 Aug 25A · Pisa1–01

Udinese1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

L23 Apr 25A · Torino0–22

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.