AS Roma
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
AS Roma were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. AS Roma had 4.1 days of rest, VfB Stuttgart 4.2 and had to travel 809 km.
Away travel809 kmRest days4.1 · 4.2Matches / 14d2 · 3
AS Roma45%
Draw26%
VfB Stuttgart29%
AS Roma45%
Draw27%
VfB Stuttgart29%
AS Roma46%
Draw26%
VfB Stuttgart29%
AS Roma37%
Draw26%
VfB Stuttgart36%
AS Roma44%
Draw27%
VfB Stuttgart29%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Roma)
No weather data yet
RefereeJohn Brooks
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.23
- Matches 96
Team strength
AS Roma
VfB Stuttgart
71
L90 StrengthIn forecast
70
71
Current StrengthIn forecast
67
72
AttackIn forecast
70
75
DefenceIn forecast
58
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisVfB Stuttgart
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AS RomaVfB Stuttgart
1.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
0.83
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.83
1.55
xGVia Att/Def
1.64
0.81
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.01
+0.12
Goals minus xGContext
+0.36
83%
Scored inContext
67%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
14.33
ShotsContext
17.17
5.17
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.67
36%
On target shareContext
33%
9.33
Shots in the boxContext
11.83
65%
Box shareContext
70%
12%
ConversionContext
12%
3.75
OffsidesContext
1.50
8.67
Shots allowedContext
10.33
2.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.17
2.17
BlocksContext
3.33
1.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.60
67%
Save rateContext
72%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
492
PassesContext
516
414
Accurate passesContext
448
84%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.95
14.50
FoulsContext
14.17
13.17
Fouls sufferedContext
14.50
2.33
Yellow cardsContext
2.33
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.40
0.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.26
xGVia Att/Def
1.69
1.05
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.30
+0.14
Goals minus xGContext
+0.71
70%
Scored inContext
80%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.80
ShotsContext
14.90
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.90
34%
On target shareContext
40%
9.67
Shots in the boxContext
10.10
71%
Box shareContext
67%
11%
ConversionContext
16%
2.71
OffsidesContext
2.50
9.60
Shots allowedContext
11.50
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
3.50
BlocksContext
3.60
3.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.44
91%
Save rateContext
61%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
483
PassesContext
487
400
Accurate passesContext
411
83%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.96
13.90
FoulsContext
9.30
12.60
Fouls sufferedContext
12.40
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
AS Roma
Rest4.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,051 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
VfB Stuttgart
Rest4.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel809 km590 km in 14d
Schedule load27%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| AS Roma |
VfB Stuttgart |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 27 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.1Serie A 2025-2026, 18 Jan | 4.2Bundesliga 2025-2026, 18 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 809 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,051 km | 590 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 5 | 1 / 3 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3 | 2.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
AS Roma
Confirmed XI
99M. Svilar(G)
87D. Ghilardi
24J. Ziółkowski
19M. Çelik
12K. Tsimikas
17K. Koné
61N. Pisilli
2D. Rensch
7L. Pellegrini
18M. Soulé
11E. Ferguson
VfB Stuttgart
Confirmed XI
33A. Nübel(G)
3R. Hendriks
24J. Chabot
29Finn Jeltsch
7M. Mittelstädt
30Chema Andrés
16A. Karazor
22L. Assignon
10C. Führich
18J. Leweling
26D. Undav
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences AS Roma
Scores -0.06 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
VfB Stuttgart
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- AS Roma-0.6 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- VfB Stuttgart+0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
AS Roma · Home
1.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.33
VfB Stuttgart · Away
1.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| AS Roma | VfB Stuttgart | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.67 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.83 | 0.83 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.83 | 2.89 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 50% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 33% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 33% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| AS Roma | VfB Stuttgart | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 2.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.60 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 3.90 | 2.89 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 80% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 70% | |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 60% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| AS Roma | VfB Stuttgart | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.83 | 6.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.50 | 2.67 | |
| Match total | 9.33 | 9.00 | 9.10 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 3/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 2/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 2/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.33 | 2.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 3.33 | |
| Match total | 4.33 | 5.66 | 4.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 83% 5/6 | 83% 5/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 67% 4/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| AS Roma | VfB Stuttgart | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.80 | 4.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.90 | 3.44 | |
| Match total | 6.70 | 8.33 | 9.10 |
| Over 8.5 | 20% 2/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 10% 1/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 4.50 | 4.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · John Brooks 96 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.38league 4.12
Red cards0.13league 0.21
Cards 5+49%league 42%
Fouls22.7league 24.2
Penalties0.23league 0.36
Home wins54%league 49%
AS RomaNo previous matches with this referee.
VfB StuttgartNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
AS Roma6 games · scored 10 · conceded 5
3
1
0-15
2
16-30
3
31-45
3
46-60
61-75
1
2
76-90
VfB Stuttgart6 games · scored 12 · conceded 5
1
0-15
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
1
61-75
4
2
76-90
AS Roma10 games · scored 14 · conceded 6
3
1
0-15
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
VfB Stuttgart10 games · scored 24 · conceded 15
1
2
0-15
4
1
16-30
7
2
31-45
5
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
6
7
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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