Aston Villa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Aston Villa were clear favourites.
Aston Villa were the stronger side on L90 Strength (84 vs 52). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Bologna. Aston Villa had 4.3 days of rest, Bologna 4.1 and had to travel 1,316 km.
Away travel1,316 kmRest days4.3 · 4.1Matches / 14d2 · 3
Aston Villa63%
Draw22%
Bologna15%
Aston Villa67%
Draw20%
Bologna13%
Aston Villa62%
Draw22%
Bologna15%
Aston Villa55%
Draw25%
Bologna20%
Aston Villa62%
Draw23%
Bologna15%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Birmingham)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainJose Maria Sanchez Martinez
- Cards per match 4.7
- Penalties per match 0.27
- Matches 56
Team strength
Aston Villa
Bologna
84
L90 StrengthIn forecast
52
82
Current StrengthIn forecast
47
83
AttackIn forecast
35
78
DefenceIn forecast
48
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBologna
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Aston VillaBologna
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
0.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.33
1.06
xGVia Att/Def
1.30
0.53
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.43
+0.94
Goals minus xGContext
+0.70
100%
Scored inContext
100%
67%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
8.00
ShotsContext
14.33
2.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.67
29%
On target shareContext
40%
4.67
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
56%
Box shareContext
64%
25%
ConversionContext
14%
1.00
OffsidesContext
2.67
10.67
Shots allowedContext
13.00
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
4.00
BlocksContext
4.50
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
89%
Save rateContext
50%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
428
PassesContext
444
359
Accurate passesContext
358
84%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.94
Team ratingContext
6.72
11.00
FoulsContext
19.33
12.67
Fouls sufferedContext
17.33
1.33
Yellow cardsContext
3.33
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.09
xGVia Att/Def
1.14
1.10
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.15
+0.21
Goals minus xGContext
+0.26
90%
Scored inContext
90%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
12.20
ShotsContext
13.50
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
29%
On target shareContext
30%
7.20
Shots in the boxContext
8.60
60%
Box shareContext
65%
11%
ConversionContext
10%
1.71
OffsidesContext
2.60
11.90
Shots allowedContext
10.00
3.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.60
3.80
BlocksContext
2.78
2.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.22
74%
Save rateContext
59%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
458
PassesContext
471
392
Accurate passesContext
394
86%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.88
10.00
FoulsContext
14.00
12.20
Fouls sufferedContext
15.10
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Aston Villa
Rest4.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km2,777 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Bologna
Rest4.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel1,316 km252 km in 14d
Schedule load27%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Aston Villa |
Bologna |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Moderate · 27 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.3Premier League 2025-2026, 12 Apr | 4.1Serie A 2025-2026, 12 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,316 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,777 km | 252 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 2 / 4 | 2 / 3 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 2.8 | 3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Aston Villa
Confirmed XI
23E. Martínez(G)
12L. Digne
14Pau Torres
4E. Konsa
2M. Cash
8Y. Tielemans
24A. Onana
10E. Buendía
27M. Rogers
7J. McGinn
11O. Watkins
Bologna
Confirmed XI
13F. Ravaglia(G)
17João Mário
16N. Casale
41M. Vitík
33Juan Miranda
6N. Moro
8R. Freuler
11J. Rowe
19L. Ferguson
10F. Bernardeschi
9S. Castro
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Aston Villa
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Bologna
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Aston Villa+0.4 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Bologna+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Aston Villa · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Bologna · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 4.00
- Conceded
- 3.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
3 Aston Villa wins0 draws0 Bologna wins
Goals per game2.00 – 0.33
Over 2.533%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets67% · 0%
- 9 Apr 2026Bologna1–3Aston Villa
- 25 Sep 2025Aston Villa1–0Bologna
- 22 Oct 2024Aston Villa2–0Bologna
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Aston Villa | Bologna | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.33 | 2.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.33 | 4.33 | 2.84 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 67% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 100% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Aston Villa | Bologna | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.60 | 2.84 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 40% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Aston Villa | Bologna | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 4.33 | |
| Match total | 7.00 | 9.33 | 8.78 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 1/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 1/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.33 | 3.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 2.33 | 5.33 | 4.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Aston Villa | Bologna | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.56 | 5.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.11 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 9.67 | 9.30 | 8.78 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 4.00 | 4.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez Spain · 56 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.38league 4.38
Red cards0.32league 0.29
Cards 5+50%league 57%
Fouls24.6league 26.0
Penalties0.27league 0.19
Home wins50%league 43%
Aston Villa2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.1.5 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W12 Mar 26A · Lille1–02
- W15 Apr 25H · Paris Saint Germain3–21
BolognaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Aston Villa3 games · scored 6 · conceded 1
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
2
46-60
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
Bologna3 games · scored 6 · conceded 7
0-15
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
Aston Villa10 games · scored 13 · conceded 12
2
0-15
1
16-30
1
4
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
3
61-75
4
3
76-90
Bologna10 games · scored 14 · conceded 12
2
0-15
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
4
3
46-60
3
61-75
4
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
