Aston Villa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Aston Villa were slight favourites.
Aston Villa were the stronger side on L90 Strength (83 vs 76). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Brentford. Aston Villa were without M. Cash and A. Onana. Brentford were without N. Collins and M. Jensen. Aston Villa had 21.1 days of rest, Brentford 21.8 and had to travel 155 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel155 kmRest days21.1 · 21.8Matches / 14d0 · 0
Aston Villa49%
Draw23%
Brentford28%
Aston Villa50%
Draw25%
Brentford25%
Aston Villa48%
Draw23%
Brentford28%
Aston Villa41%
Draw24%
Brentford35%
Aston Villa49%
Draw23%
Brentford28%
Over 2.5 61%
Both score 61%
Likeliest score 1–1
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Birmingham)
13°CPartly cloudy
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 20 km/h
- Humidity 49%
RefereeCraig Pawson
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.23
- Matches 149
Team strength
Aston Villa
Brentford
83
L90 StrengthIn forecast
76
82
Current StrengthIn forecast
75
83
AttackIn forecast
73
78
DefenceIn forecast
73
69
Form indexContext
79
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBrentford
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Aston VillaBrentford
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
0.91
xGVia Att/Def
1.98
1.84
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.26
-0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.02
40%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
9.60
ShotsContext
16.20
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
25%
On target shareContext
28%
6.00
Shots in the boxContext
11.80
60%
Box shareContext
71%
8%
ConversionContext
12%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.00
16.20
Shots allowedContext
13.40
5.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
2.75
BlocksContext
4.00
3.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.40
69%
Save rateContext
74%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
406
PassesContext
376
342
Accurate passesContext
291
84%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.65
Team ratingContext
7.01
11.40
FoulsContext
14.40
10.60
Fouls sufferedContext
9.00
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.50
xGVia Att/Def
1.69
1.57
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.63
+0.30
Goals minus xGContext
+0.01
70%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
13.00
ShotsContext
13.60
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
37%
On target shareContext
29%
8.40
Shots in the boxContext
9.70
63%
Box shareContext
69%
14%
ConversionContext
13%
1.75
OffsidesContext
2.00
14.60
Shots allowedContext
15.60
4.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.60
3.50
BlocksContext
5.25
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.10
69%
Save rateContext
73%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
405
PassesContext
383
344
Accurate passesContext
303
85%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.92
11.00
FoulsContext
11.90
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
8.50
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Aston Villa
LDWLW
Rest21.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 69 · 7 pts vs 4.8 for an average club · -0.5 vs expected
Brentford
WDDDW
Rest21.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel155 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 79 · 9 pts vs 5.4 for an average club · +1.4 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Aston Villa |
Brentford |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 21.1Premier League 2026-2027, 19 Sep | 21.8Premier League 2026-2027, 18 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 155 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.2 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Aston Villa
Confirmed XI
1Z. Suzuki(G)
13M. Ruggeri
5T. Mings
3V. Lindelöf
2M. Cash
35João Gomes
8B. Kamara
44J. Manzambi
10E. Buendía
7J. McGinn
11N. Jackson
Brentford
Confirmed XI
1C. Kelleher(G)
25E. Diouf
20K. Ajer
44J. Schuster
33M. Kayode
27V. Janelt
6Y. Yarmoliuk
7K. Schade
23K. Lewis-Potter
19J. Anthony
9Thiago
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Aston Villa
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.05 goals
Attack line −9.9% · Defence line −22.7% of weighted minutes
- DEF M. Cash Starter 6.77 Def −13.4%
- MID A. Onana Starter 7.05 Att −9.9% Def −4.7%
- DEF I. Maatsen Rotation 6.58 Def −4.7%
Brentford
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.08 goals
Attack line −25.8% · Defence line −29.5% of weighted minutes
- DEF N. Collins Starter 6.78 Def −10.9%
- MID M. Jensen Starter 7.04 Att −6.7% Def −4.8%
- DEF S. van den Berg Starter 6.97 Def −9.5%
- ATT D. Ouattara Starter 6.91 Att −13.0%
- MID M. Damsgaard Starter 7.02 Att −6.1% Def −4.3%
Total impact vs full squads
- Aston Villa+1.2 pp
- Draw-0.5 pp
- Brentford-0.7 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Aston Villa · Home
0.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 1.50
Brentford · Away
1.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-0
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Aston Villa | Brentford |
|---|---|---|
| Tottenham | W 3–2 A | W 3–0 H |
| Points | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
4 Aston Villa wins3 draws3 Brentford wins
Goals per game1.60 – 1.10
Over 2.550%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets20% · 20%
- 1 Feb 2026Aston Villa0–1Brentford
- 23 Aug 2025Brentford1–0Aston Villa
- 8 Mar 2025Brentford0–1Aston Villa
- 4 Dec 2024Aston Villa3–1Brentford
- 6 Apr 2024Aston Villa3–3Brentford
- 17 Dec 2023Brentford1–2Aston Villa
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Aston Villa | Brentford | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.80 | 3.13 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 0% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Aston Villa | Brentford | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 2.90 | 3.13 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 70% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Aston Villa | Brentford | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 4.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.80 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 7.80 | 9.40 | 9.42 |
| Over 8.5 | 20% 1/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 1/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 1/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 3.80 | 3.96 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 3/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 2/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Aston Villa | Brentford | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.40 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.90 | 6.60 | |
| Match total | 9.30 | 11.10 | 9.42 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 4.40 | 3.96 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Craig Pawson 149 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.90league 3.78
Red cards0.10league 0.12
Cards 5+38%league 41%
Fouls22.7league 23.0
Penalties0.23league 0.18
Home wins41%league 37%
Aston Villa17 with this referee
Record6-4-7
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.7
Pens for · against2 · 0
Reds1
- L27 Feb 26A · Wolves0–23
- W10 Jan 26A · Tottenham2–12
- D16 Aug 25H · Newcastle0–02
- L22 Apr 25A · Manchester City1–23
- D30 Dec 24H · Brighton2–22
Brentford6 with this referee
Record3-2-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.3
Pens for · against1 · 1
- W2 May 26H · West Ham3–01
- D3 Mar 26A · Bournemouth0–01
- W27 Sep 25H · Manchester United3–12
- D25 May 25A · Wolves1–11
- L16 Sep 23A · Newcastle0–15
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Aston Villa4 games · scored 4 · conceded 8
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
46-60
2
61-75
1
3
76-90
Brentford5 games · scored 10 · conceded 4
1
0-15
16-30
3
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
Aston Villa9 games · scored 18 · conceded 15
1
2
0-15
1
4
16-30
6
1
31-45
4
3
46-60
4
1
61-75
2
4
76-90
Brentford10 games · scored 17 · conceded 12
2
2
0-15
16-30
4
2
31-45
4
4
46-60
2
1
61-75
5
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
