Aston Villa vs Fenerbahce – 14 Oct 2026

UEFA Champions League Matchday 2 Wed, Oct 14 · 20:00 Villa Park, Birmingham

Aston Villa 12th · 3 pts · 1 played W

6–0Full time

Fenerbahce 25th · 1 pts · 1 played D

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Aston Villa were slight favourites.

Aston Villa were the stronger side on L90 Strength (83 vs 65). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Fenerbahce. Aston Villa were without A. Onana. Fenerbahce were without M. Guendouzi and J. Oosterwolde. Aston Villa had 4.2 days of rest, Fenerbahce 4.1 and had to travel 2,645 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel2,645 kmRest days4.2 · 4.1Matches / 14d1 · 1

Aston Villa59%

Draw20%

Fenerbahce21%

Expected goals 2.24 – 1.27

Aston Villa58%

Draw23%

Fenerbahce19%

Expected goals 1.86 – 0.96

Aston Villa58%

Draw20%

Fenerbahce22%

Expected goals 2.17 – 1.27

Aston Villa51%

Draw22%

Fenerbahce27%

Expected goals 2.00 – 1.43

Aston Villa60%

Draw20%

Fenerbahce21%

Expected goals 2.24 – 1.26

Over 2.5 68% Both score 64% Likeliest score 2–1

Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Birmingham)

16°COvercast

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 20 km/h
Humidity 71%

RefereeIvan Kružliak

Cards per match 4.5
Penalties per match 0.30
Matches 40

Team strength

Aston Villa

Fenerbahce

83 L90 StrengthIn forecast 65

82 Current StrengthIn forecast 62

83 AttackIn forecast 75

78 DefenceIn forecast 53

72 Form indexContext 46

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Aston Villa

Attack+20%

Defense risk−3%

Fenerbahce

Attack−37%

Defense risk+70%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

Aston Villa

Fenerbahce

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.30

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90

1.54 xGVia Att/Def 2.51

1.52 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.20

+0.26 Goals minus xGContext -0.21

70% Scored inContext 90%

20% Clean sheetsContext 40%

13.20 ShotsContext 16.11

6.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.11

36% On target shareContext 44%

8.90 Shots in the boxContext 12.00

65% Box shareContext 72%

14% ConversionContext 16%

1.75 OffsidesContext 2.22

14.50 Shots allowedContext 13.11

4.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.25

3.25 BlocksContext 3.44

3.30 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.13

70% Save rateContext 79%

46% PossessionIn forecast 50%

393 PassesContext 444

331 Accurate passesContext 381

84% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.83 Team ratingContext 7.00

10.90 FoulsContext 12.89

12.60 Fouls sufferedContext 11.56

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Aston Villa DWLWD

Rest4.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 72 · 8 pts vs 5.4 for an average club · -0.2 vs expected

D10 OctH · Brentford2–21.7 xPts
W19 SepA · Tottenham3–21.5 xPts
L12 SepH · Nottingham Forest1–21.8 xPts
W8 SepA · Club Brugge KV3–21.3 xPts
D5 SepA · Hull City0–01.9 xPts

Fenerbahce LDDWW

Rest4.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel2,645 km1,940 km in 14d

Schedule load25%Moderate

Form 46 · 8 pts vs 8.5 for an average club · -1.3 vs expected

W10 OctA · Rizespor3–01.9 xPts
W20 SepH · Eyüpspor8–02.5 xPts
D14 SepA · Gazişehir Gaziantep0–01.9 xPts
D10 SepH · AS Roma1–11.1 xPts
L5 SepH · Besiktas1–21.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Aston Villa	Fenerbahce
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 25
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4.2Premier League 2026-2027, 10 Oct	4.1Süper Lig 2026-2027, 10 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	2,645 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	1,940 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 2	1 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	2.9	2.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Aston Villa Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Z. Suzuki(G)

29A. Wan-Bissaka 14Pau Torres 3V. Lindelöf 2M. Cash

6R. Barkley 8B. Kamara

19I. Mbaye 44J. Manzambi 7J. McGinn

11N. Jackson

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Fenerbahce Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

31Ederson(G)

3A. Brown 15N. Aké 37M. Škriniar 27Nélson Semedo

6M. Guendouzi 5İ. Yüksek

70O. Aydın 17İ. Kahveci 11M. Greenwood

19V. Muriqi

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Aston Villa Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals

Attack line −8.7% · Defence line −13.8% of weighted minutes

MID A. Onana Starter 7.05 Att −7.9% Def −5.3%
DEF I. Maatsen Rotation 6.58 Def −5.3%
DEF M. Ruggeri Rotation 6.80 Def −2.6%
MID George Hemmings Rotation 6.42 Att −0.9% Def −0.6%

4 without recent minutes (no impact): M. Cissé, T. Harwood-Bellis, L. Goretzka, Brian Madjo

Fenerbahce Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.09 goals

Attack line −25.6% · Defence line −24.6% of weighted minutes

MID M. Guendouzi Core 7.29 Att −13.3% Def −10.3%
DEF J. Oosterwolde Starter 6.78 Def −11.0%
ATT Marco Asensio Starter 7.17 Att −12.3%
DEF M. Müldür Rotation 6.64 Def −3.3%

3 without recent minutes (no impact): A. Diouf, A. Fall, M. Yandaş

Total impact vs full squads

Aston Villa+1.5 pp
Draw-0.6 pp
Fenerbahce-0.9 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Aston Villa · Home No home games yet this season.

Fenerbahce · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

1 Aston Villa wins0 draws0 Fenerbahce wins

Goals per game1.00 – 0.00 Over 2.50% Both scored0% Clean sheets100% · 0%

22 Jan 2026Fenerbahce0–1Aston Villa

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Aston Villa	Fenerbahce	Forecast
Scored per game	3.00	1.00
Conceded per game	2.00	1.00
Match goals	5.00	2.00	3.52
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	0%	68%
Over 3.5	100%	0%
Both teams scored	100%	100%	64%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	1

	Aston Villa	Fenerbahce	Forecast
Scored per game	1.80	2.30
Conceded per game	1.60	0.90
Match goals	3.40	3.20	3.52
Over 1.5	80%	90%
Over 2.5	80%	60%	68%
Over 3.5	50%	20%
Both teams scored	60%	60%	64%
Clean sheets	20%	40%
Failed to score	30%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Aston Villa	Fenerbahce	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	1.00
Corners conceded	4.00	3.00
Match total	9.00	4.00	9.36
Over 8.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	3.00	4.00
Opponent cards	3.00	2.00
Match total	6.00	6.00	3.82
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 4.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1

	Aston Villa	Fenerbahce	League
Corners
Corners won	3.80	6.00
Corners conceded	4.90	3.38
Match total	8.70	9.38	9.36
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	63% 5/8
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	50% 4/8
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	38% 3/8
Cards
Cards	2.20	1.90
Opponent cards	2.20	1.50
Match total	4.40	3.40	3.82
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Ivan Kružliak 40 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.40league 3.62

Red cards0.13league 0.17

Cards 5+53%league 38%

Fouls24.4league 22.8

Penalties0.30league 0.21

Home wins50%league 59%

Aston Villa

No previous matches with this referee.

Fenerbahce

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.