Aston Villa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Aston Villa were clear favourites.
Aston Villa were the stronger side on L90 Strength (80 vs 19). Absences weigh more on Aston Villa. Aston Villa had 5 days of rest, Maccabi Tel Aviv 14 and had to travel.
Rest days5 · 14Matches / 14d2 · 0
Aston Villa83%
Draw12%
Maccabi Tel Aviv5%
Aston Villa83%
Draw12%
Maccabi Tel Aviv5%
Aston Villa83%
Draw12%
Maccabi Tel Aviv5%
Aston Villa77%
Draw15%
Maccabi Tel Aviv8%
Aston Villa82%
Draw13%
Maccabi Tel Aviv6%
Over 2.5 69%
Both score 46%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Birmingham)
No weather data yet
Referee · AustriaJulian Weinberger
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 20
Team strength
Aston Villa
Maccabi Tel Aviv
80
L90 StrengthIn forecast
19
82
Current StrengthIn forecast
19
83
AttackIn forecast
19
78
DefenceIn forecast
20
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMaccabi Tel Aviv
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Aston VillaMaccabi Tel Aviv
1.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.33
0.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.38
xGVia Att/Def
1.23
1.08
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.37
-0.05
Goals minus xGContext
-0.90
100%
Scored inContext
33%
67%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
11.67
ShotsContext
10.67
4.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.33
40%
On target shareContext
31%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
6.00
62%
Box shareContext
57%
11%
ConversionContext
3%
1.67
OffsidesContext
1.33
13.33
Shots allowedContext
12.00
5.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.67
5.00
BlocksContext
4.00
5.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
88%
Save rateContext
57%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
445
PassesContext
393
388
Accurate passesContext
335
87%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.93
Team ratingContext
6.62
13.00
FoulsContext
11.67
16.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.67
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.33
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
0.93
xGVia Att/Def
1.06
1.08
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.19
+0.37
Goals minus xGContext
-0.06
80%
Scored inContext
50%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
10.50
ShotsContext
10.67
3.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
34%
On target shareContext
38%
6.30
Shots in the boxContext
5.75
56%
Box shareContext
61%
12%
ConversionContext
6%
1.89
OffsidesContext
1.83
13.40
Shots allowedContext
10.33
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.67
4.89
BlocksContext
3.50
3.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.17
78%
Save rateContext
59%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
436
PassesContext
417
375
Accurate passesContext
354
86%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.66
10.44
FoulsContext
11.67
14.70
Fouls sufferedContext
12.67
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Aston Villa
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km252 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Maccabi Tel Aviv
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Aston Villa |
Maccabi Tel Aviv |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5Premier League 2025-2026, 1 Nov | 14UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 23 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | — |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 252 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 0 / 0 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 2.8 | 21 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Aston Villa
Confirmed XI
23E. Martínez(G)
22I. Maatsen
14Pau Torres
4E. Konsa
3V. Lindelöf
24A. Onana
26L. Bogarde
19J. Sancho
27M. Rogers
29E. Guessand
17D. Malen
Maccabi Tel Aviv
Confirmed XI
90R. Mishpati(G)
3R. Revivo
5M. Camara
13R. Shlomo
6T. Asante
30I. Noy
28I. Sissokho
29Hélio Varela
42D. Peretz
77O. Davida
19E. Madmon
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Aston Villa
Scores -0.07 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Maccabi Tel Aviv
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Aston Villa-0.8 pp
- Draw+0.4 pp
- Maccabi Tel Aviv+0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Aston Villa · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Maccabi Tel Aviv · Away
1.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Aston Villa | Maccabi Tel Aviv | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 0.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.67 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.33 | 3.58 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 67% | 69% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 33% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 67% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Aston Villa | Maccabi Tel Aviv | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 0.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.10 | 2.33 | 3.58 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 67% | 69% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 33% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 67% | |
| Games | 10 | 3 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Aston Villa | Maccabi Tel Aviv | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.67 | 3.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 9.67 | 9.67 | 9.02 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 3/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 1/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 1/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.33 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.33 | 3.33 | 4.21 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 2/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 1/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Aston Villa | Maccabi Tel Aviv | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.30 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 10.10 | 11.50 | 9.02 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 9/10 | 83% 5/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 83% 5/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 4.20 | 4.21 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Julian Weinberger Austria · 20 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.70league 4.02
Red cards0.20league 0.16
Cards 5+35%league 40%
Fouls23.3league 24.9
Penalties0.30league 0.43
Home wins45%league 48%
Aston VillaNo previous matches with this referee.
Maccabi Tel AvivNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Aston Villa3 games · scored 4 · conceded 2
2
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
76-90
Maccabi Tel Aviv3 games · scored 1 · conceded 6
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
2
61-75
1
76-90
Aston Villa10 games · scored 13 · conceded 8
2
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
Maccabi Tel Aviv10 games · scored 10 · conceded 13
2
1
0-15
2
16-30
2
4
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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