Aston Villa
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Aston Villa82.7%fair odds 1.21
Draw12.0%fair odds 8.36
Maccabi Tel Aviv5.4%fair odds 18.62
Expected goals2.92 – 0.66total 3.58
Likeliest score2–011.9%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Maccabi Tel Aviv
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Aston Villa ↓ · Maccabi Tel Aviv → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.9 | 7.9 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 11.5 | 7.6 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 8.4 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 3.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Aston Villa goals, columns Maccabi Tel Aviv goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–011.9%8.43
- 3–011.5%8.66
- 4–08.4%11.86
- 2–17.9%12.74
- 1–07.8%12.77
- 3–17.6%13.08
- 1–15.7%17.67
- 4–15.6%17.91
- 5–04.9%20.30
- 5–13.3%30.66
Winning margin
42.4%
Aston Villa by 3+
fair 2.36
21.6%
Aston Villa by 2
fair 4.63
18.7%
Aston Villa by 1
fair 5.36
12.0%
Draw
fair 8.36
4.0%
Maccabi Tel Aviv by 1
fair 24.93
1.1%
Maccabi Tel Aviv by 2
fair 90.06
0.3%
Maccabi Tel Aviv by 3+
fair 399.26
Goal distribution
Total goals
3%0
9%1
18%2
21%3
19%4
29%5+
Aston Villa goals
5%0
16%1
23%2
22%3
33%4+
Maccabi Tel Aviv goals
52%0
34%1
11%2
2%3
0%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa win | 82.7% | 81.8% | +0.9 pp |
| Draw | 12.0% | 12.6% | -0.6 pp |
| Maccabi Tel Aviv win | 5.4% | 5.6% | -0.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 69.4% | 67.3% | +2.1 pp |
| Both teams score | 46.1% | 45.1% | +1.0 pp |
| Expected goals Aston Villa | 2.92 | 2.82 | +0.10 |
| Expected goals Maccabi Tel Aviv | 0.66 | 0.65 | +0.02 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Aston Villa win82.7%1.21
- Draw12.0%8.36
- Maccabi Tel Aviv win5.4%18.62
- Double chance Aston Villa or draw94.6%1.06
- Double chance Aston Villa or Maccabi Tel Aviv88.0%1.14
- Double chance Maccabi Tel Aviv or draw17.3%5.77
- Draw no bet Aston Villa93.9%1.06
- Draw no bet Maccabi Tel Aviv6.1%16.39
Goals
- Over 0.596.9%1.03
- Over 1.587.5%1.14
- Over 2.569.4%1.44
- Over 3.548.1%2.08
- Over 4.529.0%3.45
- Under 1.512.5%8.03
- Under 2.530.6%3.27
- Under 3.551.9%1.93
Both teams to score
- Yes46.1%2.17
- No53.9%1.86
- Yes and over 2.540.4%2.47
- Aston Villa win and yes34.2%2.93
- Draw and yes8.9%11.25
- Maccabi Tel Aviv win and yes3.0%32.82
Team goals
- Aston Villa over 0.594.6%1.06
- Aston Villa over 1.578.9%1.27
- Aston Villa over 2.555.9%1.79
- Maccabi Tel Aviv over 0.548.4%2.06
- Maccabi Tel Aviv over 1.514.3%7.00
- Maccabi Tel Aviv over 2.53.0%33.66
- Aston Villa clean sheet51.6%1.94
- Maccabi Tel Aviv clean sheet5.4%18.56
- Aston Villa win to nil48.5%2.06
- Maccabi Tel Aviv win to nil2.3%43.02
Handicap
- Aston Villa −1.564.0%1.56
- Aston Villa −2.542.4%2.36
- Maccabi Tel Aviv +1.536.0%2.78
- Maccabi Tel Aviv +2.557.6%1.74
- Maccabi Tel Aviv −1.51.4%73.48
- Aston Villa +1.598.6%1.01
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record UEFA Europa League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored63
Favourite won52.4%
Avg chance given to result39.5%
1X2 Brier0.592
Over 2.5 called right49.2%
BTTS called right50.8%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 7 | 38.4% | 42.9% |
| 40–50% | 28 | 44.2% | 39.3% |
| 50–60% | 24 | 54.8% | 70.8% |
| 60–70% | 3 | 65.7% | 33.3% |
| 70–80% | 1 | 73.1% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 45 of 63 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5911 | 0.6054 |
| Avg chance given to result | 39.6% | 39.5% |
| Favourite won | 51.1% | 60.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 45 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 63 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.