Aston Villa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Aston Villa
3rd · 33 pts · 16 played
WWWWW
2–1Full time
Manchester United
7th · 26 pts · 16 played
LWDWD
Our take
Aston Villa were slight favourites.
Aston Villa were the stronger side on L90 Strength (86 vs 74). Aston Villa had 7.1 days of rest, Manchester United 5.9 and had to travel 113 km.
Away travel113 kmRest days7.1 · 5.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Aston Villa57%
Draw23%
Manchester United20%
Aston Villa55%
Draw24%
Manchester United21%
Aston Villa57%
Draw23%
Manchester United21%
Aston Villa49%
Draw24%
Manchester United26%
Aston Villa56%
Draw24%
Manchester United20%
Over 2.5 60%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Birmingham)
No weather data yet
RefereeMichael Oliver
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.27
- Matches 197
Team strength
Aston VillaManchester United
86
L90 StrengthIn forecast
74
82
Current StrengthIn forecast
77
83
AttackIn forecast
72
78
DefenceIn forecast
80
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisManchester United
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Aston VillaManchester United
1.56
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.88
1.06
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.63
1.07
xGVia Att/Def
1.92
1.37
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.37
+0.49
Goals minus xGContext
-0.04
69%
Scored inContext
81%
31%
Clean sheetsContext
6%
11.56
ShotsContext
16.63
4.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.69
37%
On target shareContext
34%
7.80
Shots in the boxContext
11.73
62%
Box shareContext
67%
14%
ConversionContext
11%
1.80
OffsidesContext
1.79
12.56
Shots allowedContext
11.06
3.94
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.94
BlocksContext
3.07
2.69
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.57
68%
Save rateContext
58%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
440
PassesContext
461
373
Accurate passesContext
375
85%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.93
10.38
FoulsContext
10.80
14.38
Fouls sufferedContext
12.31
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.44
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.30
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.43
xGVia Att/Def
1.86
1.23
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.26
+0.77
Goals minus xGContext
+0.44
90%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
13.10
ShotsContext
17.10
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.30
46%
On target shareContext
37%
8.70
Shots in the boxContext
12.44
67%
Box shareContext
67%
17%
ConversionContext
14%
1.40
OffsidesContext
1.88
11.30
Shots allowedContext
12.10
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.90
3.10
BlocksContext
3.33
3.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.56
71%
Save rateContext
61%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
464
PassesContext
466
398
Accurate passesContext
378
86%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.92
Team ratingContext
7.01
11.60
FoulsContext
11.33
14.80
Fouls sufferedContext
12.10
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Aston Villa
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km2,064 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Manchester United
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel113 km200 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Aston Villa |
Manchester United |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Premier League 2025-2026, 14 Dec | 5.9Premier League 2025-2026, 15 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 113 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,064 km | 200 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 6 | 1 / 2 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 5.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Aston Villa
Confirmed XI
23E. Martínez(G)
22I. Maatsen
3V. Lindelöf
4E. Konsa
2M. Cash
24A. Onana
44B. Kamara
27M. Rogers
8Y. Tielemans
7J. McGinn
11O. Watkins
Manchester United
Confirmed XI
31S. Lammens(G)
23L. Shaw
26A. Heaven
15L. Yoro
13P. Dorgu
8Bruno Fernandes
25M. Ugarte
2Diogo Dalot
10Matheus Cunha
7Mason Mount
30B. Šeško
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Aston Villa
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Manchester United
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Aston Villa+0.7 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Manchester United-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Aston Villa · Home
2.38points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-1-1
- Scored
- 1.63
- Conceded
- 0.75
Manchester United · Away
1.50points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-2
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 1.75
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Aston Villa | Manchester United |
|---|---|---|
| West Ham | W 3–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| Arsenal | W 2–1 H | L 0–1 H |
| Brighton | W 4–3 A | W 4–2 H |
| Wolves | W 1–0 H | W 4–1 A |
| Bournemouth | W 4–0 H | D 4–4 H |
| Liverpool | L 0–2 A | W 2–1 A |
| Manchester City | W 1–0 H | L 0–3 A |
| Tottenham | W 2–1 A | D 2–2 A |
| Burnley | W 2–1 H | W 3–2 H |
| Fulham | W 3–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Sunderland | D 1–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Everton | D 0–0 A | L 0–1 H |
| Crystal Palace | L 0–3 H | W 2–1 A |
| Brentford | L 0–1 A | L 1–3 A |
| Points | 29 of 42 · 2.07 per game | 22 of 42 · 1.57 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
2 Aston Villa wins2 draws6 Manchester United wins
Goals per game1.10 – 1.60
Over 2.560%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets20% · 30%
- 25 May 2025Manchester United2–0Aston Villa
- 6 Oct 2024Aston Villa0–0Manchester United
- 11 Feb 2024Aston Villa1–2Manchester United
- 26 Dec 2023Manchester United3–2Aston Villa
- 30 Apr 2023Manchester United1–0Aston Villa
- 6 Nov 2022Aston Villa3–1Manchester United
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Aston Villa | Manchester United | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.56 | 1.88 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.06 | 1.63 | |
| Match goals | 2.63 | 3.50 | 3.12 |
| Over 1.5 | 69% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 69% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 44% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 75% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 31% | 6% | |
| Failed to score | 31% | 19% | |
| Games | 16 | 16 |
| Aston Villa | Manchester United | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.20 | 2.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 3.80 | 3.12 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 70% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Aston Villa | Manchester United | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.06 | 4.69 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.88 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 9.94 | 9.19 | 9.85 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 12/16 | 50% 8/16 | |
| Over 9.5 | 69% 11/16 | 44% 7/16 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 8/16 | 25% 4/16 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.56 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.63 | |
| Match total | 4.06 | 4.13 | 3.86 |
| Over 3.5 | 69% 11/16 | 69% 11/16 | |
| Over 4.5 | 38% 6/16 | 50% 8/16 | |
| Aston Villa | Manchester United | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.33 | 4.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.44 | 4.70 | |
| Match total | 7.77 | 9.50 | 9.85 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 4.10 | 3.86 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Michael Oliver 197 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.61league 3.70
Red cards0.14league 0.12
Cards 5+34%league 39%
Fouls22.5league 21.9
Penalties0.27league 0.20
Home wins42%league 48%
Aston Villa13 with this referee
Record6-0-7
Cards · opp.1.9 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 2
Reds1
- W26 Oct 25H · Manchester City1–01
- W22 Feb 25H · Chelsea2–11
- L24 Aug 24H · Arsenal0–21
- W2 Mar 24A · Luton3–24
- W13 Jan 23H · Leeds2–12
Manchester United16 with this referee
Record6-4-6
Cards · opp.2.4 · 1.3
Pens for · against2 · 2
Reds1
- W19 Oct 25A · Liverpool2–12
- L13 Apr 25A · Newcastle1–42
- D5 Jan 25A · Liverpool2–24
- L24 Feb 24H · Fulham1–22
- D17 Dec 23A · Liverpool0–06
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Aston Villa16 games · scored 25 · conceded 17
1
6
0-15
3
3
16-30
6
1
31-45
5
2
46-60
4
2
61-75
6
3
76-90
Manchester United16 games · scored 30 · conceded 26
4
2
0-15
4
3
16-30
6
3
31-45
5
6
46-60
3
4
61-75
8
8
76-90
Aston Villa10 games · scored 22 · conceded 11
2
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
6
2
31-45
5
2
46-60
2
61-75
5
2
76-90
Manchester United10 games · scored 23 · conceded 15
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
5
3
31-45
3
4
46-60
3
1
61-75
7
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
