Aston Villa
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Aston Villa
3rd · 33 pts · 16 played
WWWWW
2–1Full time
Manchester United
7th · 26 pts · 16 played
LWDWD
Aston Villa57.2%fair odds 1.75
Draw22.5%fair odds 4.44
Manchester United20.3%fair odds 4.94
Expected goals2.00 – 1.12total 3.12
Likeliest score1–110.4%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Manchester United
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Aston Villa ↓ · Manchester United → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 10.4 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Aston Villa goals, columns Manchester United goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–110.4%9.59
- 2–19.9%10.11
- 2–08.9%11.29
- 1–08.3%11.99
- 3–16.6%15.18
- 3–05.9%16.96
- 1–25.5%18.07
- 2–25.5%18.09
- 0–05.0%20.15
- 0–14.4%22.56
Winning margin
17.0%
Aston Villa by 3+
fair 5.89
17.6%
Aston Villa by 2
fair 5.69
22.7%
Aston Villa by 1
fair 4.41
22.5%
Draw
fair 4.44
12.5%
Manchester United by 1
fair 8.03
5.5%
Manchester United by 2
fair 18.18
2.3%
Manchester United by 3+
fair 43.32
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
13%1
22%2
22%3
17%4
20%5+
Aston Villa goals
14%0
27%1
27%2
18%3
14%4+
Manchester United goals
33%0
37%1
20%2
8%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa win | 57.2% | 55.8% | +1.4 pp |
| Draw | 22.5% | 23.9% | -1.4 pp |
| Manchester United win | 20.3% | 20.3% | -0.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 60.2% | 54.3% | +5.9 pp |
| Both teams score | 58.7% | 54.3% | +4.4 pp |
| Expected goals Aston Villa | 2.00 | 1.83 | +0.17 |
| Expected goals Manchester United | 1.12 | 1.02 | +0.10 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Aston Villa win57.2%1.75
- Draw22.5%4.44
- Manchester United win20.3%4.94
- Double chance Aston Villa or draw79.7%1.25
- Double chance Aston Villa or Manchester United77.5%1.29
- Double chance Manchester United or draw42.8%2.34
- Draw no bet Aston Villa73.9%1.35
- Draw no bet Manchester United26.1%3.82
Goals
- Over 0.595.0%1.05
- Over 1.582.3%1.22
- Over 2.560.2%1.66
- Over 3.537.9%2.64
- Over 4.520.4%4.89
- Under 1.517.7%5.64
- Under 2.539.8%2.51
- Under 3.562.1%1.61
Both teams to score
- Yes58.7%1.70
- No41.3%2.42
- Yes and over 2.548.3%2.07
- Aston Villa win and yes29.5%3.39
- Draw and yes17.5%5.70
- Manchester United win and yes11.7%8.58
Team goals
- Aston Villa over 0.586.4%1.16
- Aston Villa over 1.559.3%1.69
- Aston Villa over 2.532.3%3.10
- Manchester United over 0.567.3%1.49
- Manchester United over 1.530.7%3.25
- Manchester United over 2.510.3%9.70
- Aston Villa clean sheet32.7%3.06
- Manchester United clean sheet13.6%7.37
- Aston Villa win to nil27.8%3.60
- Manchester United win to nil8.6%11.63
Handicap
- Aston Villa −1.534.6%2.89
- Aston Villa −2.517.0%5.89
- Manchester United +1.565.4%1.53
- Manchester United +2.583.0%1.20
- Manchester United −1.57.8%12.81
- Aston Villa +1.592.2%1.08
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Premier League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored168
Favourite won55.4%
Avg chance given to result40.6%
1X2 Brier0.589
Over 2.5 called right56.5%
BTTS called right52.4%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 25 | 38.2% | 48.0% |
| 40–50% | 63 | 45.1% | 50.8% |
| 50–60% | 45 | 54.2% | 53.3% |
| 60–70% | 19 | 63.9% | 73.7% |
| 70–80% | 15 | 73.5% | 66.7% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 86.8% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 138 of 168 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5859 | 0.5704 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.9% | 41.9% |
| Favourite won | 55.8% | 55.1% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 138 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 168 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.